Providence
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
42  Sarah Collins SR 19:45
75  Brianna Ilarda JR 19:56
80  Millie Paladino JR 19:57
104  Katie Lembo JR 20:03
112  Abbey Wheeler FR 20:05
303  Lauren Mullins SR 20:34
373  Mackenzie Barry JR 20:42
591  Keelin Hollowood SR 21:04
759  Samantha Jones SR 21:16
1,035  Alex DeCicco FR 21:34
National Rank #7 of 344
Northeast Region Rank #1 of 43
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Nationals


National Champion 1.4%
Top 5 at Nationals 27.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 58.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 91.9%


Regional Champion 82.8%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sarah Collins Brianna Ilarda Millie Paladino Katie Lembo Abbey Wheeler Lauren Mullins Mackenzie Barry Keelin Hollowood Samantha Jones Alex DeCicco
Coast-to-Coast Battle in Beantown 09/16 376 19:55 20:00 20:01 20:03 20:02 20:35 20:53 21:15
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 332 19:43 19:56 19:56 20:02 19:59 20:37 20:44 21:07
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 20:58 21:16
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 341 19:42 19:58 19:59 19:52 20:07 20:31 20:43
Big East Conference Championships 10/28 423 19:53 19:44 19:55 20:06 20:33 20:36 21:01 21:17 21:52
Northeast Region Championships 11/11 374 19:39 19:47 19:56 20:15 20:11 20:48 20:58





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 10.1 325 1.4 4.6 6.7 7.6 7.2 7.5 7.1 5.9 6.5 4.4 5.6 4.2 4.4 4.2 3.2 3.3 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.3
Region Championship 100% 1.2 44 82.8 13.6 3.4 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Collins 100% 49.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.0
Brianna Ilarda 100% 80.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5
Millie Paladino 100% 83.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3
Katie Lembo 100% 100.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2
Abbey Wheeler 100% 104.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
Lauren Mullins 100% 189.6
Mackenzie Barry 100% 207.9


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sarah Collins 3.4 8.6 16.6 18.6 16.8 12.1 8.3 6.0 3.3 3.2 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Brianna Ilarda 6.3 0.9 3.9 8.0 10.1 11.3 12.8 10.8 7.7 6.9 4.5 4.8 3.2 2.5 2.6 1.8 2.0 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4
Millie Paladino 6.9 0.9 4.5 5.8 9.3 9.3 11.5 10.3 8.8 6.9 4.7 3.9 3.7 3.8 3.3 2.4 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3
Katie Lembo 8.9 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.9 7.1 8.1 8.5 8.7 8.1 6.6 6.0 4.9 4.5 4.4 3.5 3.3 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Abbey Wheeler 9.7 0.3 0.8 2.2 3.5 6.0 7.0 8.4 9.4 7.8 6.5 6.7 5.7 4.6 2.9 3.7 3.3 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.3
Lauren Mullins 30.3 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.9
Mackenzie Barry 38.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.7 1.3 2.4 2.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 82.8% 100.0% 82.8 82.8 1
2 13.6% 100.0% 13.6 13.6 2
3 3.4% 100.0% 3.2 0.2 3.4 3
4 0.3% 100.0% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
Total 100% 100.0% 82.8 13.6 3.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.3 3.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
North Carolina St. 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Baylor 99.2% 2.0 2.0
Iowa State 99.0% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.6% 2.0 2.0
Michigan State 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Mississippi 95.3% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 92.0% 2.0 1.8
Yale 92.0% 1.0 0.9
Eastern Michigan 89.5% 1.0 0.9
San Francisco 89.3% 1.0 0.9
BYU 86.9% 1.0 0.9
Utah 84.5% 2.0 1.7
Harvard 74.3% 1.0 0.7
Penn 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Villanova 62.9% 2.0 1.3
Boise State 60.0% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
Minnesota 31.9% 2.0 0.6
California 28.9% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 22.0% 2.0 0.4
SMU 16.3% 1.0 0.2
Wisconsin 14.5% 1.0 0.1
Air Force 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Alabama 7.3% 1.0 0.1
Vanderbilt 6.1% 2.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.4% 1.0 0.0
Syracuse 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 20.9
Minimum 14.0
Maximum 28.0