Utah
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
12  Grayson Murphy SR 19:17
103  Poppy Tank SO 19:59
192  Amanda Gehrich SO 20:15
432  Louise Mercer SR 20:45
446  Jessica Sams SR 20:46
547  Hannah McInturff SR 20:55
697  Trina Moreno FR 21:08
790  Dakota Grossman SR 21:14
892  Aubrey Argyle FR 21:21
1,038  Caitie Faust JR 21:31
National Rank #27 of 348
Mountain Region Rank #6 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 59.0%
Most Likely Finish 23rd at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 1.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 22.9%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 45.2%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Grayson Murphy Poppy Tank Amanda Gehrich Louise Mercer Jessica Sams Hannah McInturff Trina Moreno Dakota Grossman Aubrey Argyle Caitie Faust
BRC/MSU Classic 09/16 983 20:38 20:32 21:05 20:55 21:33 21:11 21:27
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/29 490 19:07 19:57 19:56 20:48 20:30 20:52 21:03 21:46 21:38
Steven Reeder Invitational 10/06 1253
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 595 18:53 19:46 20:11 21:05 21:19 21:03 21:07
Pac-12 Championship 10/27 507 19:22 19:47 20:19 20:33 20:32 21:24 20:56 21:02 21:14 21:11
Mountain Region Championships 11/10 553 19:24 20:01 20:15 20:37 20:39 20:55 21:24





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 59.0% 21.7 531 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.2 3.1 3.7 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.4 3.2 3.3 1.7 0.6
Region Championship 100% 5.7 173 4.5 13.8 26.9 27.5 17.4 7.7 2.0 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Grayson Murphy 100% 15.1 0.7 1.3 2.8 3.5 3.8 4.0 3.6 4.2 4.2 3.7 4.4 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.6 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.1 2.7 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.7
Poppy Tank 71.1% 92.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Amanda Gehrich 60.6% 140.3 0.1
Louise Mercer 59.0% 208.8
Jessica Sams 59.0% 210.0
Hannah McInturff 59.0% 223.9
Trina Moreno 59.0% 236.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Grayson Murphy 4.5 3.3 13.9 13.9 12.3 14.0 12.6 9.4 6.2 4.3 2.9 2.6 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Poppy Tank 19.8 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.2 3.9 3.0 4.2 4.1 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.7 3.9 4.4 4.0
Amanda Gehrich 30.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.6
Louise Mercer 58.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Jessica Sams 60.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Hannah McInturff 68.8 0.2
Trina Moreno 83.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 4.5% 96.7% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 4.4 3
4 13.8% 88.4% 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.5 1.6 12.2 4
5 26.9% 78.3% 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.9 2.8 3.7 3.0 3.5 3.4 5.9 21.1 5
6 27.5% 58.5% 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.1 4.0 4.6 11.4 16.1 6
7 17.4% 29.6% 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.2 2.6 12.3 5.2 7
8 7.7% 2.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.5 0.2 8
9 2.0% 2.0 9
10 0.3% 0.3 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 59.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.6 3.8 5.9 6.6 8.5 8.5 10.2 11.1 41.0 0.0 59.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
California 58.5% 1.0 0.6
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
Indiana 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Ohio State 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Air Force 32.3% 2.0 0.6
Eastern Michigan 29.6% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 26.5% 1.0 0.3
Baylor 17.5% 2.0 0.3
Yale 14.2% 1.0 0.1
Virginia 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 4.9% 2.0 0.1
Alabama 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 11.0