Preseason Rankings
Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#189
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#109
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#270
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#127
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.4% 44.1% 27.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.4 13.4 14.7
.500 or above 62.9% 93.0% 62.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 94.9% 91.2%
Conference Champion 42.7% 67.3% 42.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.4% 1.5% 5.5%
First Round27.3% 44.4% 26.9%
Second Round1.2% 3.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 32 - 32 - 10
Quad 414 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 17   @ Arkansas L 61-83 2%    
  Nov 05, 2025 43   @ Marquette L 61-78 6%    
  Nov 18, 2025 48   @ Washington L 64-80 8%    
  Nov 21, 2025 159   @ San Jose St. L 66-71 35%    
  Nov 29, 2025 257   @ Northwestern St. W 66-65 50%    
  Dec 08, 2025 38   @ Texas L 62-80 6%    
  Dec 10, 2025 197   @ Texas St. L 67-70 40%    
  Dec 16, 2025 174   @ California Baptist L 66-70 37%    
  Dec 21, 2025 24   @ Baylor L 58-78 5%    
  Dec 29, 2025 15   @ Illinois L 65-88 3%    
  Dec 31, 2025 323   @ Alcorn St. W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 03, 2026 290   Texas Southern W 74-66 76%    
  Jan 05, 2026 340   Prairie View W 79-67 86%    
  Jan 10, 2026 338   @ Florida A&M W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 12, 2026 249   @ Bethune-Cookman L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 17, 2026 284   @ Grambling St. W 65-63 56%    
  Jan 24, 2026 364   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 87-63 98%    
  Jan 26, 2026 365   Mississippi Valley W 78-52 99%    
  Jan 31, 2026 323   @ Alcorn St. W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 02, 2026 238   @ Jackson St. L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 07, 2026 327   Alabama A&M W 79-68 82%    
  Feb 09, 2026 289   Alabama St. W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 14, 2026 340   @ Prairie View W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 16, 2026 290   @ Texas Southern W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 21, 2026 284   @ Grambling St. W 65-63 56%    
  Feb 26, 2026 338   Florida A&M W 75-63 84%    
  Feb 28, 2026 249   Bethune-Cookman W 74-68 68%    
  Mar 03, 2026 289   @ Alabama St. W 71-69 58%    
  Mar 05, 2026 327   @ Alabama A&M W 76-71 66%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 13 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.7 9.3 10.0 8.2 4.8 40.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.3 5.9 3.1 0.9 0.1 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.9 3.4 0.8 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.4 0.2 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.2 0.2 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.8 6.4 8.4 10.5 12.4 12.4 12.4 10.9 8.3 4.8 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.8    4.8 0.0
17-1 98.6% 8.2    7.7 0.5
16-2 91.9% 10.0    8.5 1.4 0.0
15-3 74.8% 9.3    6.2 2.8 0.3
14-4 45.9% 5.7    2.6 2.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 19.9% 2.5    0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.8% 40.8 30.5 8.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.8% 60.9% 60.9% 13.3 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9
17-1 8.3% 51.5% 51.5% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.1 4.0
16-2 10.9% 44.1% 44.1% 15.2 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.7 0.7 6.1
15-3 12.4% 36.2% 36.2% 16.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.3 7.9
14-4 12.4% 29.2% 29.2% 17.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.8 8.8
13-5 12.4% 22.1% 22.1% 17.8 0.2 1.0 1.9 9.7
12-6 10.5% 16.3% 16.3% 18.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 8.8
11-7 8.4% 11.9% 11.9% 17.3 0.1 1.0 7.4
10-8 6.4% 7.4% 7.4% 16.9 0.0 0.5 5.9
9-9 4.8% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.3 4.5
8-10 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 2.9
7-11 2.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 26.4% 26.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.3 3.3 6.2 8.2 9.3 73.6 0.0%