Michigan
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
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RankNameGradeRating
22  Mason Ferlic SR 31:16
85  Ben Flanagan JR 31:45
121  Tony Smoragiewicz SR 31:56
142  Connor Mora JR 32:00
159  Nick Renberg JR 32:06
214  Aaron Baumgarten SO 32:19
244  Micah Beller SO 32:24
295  August Pappas SR 32:32
332  Nicholas Posada SR 32:37
National Rank #11 of 308
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 31
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.7%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Nationals


National Champion 0.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 10.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 47.6%
Top 20 at Nationals 91.2%


Regional Champion 79.5%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Mason Ferlic Ben Flanagan Tony Smoragiewicz Connor Mora Nick Renberg Aaron Baumgarten Micah Beller August Pappas Nicholas Posada
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/03 559 31:26 32:02 32:16 32:00 32:26 32:35 32:31 32:29 32:12
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 476 31:28 31:43 32:06 31:56 32:02 32:03 32:45
Big Ten Championships 11/01 451 31:10 31:40 31:42 32:01 32:16 32:17 32:17 33:12 32:32
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/13 473 31:08 31:45 32:03 32:00 32:07 32:23 33:09
NCAA Championship 11/21 412 31:34 31:41 31:36 32:05 31:45 32:50 32:53





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.7% 11.8 363 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.5 5.3 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.6 7.1 6.7 5.8 5.9 4.8 4.3 4.4 3.4 3.1 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.3 63 79.5 14.9 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mason Ferlic 100.0% 24.8 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.9
Ben Flanagan 99.7% 79.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4
Tony Smoragiewicz 99.7% 104.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Connor Mora 99.7% 111.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nick Renberg 99.7% 128.0
Aaron Baumgarten 99.7% 159.0
Micah Beller 99.7% 169.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mason Ferlic 1.8 30.6 23.4 12.0 8.2 5.4 3.8 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Ben Flanagan 8.8 0.4 2.7 5.4 7.6 7.7 8.2 7.0 6.6 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.5 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Tony Smoragiewicz 12.9 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.5 3.9 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.6 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.5
Connor Mora 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.1 3.6 4.4 5.7 5.3 6.3 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.4 1.7
Nick Renberg 17.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.9 4.6 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.5 4.8 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.1
Aaron Baumgarten 26.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1
Micah Beller 29.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 79.5% 100.0% 79.5 79.5 1
2 14.9% 100.0% 14.9 14.9 2
3 4.0% 100.0% 3.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 3
4 1.2% 100.0% 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 4
5 0.3% 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
Total 100% 99.7% 79.5 14.9 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 94.4 5.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Iona 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Virginia 97.6% 1.0 1.0
Mississippi 91.7% 2.0 1.8
Florida State 91.5% 1.0 0.9
Michigan State 90.9% 2.0 1.8
Louisville 88.3% 1.0 0.9
Furman 88.3% 1.0 0.9
North Carolina St. 87.9% 1.0 0.9
Washington 77.6% 1.0 0.8
Columbia 70.8% 1.0 0.7
Eastern Kentucky 65.9% 2.0 1.3
Tulsa 64.7% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 64.4% 1.0 0.6
Indiana 61.1% 2.0 1.2
Oklahoma 60.8% 1.0 0.6
Boise State 57.0% 1.0 0.6
Illinois 47.5% 3.0 1.4
Minnesota 25.4% 1.0 0.3
Princeton 19.2% 1.0 0.2
Providence 14.1% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 9.0% 1.0 0.1
Notre Dame 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 7.0% 3.0 0.2
Penn State 3.3% 3.0 0.1
Portland 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Iowa State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 18.2
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 30.0