Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#36
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#15
Pace69.0#169
Improvement+0.6#153

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#107
First Shot+1.7#124
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#127
Layup/Dunks+1.8#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#224
Freethrows-0.4#206
Improvement+2.8#38

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#9
First Shot+7.7#11
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#70
Layups/Dunks+9.0#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#36
Freethrows-1.7#287
Improvement-2.1#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 12.7% 15.5% 6.2%
Top 6 Seed 41.5% 48.2% 25.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.7% 91.0% 76.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.3% 90.6% 76.3%
Average Seed 6.9 6.7 7.7
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 38.4% 46.2% 20.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 14.1% 8.9% 26.4%
First Four5.4% 4.4% 7.7%
First Round84.0% 88.7% 72.7%
Second Round48.0% 52.4% 37.6%
Sweet Sixteen17.7% 20.0% 12.4%
Elite Eight6.0% 6.7% 4.2%
Final Four2.1% 2.4% 1.3%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 9
Quad 24 - 112 - 11
Quad 32 - 014 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 214   Kennesaw St. W 84-73 93%     1 - 0 +6.1 -3.0 +7.5
  Nov 12, 2021 124   Oregon St. W 60-50 85%     2 - 0 +10.4 -15.8 +25.9
  Nov 16, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 68-60 98%     3 - 0 -6.7 -14.1 +7.0
  Nov 21, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 82-47 98%     4 - 0 +22.2 +10.0 +15.0
  Nov 24, 2021 19   Xavier W 82-70 40%     5 - 0 +25.8 +15.0 +10.6
  Nov 26, 2021 41   Memphis W 78-59 53%     6 - 0 +29.6 +7.5 +21.4
  Dec 01, 2021 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83-64 99%     7 - 0 -2.6 +0.2 -2.5
  Dec 04, 2021 45   @ Creighton W 64-58 44%     8 - 0 +18.7 +2.0 +17.1
  Dec 09, 2021 21   Iowa W 73-53 52%     9 - 0 +30.7 +5.7 +26.1
  Dec 12, 2021 268   Jackson St. W 47-37 95%     10 - 0 +1.8 -18.2 +21.5
  Dec 19, 2021 304   SE Louisiana W 77-54 97%     11 - 0 +12.2 +4.5 +9.8
  Dec 21, 2021 350   Chicago St. W 79-48 99%     12 - 0 +14.0 -1.6 +15.3
  Jan 01, 2022 5   Baylor L 72-77 31%     12 - 1 0 - 1 +11.4 +2.6 +8.9
  Jan 05, 2022 14   Texas Tech W 51-47 44%     13 - 1 1 - 1 +16.8 -8.7 +25.9
  Jan 08, 2022 30   @ Oklahoma L 66-79 37%     13 - 2 1 - 2 +1.5 +8.4 -8.4
  Jan 11, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 61-62 19%     13 - 3 1 - 3 +19.4 +3.0 +16.2
  Jan 15, 2022 17   Texas W 79-70 48%     14 - 3 2 - 3 +20.7 +13.0 +7.9
  Jan 18, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech L 60-72 26%     14 - 4 2 - 4 +5.9 +0.6 +5.0
  Jan 22, 2022 57   TCU W 66-61 70%    
  Jan 26, 2022 46   @ Oklahoma St. L 64-65 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 126   Missouri W 72-61 86%    
  Feb 01, 2022 7   Kansas L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 05, 2022 17   @ Texas L 59-64 29%    
  Feb 08, 2022 43   @ West Virginia L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 12, 2022 55   Kansas St. W 65-60 69%    
  Feb 15, 2022 57   @ TCU W 64-63 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 30   Oklahoma W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 23, 2022 43   West Virginia W 67-64 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 55   @ Kansas St. L 62-63 48%    
  Mar 02, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. W 67-63 65%    
  Mar 05, 2022 5   @ Baylor L 64-74 16%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.8 6.2 6.6 1.7 0.1 15.3 4th
5th 0.3 5.9 8.1 1.9 0.1 16.2 5th
6th 0.0 3.6 9.5 2.7 0.1 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 8.1 4.0 0.1 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.5 5.0 0.3 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.8 0.7 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.8 0.9 0.0 6.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.9 6.7 12.7 17.8 20.6 17.5 12.1 6.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 52.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 51.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 13.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 2.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.2% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 3.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 6.1% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 4.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.1% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 4.9 0.0 0.9 3.0 4.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
9-9 17.5% 99.9% 4.8% 95.1% 5.7 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.3 6.6 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 20.6% 99.1% 3.1% 96.0% 7.2 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.6 6.4 4.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.1%
7-11 17.8% 93.4% 1.7% 91.7% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 4.1 4.7 3.2 1.4 0.2 1.2 93.3%
6-12 12.7% 71.3% 0.6% 70.7% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.3 1.1 0.0 3.7 71.1%
5-13 6.7% 31.5% 0.1% 31.4% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.1 4.6 31.4%
4-14 2.9% 4.6% 4.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8 4.6%
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 86.7% 3.5% 83.3% 6.9 0.2 0.9 4.0 7.7 13.6 15.2 12.1 10.2 8.3 6.5 5.6 2.5 0.1 13.3 86.3%