Michigan
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
1  Erin Finn SR 18:59
69  Gina Sereno JR 19:54
106  Avery Evenson JR 20:03
170  Jamie Morrissey JR 20:14
182  Madeline Trevisan FR 20:16
208  Jaimie Phelan JR 20:20
242  Claire Borchers SO 20:25
403  Hannah Meier JR 20:46
416  Sarah Zieve JR 20:47
442  Sydney Badger SO 20:50
597  Rachel Barrett SO 21:05
825  Rachel Coleman SO 21:20
National Rank #8 of 344
Great Lakes Region Rank #1 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.1%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Nationals


National Champion 0.6%
Top 5 at Nationals 23.2%
Top 10 at Nationals 56.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 93.7%


Regional Champion 44.5%
Top 5 in Regional 99.4%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Erin Finn Gina Sereno Avery Evenson Jamie Morrissey Madeline Trevisan Jaimie Phelan Claire Borchers Hannah Meier Sarah Zieve Sydney Badger Rachel Barrett
Sycamore Invitational 09/10 431 19:07 19:58 20:11 20:25 20:22 20:17 20:30 20:49 20:50
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 376 18:43 19:56 20:31 20:09 20:11 20:31 20:13 20:55 20:49
Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/01 444 19:19 19:54 20:17 20:15 20:27 20:22 20:26 20:57 20:48 20:47 21:04
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Open) 10/15 996 20:42 20:29 20:52 21:12
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 318 18:53 20:04 19:45 20:06 20:08 20:25 20:24
Big 10 Championship 10/30 285 19:04 19:32 19:51 20:13 20:36 20:03 20:37 20:38 20:56
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/11 276 19:00 19:46 19:50 20:03 20:04 20:17 20:28





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.1% 10.2 327 0.6 3.7 5.7 5.9 7.4 8.0 7.3 7.0 5.5 6.1 5.3 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.0 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.0 76 44.5 29.0 14.8 8.3 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Finn 100% 1.6 38.4 19.0 10.1 7.3 5.7 4.6 2.7 3.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1
Gina Sereno 99.1% 70.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5
Avery Evenson 99.1% 100.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Jamie Morrissey 99.1% 138.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Madeline Trevisan 99.1% 143.4 0.1 0.1
Jaimie Phelan 99.1% 151.8 0.1
Claire Borchers 99.1% 164.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Finn 1.0 64.0 30.4 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Gina Sereno 10.2 0.5 3.1 4.6 6.9 6.2 7.3 7.3 6.2 6.7 5.7 4.6 4.9 5.2 4.2 3.7 3.6 2.2 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.0
Avery Evenson 15.9 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.6 2.5 3.0 3.9 3.8 4.5 4.9 5.7 3.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.5 4.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.7 2.8 2.2
Jamie Morrissey 24.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.8 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 4.3 3.3 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.6
Madeline Trevisan 25.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.7 2.4 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 4.1 4.1 3.7 4.2 4.3
Jaimie Phelan 28.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 2.2 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.8 3.5 3.8 2.6
Claire Borchers 32.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.6 1.9 2.2 3.2 2.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 44.5% 100.0% 44.5 44.5 1
2 29.0% 100.0% 29.0 29.0 2
3 14.8% 100.0% 2.3 3.0 3.1 1.6 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 14.8 3
4 8.3% 99.4% 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.3 4
5 3.0% 89.8% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.7 5
6 0.5% 11.1% 0.1 0.4 0.1 6
7 0.1% 0.1 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 99.1% 44.5 29.0 2.3 3.5 4.6 2.4 3.3 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.9 73.4 25.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 97.4% 1.0 1.0
Portland 93.6% 1.0 0.9
Eastern Michigan 89.5% 1.0 0.9
San Francisco 89.3% 1.0 0.9
Miss State 82.8% 2.0 1.7
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
Minnesota 31.9% 1.0 0.3
California 28.9% 1.0 0.3
Florida 27.8% 1.0 0.3
Furman 25.1% 2.0 0.5
Virginia 24.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 24.4% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 12.1% 2.0 0.2
Louisville 9.3% 2.0 0.2
Air Force 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Virginia Tech 7.6% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Kansas 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Ohio State 3.8% 2.0 0.1
Duke 3.2% 2.0 0.1
Colorado St. 2.1% 2.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 2.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 2.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 9.7
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 17.0