Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Baylor 100.0%   1   16 - 2 4 - 2 25 - 6 12 - 6 +18.9      +11.0 5 +7.9 14 69.3 156 +19.6 4 +15.1 3
7 Kansas 99.9%   1   15 - 2 4 - 1 25 - 6 13 - 5 +17.9      +11.2 4 +6.6 28 71.1 113 +19.0 6 +20.5 1
14 Texas Tech 98.4%   4   14 - 4 4 - 2 22 - 9 11 - 7 +15.4      +4.5 61 +10.9 2 63.9 309 +15.7 19 +17.2 2
17 Texas 81.4%   6   13 - 5 3 - 3 20 - 11 9 - 9 +14.2      +7.3 24 +7.0 22 58.4 353 +10.9 51 +10.2 8
30 Oklahoma 61.9%   7   12 - 6 2 - 4 18 - 13 8 - 10 +12.0      +5.7 39 +6.3 31 66.6 246 +10.3 55 +8.8 9
36 Iowa St. 86.7%   6   14 - 4 2 - 4 21 - 10 8 - 10 +11.3      +2.3 107 +9.0 9 69.0 169 +16.5 15 +11.7 6
43 West Virginia 61.2%   7   13 - 4 2 - 3 19 - 12 7 - 11 +10.3      +3.6 81 +6.7 26 69.2 164 +14.1 29 +10.7 7
46 Oklahoma St. 41.3%   10 - 7 3 - 3 15 - 15 8 - 10 +10.0      +0.9 152 +9.1 8 73.5 69 +9.1 63 +14.3 4
55 Kansas St. 17.9%   10 - 7 2 - 4 15 - 15 6 - 12 +8.9      +1.6 129 +7.3 19 66.2 258 +8.4 71 +8.6 10
57 TCU 38.7%   12 - 3 2 - 2 17 - 13 7 - 11 +8.6      +1.9 117 +6.7 27 66.3 254 +12.6 39 +12.4 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Baylor 2.0 42.2 31.7 16.4 5.6 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kansas 1.8 54.2 25.9 12.0 4.7 1.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1
Texas Tech 2.9 19.1 28.0 26.7 12.5 7.1 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Texas 4.6 4.4 10.0 16.0 20.9 17.3 13.1 8.7 5.6 2.8 1.1
Oklahoma 6.2 0.8 3.1 7.4 12.7 15.0 16.0 14.6 13.4 10.3 6.7
Iowa St. 6.1 0.7 2.9 7.5 15.3 16.2 15.9 13.6 11.5 9.4 6.9
West Virginia 6.7 0.7 2.4 5.4 10.9 12.6 13.8 14.6 15.1 13.4 11.1
Oklahoma St. 6.0 1.0 3.4 7.9 14.7 16.0 15.8 14.4 12.1 9.0 5.7
Kansas St. 7.8 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.1 7.2 10.2 13.8 17.5 20.3 24.6
TCU 7.2 0.6 1.7 4.1 7.6 9.9 12.2 13.4 16.4 16.9 17.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Baylor 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.6 7.8 14.8 20.7 22.7 17.5 9.3 2.1
Kansas 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 6.2 11.5 17.4 20.5 19.0 13.5 6.4 1.6
Texas Tech 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 9.6 16.2 19.7 20.2 15.0 8.4 3.2 0.5
Texas 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.3 11.1 16.6 20.1 19.2 13.9 7.7 2.9 0.9 0.1
Oklahoma 8 - 10 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.9 14.1 18.6 19.8 16.6 10.8 5.6 2.0 0.5 0.1
Iowa St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 2.9 6.7 12.7 17.8 20.6 17.5 12.1 6.1 2.2 0.5 0.0
West Virginia 7 - 11 0.3 1.7 5.6 10.7 16.4 19.5 17.5 13.5 8.4 4.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oklahoma St. 8 - 10 0.4 2.2 6.8 12.8 18.6 19.9 17.4 12.1 6.2 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Kansas St. 6 - 12 1.1 5.2 11.8 18.3 21.5 18.8 12.8 6.6 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
TCU 7 - 11 0.7 3.6 8.7 14.3 18.8 18.4 15.2 10.4 5.7 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Baylor 42.2% 27.5 12.0 2.4 0.3 0.0
Kansas 54.2% 39.2 12.4 2.3 0.3 0.0
Texas Tech 19.1% 10.1 6.8 1.9 0.2 0.0
Texas 4.4% 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
Oklahoma 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Iowa St. 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St. 1.0% 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kansas St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TCU 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Baylor 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1   41.5 32.6 17.1 5.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Kansas 99.9% 27.9% 72.0% 1   42.7 30.2 15.4 7.3 2.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Texas Tech 98.4% 14.3% 84.1% 4   4.3 10.2 21.1 20.6 18.0 11.6 6.1 2.9 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 98.2%
Texas 81.4% 9.8% 71.5% 6   0.6 2.0 6.2 9.3 13.8 14.3 12.2 8.4 4.9 3.7 3.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 18.6 79.3%
Oklahoma 61.9% 4.1% 57.8% 7   0.1 0.3 1.6 3.5 6.8 9.5 10.3 8.5 5.8 5.3 6.3 3.8 0.2 0.0 38.1 60.3%
Iowa St. 86.7% 3.5% 83.3% 6   0.2 0.9 4.0 7.7 13.6 15.2 12.1 10.2 8.3 6.5 5.6 2.5 0.1 13.3 86.3%
West Virginia 61.2% 2.7% 58.5% 7   0.1 0.5 1.8 4.1 7.0 9.0 8.8 7.7 6.8 5.4 5.7 4.1 0.3 0.0 38.8 60.1%
Oklahoma St. 41.3% 2.7% 38.6% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.0 4.3 5.8 6.2 5.6 4.6 4.0 5.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 58.7 39.7%
Kansas St. 17.9% 1.3% 16.6% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.6 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 82.1 16.8%
TCU 38.7% 1.3% 37.3% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.6 4.2 5.9 6.1 5.5 4.2 5.0 3.3 0.2 0.0 61.3 37.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Baylor 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.4% 71.7% 46.2% 26.3% 14.2% 7.3%
Kansas 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 94.1% 67.0% 40.8% 22.3% 11.4% 5.6%
Texas Tech 98.4% 1.0% 98.0% 77.9% 45.9% 21.5% 10.0% 4.4% 1.7%
Texas 81.4% 4.2% 79.8% 55.6% 27.5% 12.5% 5.3% 2.3% 0.8%
Oklahoma 61.9% 7.4% 58.7% 35.0% 13.2% 4.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Iowa St. 86.7% 5.4% 84.0% 48.0% 17.7% 6.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
West Virginia 61.2% 7.5% 57.5% 31.0% 10.4% 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Oklahoma St. 41.3% 8.0% 37.6% 19.4% 6.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Kansas St. 17.9% 4.5% 15.7% 7.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
TCU 38.7% 6.2% 35.4% 16.8% 5.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.9 0.4 6.4 27.4 41.0 20.9 3.7 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 6.7 0.7 9.6 32.5 39.0 15.8 2.3 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.4 9.9 27.6 34.8 20.4 5.2 0.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.6% 2.7 1.4 11.1 31.3 35.9 16.6 3.4 0.3
Elite Eight 85.1% 1.4 14.9 41.4 33.7 9.1 1.0 0.1
Final Four 57.5% 0.7 42.5 45.4 11.4 0.7 0.0
Final Game 32.3% 0.3 67.7 30.3 2.0
Champion 16.1% 0.2 83.9 16.1