California
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
7  Bethan Knights JR 19:20
94  Marissa Williams SO 20:01
207  Xochitl Navarrete SR 20:19
281  Georgia Bell SR 20:32
462  Megan Bordes SR 20:52
471  Skyler Flora FR 20:53
573  Nuria Tio Peig JR 21:03
872  Marissa Dobry FR 21:24
938  Natalie Herberg SO 21:28
2,989  Jacqueline Chandler FR 24:12
National Rank #25 of 344
West Region Rank #8 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 55.6%
Most Likely Finish 19th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 3.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 29.0%


Regional Champion 0.1%
Top 5 in Regional 12.2%
Top 10 in Regional 99.4%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Bethan Knights Marissa Williams Xochitl Navarrete Georgia Bell Megan Bordes Skyler Flora Nuria Tio Peig Marissa Dobry Natalie Herberg Jacqueline Chandler
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 560 19:24 19:51 20:55 20:24 20:44 20:34 21:09
CXC West Region Preview 10/01 1218 21:04 21:22 24:37
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 533 19:28 19:57 20:11 20:34 20:40 20:57 21:31
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/15 20:55 21:51 23:53
Pac-12 Conference 10/28 652 19:17 20:10 20:15 21:20 20:53 21:13 21:05 21:19
West Region Championships 11/11 719 19:27 20:25 20:11 21:16 21:07 22:24 21:29





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 55.6% 19.9 489 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.4 3.7 4.2 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.6
Region Championship 100% 7.1 206 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 7.9 18.2 26.5 27.4 11.6 3.6 0.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bethan Knights 99.8% 10.3 3.6 4.5 6.4 6.0 5.4 4.9 5.6 5.2 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.2 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.3
Marissa Williams 57.8% 84.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Xochitl Navarrete 55.7% 141.5 0.1
Georgia Bell 55.6% 176.6
Megan Bordes 55.6% 216.5
Skyler Flora 55.6% 217.8
Nuria Tio Peig 55.6% 230.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bethan Knights 3.5 16.8 15.4 12.0 11.5 8.7 7.9 6.3 5.2 3.5 3.1 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2
Marissa Williams 26.7 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.6 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.2 3.3 2.9 3.1 3.8 3.6 3.4
Xochitl Navarrete 44.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.4
Georgia Bell 56.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Megan Bordes 76.6
Skyler Flora 76.8
Nuria Tio Peig 88.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 1
2 0.3% 100.0% 0.3 0.3 2
3 1.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2 3
4 2.9% 98.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.0 2.8 4
5 7.9% 93.6% 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.5 7.4 5
6 18.2% 81.9% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.3 4.3 1.2 3.3 14.9 6
7 26.5% 64.8% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 2.5 4.2 4.7 4.0 9.3 17.2 7
8 27.4% 36.3% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.8 2.6 4.5 17.5 10.0 8
9 11.6% 16.8% 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.3 9.7 2.0 9
10 3.6% 3.6 10
11 0.5% 0.5 11
12 0.1% 0.1 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 55.6% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.2 3.1 4.5 7.3 11.1 13.7 11.1 44.4 0.4 55.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Miss State 82.8% 1.0 0.8
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
Minnesota 31.9% 1.0 0.3
Florida 27.8% 1.0 0.3
Furman 25.1% 1.0 0.3
Virginia 24.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 24.4% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 12.1% 1.0 0.1
Louisville 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Air Force 8.9% 2.0 0.2
Alabama 7.3% 1.0 0.1
Vanderbilt 6.1% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Kansas 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Ohio State 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Texas 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Total 3.5
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 9.0