Washington
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
6  Amy-Eloise Neale JR 19:18
13  Charlotte Prouse SO 19:26
70  Katie Knight JR 19:54
79  Kaitlyn Neal FR 19:57
143  Anna Maxwell JR 20:09
154  Isobel Batt-Doyle JR 20:11
185  Nicole Zielinski FR 20:17
244  Kaylee Flanagan SR 20:25
317  Emily Hamlin SO 20:35
915  Grace Hodge SR 21:27
984  Josephine Bosserman JR 21:31
1,001  Katherine Penner ? 21:32
National Rank #3 of 344
West Region Rank #2 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.9%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 6.9%
Top 5 at Nationals 67.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 91.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.5%


Regional Champion 35.9%
Top 5 in Regional 97.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Amy-Eloise Neale Charlotte Prouse Katie Knight Kaitlyn Neal Anna Maxwell Isobel Batt-Doyle Nicole Zielinski Kaylee Flanagan Emily Hamlin Grace Hodge Josephine Bosserman
Sundodger Invitational 09/17 375 19:49 19:43 19:43 20:15 20:24 20:17 20:33 21:23 21:23
UW Invitational 10/01 264 19:34 19:24 19:51 19:57 20:06 20:27 20:06 20:20 20:24 21:23 21:05
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational (B Race) 10/14 971 20:07 20:28 21:36 22:15
Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational 10/14 251 19:16 19:19 20:07 19:56 20:06 20:05 19:58
Pac-12 Conference 10/28 225 19:06 19:15 19:49 19:55 20:10 20:05 20:39 21:01 20:39
West Region Championships 11/11 253 19:11 19:34 19:54 19:58 20:02 20:28 20:52





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.9% 5.0 220 6.9 20.3 17.0 13.8 9.8 6.7 5.0 4.8 3.5 3.8 2.1 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.3 88 35.9 26.3 19.0 11.4 5.2 1.7 0.6 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Amy-Eloise Neale 100% 9.3 3.9 6.4 6.7 7.1 6.1 5.9 4.3 5.4 3.4 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.2 1.4 1.3
Charlotte Prouse 100% 16.9 0.8 1.5 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 4.8 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.9 3.7 2.5 2.2 3.0 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.7
Katie Knight 99.9% 72.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6
Kaitlyn Neal 99.9% 81.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5
Anna Maxwell 99.9% 121.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Isobel Batt-Doyle 99.9% 124.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Nicole Zielinski 99.9% 143.4 0.1 0.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Amy-Eloise Neale 2.8 18.6 18.4 15.5 9.9 9.2 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.5 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1
Charlotte Prouse 5.5 5.7 8.3 11.1 10.1 9.7 10.1 7.2 7.5 5.5 4.1 3.5 4.0 2.3 1.4 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2
Katie Knight 21.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.5 4.3 4.2 4.3 3.1 3.3 3.2
Kaitlyn Neal 22.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.8 3.7 2.9 2.5 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.1 4.2 3.4 4.6 2.6 3.2
Anna Maxwell 34.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.5
Isobel Batt-Doyle 35.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.7
Nicole Zielinski 41.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 35.9% 100.0% 35.9 35.9 1
2 26.3% 100.0% 26.3 26.3 2
3 19.0% 100.0% 18.3 0.7 19.0 3
4 11.4% 100.0% 4.7 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 11.4 4
5 5.2% 99.0% 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 5.1 5
6 1.7% 100.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.7 6
7 0.6% 90.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 7
8 0.1% 50.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 99.9% 35.9 26.3 18.3 5.3 2.8 2.9 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 62.2 37.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
North Carolina St. 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Providence 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Baylor 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 99.0% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.6% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 97.4% 1.0 1.0
Oregon 96.6% 2.0 1.9
Michigan State 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 92.0% 1.0 0.9
Yale 92.0% 1.0 0.9
San Francisco 89.3% 1.0 0.9
BYU 86.9% 1.0 0.9
Utah 84.5% 2.0 1.7
Harvard 74.3% 2.0 1.5
Penn 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Villanova 62.9% 1.0 0.6
Boise State 60.0% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 54.6% 2.0 1.1
Minnesota 31.9% 1.0 0.3
California 28.9% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 22.0% 1.0 0.2
SMU 16.3% 1.0 0.2
Wisconsin 14.5% 1.0 0.1
Vanderbilt 6.1% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.4% 1.0 0.0
Syracuse 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 19.9
Minimum 12.0
Maximum 25.0