Preseason Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#44
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace56.4#362
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.5% 7.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 16.8% 17.0% 1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.6% 50.0% 19.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.5% 47.9% 19.9%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 9.2
.500 or above 86.7% 87.1% 60.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 69.9% 46.1%
Conference Champion 4.8% 4.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.8% 3.9%
First Four6.7% 6.7% 6.7%
First Round46.2% 46.6% 16.0%
Second Round28.2% 28.4% 8.3%
Sweet Sixteen10.5% 10.6% 2.2%
Elite Eight4.0% 4.1% 0.0%
Final Four1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 26 - 310 - 11
Quad 35 - 114 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 309   Rider W 73-50 99%    
  Nov 07, 2025 329   NC Central W 77-52 99%    
  Nov 11, 2025 235   Hampton W 71-52 96%    
  Nov 15, 2025 185   Marshall W 74-57 93%    
  Nov 21, 2025 72   Northwestern W 64-60 65%    
  Nov 23, 2025 66   Butler W 67-64 60%    
  Nov 28, 2025 242   Queens W 77-57 95%    
  Dec 03, 2025 38   @ Texas L 63-67 36%    
  Dec 06, 2025 65   Dayton W 64-61 60%    
  Dec 09, 2025 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-47 99.5%   
  Dec 20, 2025 40   Maryland W 66-64 59%    
  Dec 22, 2025 303   American W 72-49 98%    
  Dec 31, 2025 76   @ Virginia Tech W 64-62 57%    
  Jan 03, 2026 31   @ North Carolina St. L 60-65 34%    
  Jan 07, 2026 91   California W 70-61 79%    
  Jan 10, 2026 99   Stanford W 68-58 80%    
  Jan 13, 2026 10   @ Louisville L 63-72 23%    
  Jan 17, 2026 46   @ SMU L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 24, 2026 23   North Carolina L 68-69 50%    
  Jan 27, 2026 63   @ Notre Dame L 62-63 50%    
  Jan 31, 2026 96   @ Boston College W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 03, 2026 80   Pittsburgh W 68-60 75%    
  Feb 07, 2026 64   Syracuse W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 10, 2026 75   @ Florida St. W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 14, 2026 27   Ohio St. L 65-68 42%    
  Feb 18, 2026 79   @ Georgia Tech W 66-64 57%    
  Feb 21, 2026 55   Miami (FL) W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 24, 2026 31   North Carolina St. W 63-62 54%    
  Feb 28, 2026 3   @ Duke L 57-70 14%    
  Mar 03, 2026 67   Wake Forest W 67-61 71%    
  Mar 07, 2026 76   Virginia Tech W 67-59 74%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.4 3.1 3.8 0.9 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 4.4 1.7 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.6 3.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 3.7 0.7 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.6 3.5 1.8 0.1 5.9 10th
11th 0.2 1.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.9 0.0 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.8 0.2 4.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.1 2.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.8 5.7 7.5 9.8 11.0 12.0 12.2 10.9 9.4 7.0 4.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 94.1% 0.7    0.6 0.1
16-2 67.8% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1
15-3 40.1% 1.7    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 11.3% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 3.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.3% 99.8% 16.9% 83.0% 4.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-4 7.0% 98.8% 11.7% 87.1% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-5 9.4% 93.2% 8.5% 84.8% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.6 92.6%
12-6 10.9% 85.1% 5.2% 79.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.5 1.6 84.3%
11-7 12.2% 66.8% 2.1% 64.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.1 66.1%
10-8 12.0% 44.7% 1.2% 43.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 1.0 0.0 6.7 44.0%
9-9 11.0% 26.8% 0.3% 26.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.0 8.1 26.5%
8-10 9.8% 10.3% 0.5% 9.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 8.8 9.8%
7-11 7.5% 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 1.7%
6-12 5.7% 5.7
5-13 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 3.8
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 49.6% 4.0% 45.6% 7.4 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.1 4.1 5.2 6.1 6.8 7.6 8.4 3.9 0.1 0.0 50.4 47.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0