Colorado
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
5  Erin Clark SR 19:16
9  Kaitlyn Benner JR 19:25
17  Dani Jones SO 19:32
20  Makena Morley SO 19:33
28  Mackenzie Caldwell SO 19:40
56  Sage Hurta FR 19:49
77  Tabor Scholl FR 19:56
116  Melanie Nun JR 20:05
129  Tayler Tuttle SO 20:08
223  Cayla Seligman FR 20:22
325  Carrie Verdon SR 20:37
331  Eryn Blakely JR 20:37
408  Annie Kelly JR 20:46
411  Lucy May JR 20:46
897  Karina Mann FR 21:25
914  Brianna Schwartz FR 21:27
2,390  Abigail Regner FR 23:00
National Rank #1 of 344
Mountain Region Rank #1 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 78.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 98.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 100.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 99.2%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Erin Clark Kaitlyn Benner Dani Jones Makena Morley Mackenzie Caldwell Sage Hurta Tabor Scholl Melanie Nun Tayler Tuttle Cayla Seligman Carrie Verdon
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/01 151 18:55 19:02 19:16 19:11 20:19
Bradley "Pink" Classic 10/14 761 20:05 20:22
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 201 19:16 19:35 19:37 19:49 19:57 20:03 20:20
Pac-12 Conference 10/28 82 19:06 19:11 19:07 19:25 19:44 19:41 20:02 19:45 20:16 20:42
Mountain Region Championships 11/11 181 19:36 19:36 19:43 19:36 19:37 19:42 20:05





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 1.4 95 78.1 13.6 4.0 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.0 27 99.2 0.8



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Clark 100% 7.6 4.8 8.3 7.5 7.9 6.3 6.8 5.7 5.0 4.7 3.6 4.4 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.3 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2
Kaitlyn Benner 100% 14.5 1.3 2.8 3.0 3.0 4.9 3.8 4.1 3.9 4.3 4.3 3.0 3.6 3.9 3.3 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.0 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.1
Dani Jones 100% 24.0 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.5
Makena Morley 100% 24.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.9 3.3 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.4 3.1 1.8 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.2
Mackenzie Caldwell 100% 39.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.5
Sage Hurta 100% 58.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.0
Tabor Scholl 100% 78.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Clark 1.7 29.7 29.7 16.9 9.5 6.5 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Kaitlyn Benner 3.1 10.8 16.7 20.4 16.5 10.7 7.7 5.6 3.5 2.4 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dani Jones 5.1 2.9 7.7 10.1 14.9 13.9 12.9 9.4 6.5 5.4 3.8 3.3 2.9 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Makena Morley 5.3 3.1 6.0 10.7 13.1 12.9 13.1 10.4 7.6 6.3 4.7 3.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Mackenzie Caldwell 7.4 0.8 1.3 4.8 7.5 8.8 11.3 11.5 9.4 9.3 6.9 5.6 5.0 3.9 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2
Sage Hurta 10.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.2 3.0 4.6 6.9 9.6 8.7 7.1 7.7 7.3 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.0 2.6 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.2
Tabor Scholl 14.2 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.3 5.6 6.9 5.7 6.2 5.7 6.1 5.5 5.4 4.4 4.1 3.5 4.0 3.4 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 99.2% 100.0% 99.2 99.2 1
2 0.8% 100.0% 0.8 0.8 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 100.0% 99.2 0.8 0.0 100.0 0.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Washington 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 98.8% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 97.4% 2.0 1.9
Oregon 96.6% 2.0 1.9
Portland 93.6% 1.0 0.9
Eastern Michigan 89.5% 1.0 0.9
Utah 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Miss State 82.8% 1.0 0.8
UCLA 54.6% 1.0 0.5
California 28.9% 2.0 0.6
Florida 27.8% 1.0 0.3
Furman 25.1% 1.0 0.3
Virginia 24.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 24.4% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 12.1% 1.0 0.1
Louisville 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Air Force 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Kansas 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Ohio State 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 13.0
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 18.0