Portland
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
37  Nick Hauger SO 31:30
54  Tim Ball SR 31:35
58  Jeff Thies JR 31:36
71  Stephen Mulherin SR 31:43
145  Danny Martinez SR 32:01
174  Timo Goehler SR 32:08
175  Caleb Webb FR 32:08
218  Alex Dillard SR 32:17
223  Brady Johnson SR 32:17
271  Tristan Peloquin FR 32:25
397  Logan Orndorf SO 32:43
1,120  Noah Schutte SO 33:55
1,197  Joe Horen FR 34:00
National Rank #8 of 312
West Region Rank #3 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.3%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Nationals


National Champion 1.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 18.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 62.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 96.9%


Regional Champion 12.0%
Top 5 in Regional 94.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Nick Hauger Tim Ball Jeff Thies Stephen Mulherin Danny Martinez Timo Goehler Caleb Webb Alex Dillard Brady Johnson Tristan Peloquin Logan Orndorf
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 261 31:22 31:24 31:11 31:32 31:56 31:44 31:41 31:58 33:57 32:38
Charles Bowles Willamette Invitational 10/01 1006 32:29 32:29
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 400 31:38 31:24 31:42 31:45 32:40 32:05
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 950 32:24 32:56 32:15 32:49
West Coast Conference 10/28 435 31:23 31:58 31:43 31:49 32:00 32:27 32:39 32:10 32:44
West Region Championships 11/11 355 31:24 31:42 31:34 31:45 31:52 31:46 31:49





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.3% 9.6 302 1.2 2.4 3.0 5.1 6.6 8.3 10.6 9.1 9.3 7.2 7.3 5.9 4.5 4.3 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 3.1 96 12.0 25.2 26.1 19.6 11.8 4.6 0.6 0.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nick Hauger 99.7% 45.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.5
Tim Ball 99.5% 56.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1
Jeff Thies 99.5% 57.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.0
Stephen Mulherin 99.4% 74.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5
Danny Martinez 99.3% 120.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
Timo Goehler 99.3% 138.2
Caleb Webb 99.3% 141.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Nick Hauger 11.0 0.1 1.2 2.7 4.6 6.7 6.8 6.4 5.9 6.3 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.2 2.6 2.8 2.6 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.8
Tim Ball 14.2 0.2 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.0 5.1 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.8 4.7 3.5 3.6 2.4 3.3 2.5 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.4 2.1
Jeff Thies 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 2.4 2.7 4.2 4.4 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.7 4.1 4.8 3.4 3.9 3.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.6
Stephen Mulherin 18.7 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.7 3.6 2.4 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.7 2.8 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.5
Danny Martinez 30.9 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.4 3.0 2.7 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.0
Timo Goehler 36.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.3 2.1 2.6
Caleb Webb 37.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.2 1.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 12.0% 100.0% 12.0 12.0 1
2 25.2% 100.0% 25.2 25.2 2
3 26.1% 100.0% 11.6 12.4 1.6 0.6 26.1 3
4 19.6% 100.0% 5.8 6.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 19.6 4
5 11.8% 97.9% 1.9 3.1 1.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 11.5 5
6 4.6% 97.8% 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 4.5 6
7 0.6% 83.3% 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 7
8 0.2% 0.2 8
9 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 99.3% 12.0 25.2 11.6 18.2 9.4 5.9 4.0 2.7 2.3 1.9 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.7 37.2 62.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Georgetown 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 99.1% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 95.0% 2.0 1.9
Michigan State 92.4% 2.0 1.8
Boise State 89.6% 2.0 1.8
Colorado St. 85.2% 2.0 1.7
Eastern Kentucky 82.3% 1.0 0.8
North Carolina St. 81.2% 1.0 0.8
Washington St. 79.9% 1.0 0.8
Providence 78.3% 1.0 0.8
Southern Utah 71.5% 2.0 1.4
Tulsa 68.5% 1.0 0.7
Michigan 66.4% 1.0 0.7
Princeton 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M 43.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Michigan 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Navy 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Penn 36.5% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 2.0 0.6
Washington 16.7% 1.0 0.2
Florida State 14.8% 1.0 0.1
Minnesota 8.2% 2.0 0.2
Furman 4.4% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 1.7% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 19.4
Minimum 13.0
Maximum 25.0