Stanford
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
7  Sean McGorty JR 31:03
8  Jim Rosa SR 31:03
12  Grant Fisher FR 31:10
44  Joe Rosa SR 31:29
69  Garrett Sweatt JR 31:39
148  Cameron Miller JR 32:02
215  Jack Keelan SO 32:19
391  Sam Wharton SO 32:46
447  Steven Fahy FR 32:53
453  John Bordoni JR 32:53
640  Thomas Coyle SO 33:14
674  Patrick Perrier FR 33:18
1,017  Collin Leibold SR 33:49
National Rank #2 of 308
West Region Rank #1 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.7%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 24.3%
Top 5 at Nationals 92.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 99.2%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.7%


Regional Champion 75.1%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sean McGorty Jim Rosa Grant Fisher Joe Rosa Garrett Sweatt Cameron Miller Jack Keelan Sam Wharton Steven Fahy John Bordoni Thomas Coyle
Stanford Invitational 09/26 787 31:12 32:26 33:17 32:52
Washington Invitational 10/02 471 31:33 31:42 31:57 31:35 32:25 32:36
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 666 31:11 31:37 32:16 33:12 33:24 32:54
Pac 12 Championships 10/30 256 31:00 31:45 31:20 31:13 31:38 32:10 32:39 33:45 33:26
West Region Championships 11/13 371 31:27 31:27 31:27 31:47 32:10 32:45 33:25
NCAA Championship 11/21 185 30:44 30:43 30:58 31:48 31:33 33:39 33:06





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.7% 2.8 152 24.3 28.7 21.7 11.7 6.1 3.0 2.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.3 44 75.1 21.5 2.9 0.4 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sean McGorty 100.0% 11.5 0.1 1.2 4.9 6.5 7.0 6.6 5.4 5.1 4.9 3.7 3.5 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.0
Jim Rosa 100.0% 11.5 0.0 1.4 5.3 7.2 6.4 6.3 5.3 4.7 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.5
Grant Fisher 99.9% 18.1 0.3 1.4 3.4 3.8 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.2 3.8 3.7 3.3 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.6
Joe Rosa 99.8% 46.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0
Garrett Sweatt 99.7% 64.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.1 0.7
Cameron Miller 99.7% 119.3 0.0
Jack Keelan 99.7% 159.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sean McGorty 2.8 0.5 33.0 21.8 11.3 6.9 5.7 4.0 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2
Jim Rosa 2.8 0.5 32.4 22.0 12.1 7.3 4.4 3.4 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Grant Fisher 3.9 0.1 15.6 20.2 15.9 9.7 6.6 5.4 4.1 3.6 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2
Joe Rosa 9.3 0.3 2.1 7.1 9.2 8.3 7.9 7.1 6.3 5.4 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.3
Garrett Sweatt 13.5 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 5.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.0 3.9 4.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.4 2.0 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.8
Cameron Miller 28.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.2 3.6 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.1
Jack Keelan 42.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 75.1% 100.0% 75.1 75.1 1
2 21.5% 100.0% 21.5 21.5 2
3 2.9% 93.1% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.7 3
4 0.4% 88.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 4
5 0.2% 87.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 99.7% 75.1 21.5 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 96.6 3.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Oregon 99.6% 1.0 1.0
BYU 97.8% 1.0 1.0
Washington 77.6% 2.0 1.6
UCLA 64.4% 2.0 1.3
Air Force 40.3% 1.0 0.4
California 23.4% 1.0 0.2
Portland 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.7% 2.0 0.0
Total 5.5
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 10.0