Preseason Rankings
UC Irvine
Big West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#92
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.3#89
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#134
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#55
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.7% 35.8% 23.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.6
.500 or above 94.2% 96.2% 84.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 96.3% 90.5%
Conference Champion 44.0% 46.6% 31.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round33.6% 35.7% 23.6%
Second Round7.0% 7.6% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.7% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 38 - 49 - 7
Quad 413 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 174   California Baptist W 73-63 82%    
  Nov 15, 2025 281   Weber St. W 76-61 92%    
  Nov 19, 2025 118   @ Utah Valley L 70-71 50%    
  Nov 22, 2025 112   Northern Iowa W 70-65 67%    
  Nov 25, 2025 139   New Mexico St. W 68-64 64%    
  Nov 26, 2025 155   South Dakota St. W 77-71 69%    
  Nov 30, 2025 159   @ San Jose St. W 71-68 61%    
  Dec 04, 2025 256   UC Riverside W 78-64 88%    
  Dec 06, 2025 176   Cal St. Northridge W 81-71 79%    
  Dec 19, 2025 111   Belmont W 78-73 66%    
  Dec 21, 2025 215   North Dakota St. W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 01, 2026 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 03, 2026 336   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 76-63 87%    
  Jan 08, 2026 264   Long Beach St. W 74-60 89%    
  Jan 11, 2026 141   @ Hawaii W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 17, 2026 255   @ UC Davis W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 22, 2026 256   @ UC Riverside W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 24, 2026 119   @ UC San Diego W 69-68 50%    
  Jan 29, 2026 141   Hawaii W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 05, 2026 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-63 85%    
  Feb 07, 2026 126   @ UC Santa Barbara W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 12, 2026 253   @ Cal Poly W 84-76 73%    
  Feb 14, 2026 336   Cal St. Fullerton W 79-60 95%    
  Feb 19, 2026 264   @ Long Beach St. W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 21, 2026 119   UC San Diego W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 26, 2026 176   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 28, 2026 126   UC Santa Barbara W 72-66 70%    
  Mar 05, 2026 253   Cal Poly W 87-73 87%    
  Mar 07, 2026 255   UC Davis W 75-61 87%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.7 8.0 10.7 10.1 7.5 2.8 44.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.8 6.4 5.2 2.4 0.5 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.1 4.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.6 5.0 7.0 8.6 11.0 12.6 13.7 13.1 10.5 7.5 2.8 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.8    2.8
19-1 100.0% 7.5    7.4 0.1
18-2 95.4% 10.1    9.1 0.9
17-3 81.7% 10.7    8.0 2.5 0.1
16-4 58.6% 8.0    4.6 3.0 0.4 0.0
15-5 29.3% 3.7    1.4 1.7 0.6 0.0
14-6 10.5% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.0% 44.0 33.5 8.8 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.8% 76.6% 71.1% 5.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.7 19.0%
19-1 7.5% 68.4% 66.5% 1.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.4 5.6%
18-2 10.5% 58.9% 58.4% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 2.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 4.3 1.1%
17-3 13.1% 48.5% 48.5% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 1.4 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.7 0.0%
16-4 13.7% 39.7% 39.7% 12.4 0.5 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 8.2
15-5 12.6% 30.2% 30.2% 12.9 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.8
14-6 11.0% 21.0% 21.0% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.6
13-7 8.6% 14.0% 14.0% 13.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 7.4
12-8 7.0% 10.6% 10.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.3
11-9 5.0% 4.3% 4.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8
10-10 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4
9-11 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
8-12 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.8% 0.8
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.7% 33.3% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 8.2 12.5 6.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 66.3 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 5.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 14.7 20.8 20.8 12.5 8.3 4.1 6.3 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 36.8% 8.3 9.0 9.7 18.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 59.9% 9.5 9.9 50.0