IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Texas Tech
Big 12
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+17.8	#12
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.1	#264
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+10.5	#13

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.3	#19

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.0%	2.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	9.4%	9.4%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	20.3%	20.4%	7.7%
Top 4 Seed	42.8%	42.8%	7.7%
Top 6 Seed	61.5%	61.6%	15.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	85.3%	85.4%	34.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	83.6%	83.7%	34.7%
Average Seed	4.9	4.9	6.6

.500 or above	94.8%	94.9%	54.1%
.500 or above in Conference	84.7%	84.8%	31.1%
Conference Champion	12.1%	12.2%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.5%	0.5%	3.8%

First Four	3.6%	3.6%	3.8%
First Round	83.6%	83.7%	34.7%
Second Round	68.9%	69.0%	19.1%
Sweet Sixteen	39.9%	39.9%	7.7%
Elite Eight	20.6%	20.7%	3.8%
Final Four	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%
Championship Game	5.1%	5.1%	0.0%
National Champion	2.4%	2.4%	0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 6	4 - 6
Quad 1b	3 - 2	7 - 8
Quad 2	5 - 1	12 - 9
Quad 3	4 - 0	17 - 10
Quad 4	5 - 0	22 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	326	Lindenwood	W	87-56	99.8%
Nov 07, 2025	199	Sam Houston St.	W	83-60	98%
Nov 11, 2025	15	@ Illinois	L	75-78	41%
Nov 14, 2025	216	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	84-60	98%
Nov 20, 2025	67	Wake Forest	W	75-66	79%
Nov 26, 2025	317	New Orleans	W	89-59	99%
Nov 30, 2025	157	Wyoming	W	78-57	97%
Dec 07, 2025	53	LSU	W	75-68	74%
Dec 13, 2025	17	Arkansas	W	73-72	53%
Dec 16, 2025	194	Northern Colorado	W	85-62	98%
Dec 20, 2025	3	Duke	L	68-72	35%
Dec 28, 2025	164	Winthrop	W	88-67	97%
Jan 03, 2026	73	Oklahoma St.	W	82-69	87%
Jan 06, 2026	1	@ Houston	L	59-69	21%
Jan 10, 2026	84	@ Colorado	W	74-66	76%
Jan 14, 2026	89	Utah	W	80-65	90%
Jan 17, 2026	9	BYU	W	75-73	59%
Jan 20, 2026	24	@ Baylor	L	69-70	49%
Jan 24, 2026	1	Houston	L	62-66	39%
Jan 31, 2026	74	@ Central Florida	W	79-72	73%
Feb 02, 2026	14	Kansas	W	73-70	61%
Feb 08, 2026	58	@ West Virginia	W	69-64	67%
Feb 11, 2026	84	Colorado	W	77-63	88%
Feb 14, 2026	11	@ Arizona	L	74-77	40%
Feb 17, 2026	69	@ Arizona St.	W	76-69	72%
Feb 21, 2026	57	Kansas St.	W	75-64	83%
Feb 24, 2026	45	Cincinnati	W	72-63	77%
Feb 28, 2026	20	@ Iowa St.	L	70-72	45%
Mar 03, 2026	56	TCU	W	74-63	83%
Mar 07, 2026	9	@ BYU	L	72-76	38%
Projected Record						21 - 9	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.5	3.8	3.9	2.1	0.4		12.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	2.7	5.4	3.5	0.8	0.0			12.9	2nd
3rd												0.4	3.2	5.8	3.2	0.4	0.0				13.1	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	2.7	5.7	3.2	0.5						12.3	4th
5th										0.2	1.8	5.4	3.3	0.5	0.0						11.2	5th
6th									0.0	0.9	4.1	3.7	0.6	0.0							9.4	6th
7th									0.3	2.9	3.6	0.9	0.0								7.8	7th
8th								0.1	1.4	3.0	1.1	0.1									5.7	8th
9th							0.0	0.6	2.2	1.6	0.2										4.7	9th
10th						0.0	0.2	1.5	1.6	0.2	0.0										3.5	10th
11th						0.0	0.7	1.3	0.5	0.0											2.5	11th
12th					0.0	0.3	1.0	0.5	0.0												1.9	12th
13th				0.0	0.1	0.7	0.7	0.0													1.5	13th
14th				0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1														0.8	14th
15th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1															0.4	15th
16th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0															0.2	16th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.5	2.7	4.1	6.1	8.9	11.1	13.1	13.3	12.6	10.6	7.7	4.7	2.2	0.4			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
17-1	99.4%	2.1		2.0	0.2
16-2	82.3%	3.9		2.6	1.2	0.1
15-3	49.6%	3.8		1.6	1.8	0.4	0.0
14-4	14.4%	1.5		0.3	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0
13-5	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	12.1%	12.1		7.0	3.8	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.4%		100.0%	59.1%	40.9%	1.2		0.3	0.1																	100.0%
17-1	2.2%		100.0%	43.7%	56.3%	1.3		1.6	0.6	0.0																100.0%
16-2	4.7%		100.0%	33.1%	66.9%	1.6		2.6	1.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.0												100.0%
15-3	7.7%		100.0%	24.1%	75.9%	2.0		2.6	3.0	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0												100.0%
14-4	10.6%		100.0%	17.1%	82.9%	2.8		1.6	3.0	3.5	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0												100.0%
13-5	12.6%		99.9%	12.5%	87.5%	3.8		0.6	1.8	3.4	3.0	2.1	1.1	0.5	0.0	0.1								0.0		99.9%
12-6	13.3%		99.5%	6.9%	92.6%	4.9		0.1	0.6	1.8	3.2	3.0	2.4	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0						0.1		99.4%
11-7	13.1%		97.2%	4.7%	92.5%	6.0		0.0	0.2	0.8	1.7	2.4	2.8	2.2	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.1						0.4		97.1%
10-8	11.1%		91.2%	2.7%	88.5%	7.3			0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.8	1.9	1.8	1.4	1.0	0.3						1.0		90.9%
9-9	8.9%		77.1%	1.7%	75.3%	8.3				0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.1	1.3	1.5	1.2	0.7	0.0					2.0		76.7%
8-10	6.1%		49.1%	0.9%	48.2%	9.4					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.7	0.1					3.1		48.7%
7-11	4.1%		21.4%	0.9%	20.6%	10.1							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.0					3.2		20.7%
6-12	2.7%		6.3%		6.3%	10.3									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0					2.5		6.3%
5-13	1.5%		1.4%		1.4%	11.3												0.0	0.0					1.5		1.4%
4-14	0.6%																							0.6
3-15	0.2%																							0.2
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		85.3%	10.1%	75.2%	4.9		9.4	10.9	11.6	10.8	9.6	9.1	7.3	5.5	4.8	3.8	2.2	0.1					14.7		83.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	100.0