Preseason Rankings
Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#279
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.2#289
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#285
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#268
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 6.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 19.8% 33.8% 13.7%
.500 or above in Conference 37.5% 49.1% 32.4%
Conference Champion 4.9% 7.9% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 20.3% 12.0% 24.0%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.2%
First Round4.3% 6.3% 3.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 30.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 48 - 710 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2025 126   UC Santa Barbara L 64-70 30%    
  Nov 14, 2025 255   @ UC Davis L 64-68 34%    
  Nov 16, 2025 263   Presbyterian W 66-64 57%    
  Nov 18, 2025 13   @ UCLA L 52-79 1%    
  Nov 21, 2025 91   @ California L 62-77 9%    
  Nov 29, 2025 219   @ Pacific L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 02, 2025 24   @ Baylor L 54-79 1%    
  Dec 20, 2025 174   @ California Baptist L 62-70 24%    
  Dec 22, 2025 176   @ Cal St. Northridge L 69-77 23%    
  Jan 01, 2026 287   @ Idaho St. L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 03, 2026 281   @ Weber St. L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 10, 2026 217   @ Portland St. L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 15, 2026 254   Northern Arizona W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 17, 2026 194   Northern Colorado L 70-71 45%    
  Jan 22, 2026 239   @ Idaho L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 24, 2026 259   @ Eastern Washington L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 29, 2026 147   Montana St. L 64-68 36%    
  Jan 31, 2026 183   Montana L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 02, 2026 281   Weber St. W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 07, 2026 217   Portland St. L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 12, 2026 194   @ Northern Colorado L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 14, 2026 254   @ Northern Arizona L 66-71 36%    
  Feb 19, 2026 259   Eastern Washington W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 21, 2026 239   Idaho W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 26, 2026 183   @ Montana L 65-73 26%    
  Feb 28, 2026 147   @ Montana St. L 61-71 20%    
  Mar 02, 2026 287   Idaho St. W 68-64 62%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 8.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 4.7 2.1 0.4 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.1 2.5 0.2 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.4 5.4 2.6 0.3 12.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.1 4.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.5 1.8 3.5 3.9 2.9 1.2 0.1 13.9 10th
Total 0.5 1.8 3.9 5.8 8.0 9.6 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.0 8.0 6.9 5.4 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 96.3% 0.5    0.5 0.1
15-3 88.1% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 62.1% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 38.2% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 10.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 97.7% 97.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 41.1% 41.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 34.9% 34.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.1% 37.5% 37.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.0% 24.0% 24.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
13-5 3.3% 17.7% 17.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 2.7
12-6 5.4% 12.7% 12.7% 16.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 4.7
11-7 6.9% 8.3% 8.3% 16.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 6.3
10-8 8.0% 6.4% 6.4% 17.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.5
9-9 10.0% 4.4% 4.4% 17.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.6
8-10 10.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.4 0.3 10.6
7-11 10.9% 1.1% 1.1% 18.7 0.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 11.0% 0.6% 0.6% 17.8 0.1 11.0
5-13 9.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.6
4-14 8.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.0
3-15 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.8
2-16 3.9% 3.9
1-17 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.8
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.8 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%