California
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
17  Bethan Knights SR 19:23
26  Brie Oakley FR 19:31
157  Marissa Williams JR 20:09
338  Jordyn Colter JR 20:35
419  Annie Boos FR 20:43
560  Marissa Dobry SO 20:56
601  Chloe Hansel FR 20:59
1,063  Ariane Arndt FR 21:32
1,109  Skyler Flora SO 21:35
1,134  Nuria Tio Peig SR 21:37
2,079  Lochryn Howe FR 22:38
3,215  Julia Lipson SR 25:57
National Rank #20 of 348
West Region Rank #6 of 40
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 76.7%
Most Likely Finish 19th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 6.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 49.8%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 31.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Bethan Knights Brie Oakley Marissa Williams Jordyn Colter Annie Boos Marissa Dobry Chloe Hansel Ariane Arndt Skyler Flora Nuria Tio Peig Lochryn Howe
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/29 611 19:08 19:34 20:32 21:00 20:57 20:53 21:40
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 598 19:08 19:31 20:35 20:42 21:04 21:14 22:37
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/14 1333 21:13 21:31 22:18 22:24
Pac-12 Championship 10/27 434 19:31 19:33 19:49 20:30 20:43 20:38 20:51 21:25 21:34 22:54
West Region Championships 11/10 490 19:23 19:25 20:14 20:46 20:31 20:57 21:03





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 76.7% 18.2 474 0.2 1.0 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.5 3.4 4.0 4.0 4.2 5.3 5.2 4.6 5.8 4.6 5.2 3.4 4.2 3.5 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2
Region Championship 100% 5.8 187 0.7 4.9 25.5 53.9 12.1 2.4 0.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bethan Knights 99.6% 21.7 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.8 3.3 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.5 1.9 2.4 2.2
Brie Oakley 97.9% 34.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.7 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.7
Marissa Williams 76.7% 130.1 0.1 0.1
Jordyn Colter 76.7% 195.7
Annie Boos 76.7% 210.3
Marissa Dobry 76.7% 228.1
Chloe Hansel 76.7% 230.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bethan Knights 7.6 2.0 3.7 6.2 6.9 8.4 9.6 9.1 6.6 6.5 7.0 5.8 5.5 4.4 4.3 2.7 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5
Brie Oakley 11.3 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.8 3.5 5.5 4.9 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.7 7.2 5.8 4.9 4.2 4.6 5.3 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.6
Marissa Williams 37.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.5 2.2 2.0
Jordyn Colter 60.2 0.1 0.1
Annie Boos 67.8 0.1 0.1
Marissa Dobry 80.9
Chloe Hansel 83.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.7% 100.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 3
4 4.9% 98.0% 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 4.8 4
5 25.5% 95.5% 1.1 3.3 4.4 3.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.2 1.1 0.2 1.2 24.3 5
6 53.9% 72.3% 1.1 2.4 3.7 4.4 5.2 5.4 4.2 4.5 3.1 5.2 15.0 39.0 6
7 12.1% 65.7% 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.7 4.2 8.0 7
8 2.4% 2.4 8
9 0.5% 0.5 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
Total 100% 76.7% 0.1 0.6 1.8 5.3 7.1 8.1 8.1 9.8 9.6 7.6 7.6 5.1 6.1 23.4 0.0 76.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
Utah 43.1% 1.0 0.4
Indiana 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Ohio State 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Air Force 32.3% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 29.6% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 26.5% 1.0 0.3
Baylor 17.5% 2.0 0.3
Yale 14.2% 1.0 0.1
Virginia 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 4.9% 2.0 0.1
Alabama 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.5
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 9.0