Portland
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
10  Lauren LaRocco JR 19:25
64  Parkes Kendrick JR 19:52
86  Anne Luijten SR 19:58
130  Anna Farello SR 20:08
156  Taryn Rawlings SO 20:11
354  Mathilde Sagnes JR 20:40
537  Grace McConnochie SR 21:00
614  Courtney Cox SO 21:06
1,497  Lindsay Tompkins SR 22:03
National Rank #6 of 344
West Region Rank #4 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 96.5%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Nationals


National Champion 1.6%
Top 5 at Nationals 28.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 62.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 92.1%


Regional Champion 8.7%
Top 5 in Regional 82.2%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Lauren LaRocco Parkes Kendrick Anne Luijten Anna Farello Taryn Rawlings Mathilde Sagnes Grace McConnochie Courtney Cox Lindsay Tompkins
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 223 19:08 19:33 19:33 20:05 19:58 20:40 20:51 22:11
Charles Bowles Willamette Invitational 10/01 1202 20:52 21:51
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 357 19:29 19:51 19:58 20:05 20:15 20:36 21:02
West Coast Conference 10/28 393 19:26 19:58 20:05 20:08 20:16 20:35 20:51 21:12 22:14
West Region Championships 11/11 372 19:25 20:04 20:20 20:00 19:55 20:43 21:10





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 96.5% 9.2 310 1.6 5.4 7.1 7.5 6.7 7.6 7.5 6.4 7.2 5.3 5.6 5.2 3.9 2.9 3.4 2.5 1.7 2.2 2.1 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 3.9 125 8.7 13.7 18.7 23.3 18.0 11.0 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren LaRocco 100.0% 15.4 1.7 2.3 4.1 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.1 3.4 4.4 3.3 3.1 2.2 3.0 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.1
Parkes Kendrick 96.5% 63.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.6
Anne Luijten 96.5% 82.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
Anna Farello 96.5% 109.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Taryn Rawlings 96.5% 123.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Mathilde Sagnes 96.5% 201.4
Grace McConnochie 96.5% 230.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lauren LaRocco 4.9 9.4 10.5 11.5 10.5 8.8 9.2 6.5 6.3 4.6 4.4 3.6 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3
Parkes Kendrick 19.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.8 2.7 3.6 3.1 3.7 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.4 3.8 4.8 3.8 3.3 4.7 2.4 3.6 3.0 3.9
Anne Luijten 23.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 3.5 3.9 3.0 4.0 2.9 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.2 2.9
Anna Farello 33.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.2 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.5 3.0
Taryn Rawlings 35.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.2 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.5
Mathilde Sagnes 64.1 0.1 0.1
Grace McConnochie 84.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 8.7% 100.0% 8.7 8.7 1
2 13.7% 100.0% 13.7 13.7 2
3 18.7% 100.0% 13.1 3.1 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 18.7 3
4 23.3% 100.0% 8.5 4.4 2.4 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 23.3 4
5 18.0% 99.4% 2.0 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 17.9 5
6 11.0% 95.4% 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.5 10.5 6
7 4.6% 72.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 3.3 7
8 2.0% 30.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4 0.6 8
9 0.3% 0.3 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 96.5% 8.7 13.7 13.1 11.5 7.8 5.8 5.8 4.0 4.5 3.5 4.8 3.9 3.5 3.4 2.9 3.6 22.3 74.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Penn State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 98.8% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 97.4% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Michigan 89.5% 1.0 0.9
San Francisco 89.3% 2.0 1.8
BYU 86.9% 1.0 0.9
Miss State 82.8% 2.0 1.7
Boise State 60.0% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
Minnesota 31.9% 1.0 0.3
California 28.9% 1.0 0.3
Florida 27.8% 1.0 0.3
Furman 25.1% 2.0 0.5
Virginia 24.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 24.4% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 12.1% 1.0 0.1
Louisville 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Air Force 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Kansas 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Ohio State 3.8% 2.0 0.1
Duke 3.2% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 2.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 2.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 13.8
Minimum 6.0
Maximum 20.0