Stanford
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
26  Aisling Cuffe SR 19:36
72  Vanessa Fraser JR 19:55
148  Claudia Saunders JR 20:11
182  Julia Maxwell SO 20:16
190  Sophie Chase JR 20:18
201  Molly McNamara SR 20:19
202  Hannah Long FR 20:20
230  Danielle Katz JR 20:24
445  Rebecca Mehra JR 20:50
721  Abbie McNulty SO 21:14
National Rank #13 of 339
West Region Rank #4 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.4%
Most Likely Finish 11th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 13.9%
Top 10 at Nationals 42.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 89.8%


Regional Champion 14.2%
Top 5 in Regional 99.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Aisling Cuffe Vanessa Fraser Claudia Saunders Julia Maxwell Sophie Chase Molly McNamara Hannah Long Danielle Katz Rebecca Mehra Abbie McNulty
Stanford Invitational 09/26 702 20:28 20:25 20:12 20:24 20:38
Washington Invitational 10/02 448 19:39 20:06 20:18 20:51 20:11 20:09 20:27
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 566 20:00 20:28 20:08 20:25 20:13 20:53 21:18
Pac 12 Championships 10/30 399 19:29 19:59 20:14 20:05 20:11 20:26 20:21 20:18 20:51 21:39
West Region Championships 11/13 550 20:26 20:22 20:07 20:06 20:25 20:20 20:14
NCAA Championship 11/21 483 20:11 19:43 20:01 20:16 20:29 20:58 20:26





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.4% 12.1 359 0.1 2.0 3.1 4.3 4.4 5.2 5.1 5.8 6.7 5.9 6.8 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.2 4.7 4.1 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.9 101 14.2 23.9 27.1 31.6 2.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aisling Cuffe 99.7% 29.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.2
Vanessa Fraser 99.4% 76.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Claudia Saunders 99.4% 122.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Julia Maxwell 99.4% 136.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sophie Chase 99.4% 142.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Molly McNamara 99.4% 146.1 0.0 0.0
Hannah Long 99.4% 148.7 0.0 0.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aisling Cuffe 4.2 1.1 17.4 16.2 13.2 10.3 8.6 6.5 5.4 4.6 3.4 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Vanessa Fraser 13.3 0.0 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.0 4.7 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.4 4.5 5.0 4.1 4.9 3.8 4.5 3.6 3.8 2.9 3.2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.8
Claudia Saunders 25.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 3.6 3.2 2.7 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.2 2.8
Julia Maxwell 30.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8
Sophie Chase 32.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.9
Molly McNamara 33.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.8 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.6
Hannah Long 34.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.8 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 14.2% 100.0% 14.2 14.2 1
2 23.9% 100.0% 23.9 23.9 2
3 27.1% 99.9% 6.0 6.3 5.3 3.5 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 27.1 3
4 31.6% 99.9% 7.8 8.4 7.1 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 31.6 4
5 2.6% 100.0% 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6 5
6 0.4% 10.5% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 6
7 0.2% 0.2 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 0.0% 0.0 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 99.4% 14.2 23.9 6.0 14.1 14.4 11.1 6.4 3.6 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.6 38.1 61.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Washington 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Miss State 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Georgetown 83.8% 1.0 0.8
BYU 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Utah 63.8% 2.0 1.3
Purdue 53.2% 1.0 0.5
Texas 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Weber State 40.5% 1.0 0.4
Villanova 30.4% 1.0 0.3
Kansas 26.0% 1.0 0.3
Yale 19.5% 1.0 0.2
Air Force 10.1% 2.0 0.2
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 8.8% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
California 5.3% 2.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Florida 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Gonzaga 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.7% 2.0 0.0
Bradley 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 1.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 7.8
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 16.0