Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#14
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#19
Pace63.9#309
Improvement+2.2#79

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#61
First Shot+3.1#84
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#78
Layup/Dunks+4.3#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#236
Freethrows+0.3#156
Improvement-0.2#184

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#2
First Shot+11.0#4
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#180
Layups/Dunks+13.4#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#302
Freethrows+1.7#68
Improvement+2.4#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.3% 5.0% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 14.5% 16.8% 6.1%
Top 4 Seed 56.1% 61.2% 38.6%
Top 6 Seed 85.7% 89.4% 72.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 99.3% 95.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 99.1% 95.0%
Average Seed 4.4 4.2 5.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 96.1% 81.7%
Conference Champion 19.1% 21.9% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 2.6%
First Round98.0% 99.0% 94.3%
Second Round77.9% 80.0% 70.6%
Sweet Sixteen45.9% 48.4% 37.4%
Elite Eight21.5% 22.9% 16.6%
Final Four10.0% 10.8% 7.5%
Championship Game4.4% 4.8% 3.1%
National Champion1.7% 1.9% 1.1%

Next Game: West Virginia (Home) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 25 - 114 - 10
Quad 31 - 015 - 10
Quad 49 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 313   North Florida W 89-74 98%     1 - 0 +3.8 +7.8 -4.5
  Nov 12, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 88-62 99%     2 - 0 +13.2 +8.6 +4.4
  Nov 15, 2021 303   Prairie View W 84-49 98%     3 - 0 +24.2 +2.1 +21.1
  Nov 20, 2021 353   Incarnate Word W 84-62 99%     4 - 0 +6.4 +7.4 +0.2
  Nov 23, 2021 338   Nebraska Omaha W 96-40 99%     5 - 0 +41.5 +18.0 +25.9
  Nov 27, 2021 335   Lamar W 89-57 99%     6 - 0 +18.0 +10.0 +8.8
  Dec 01, 2021 44   @ Providence L 68-72 60%     6 - 1 +8.8 +3.1 +5.7
  Dec 07, 2021 15   Tennessee W 57-52 OT 53%     7 - 1 +19.6 -11.5 +30.6
  Dec 14, 2021 194   Arkansas St. W 75-62 95%     8 - 1 +9.1 +5.6 +4.5
  Dec 18, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 55-69 24%     8 - 2 +8.6 -5.4 +12.8
  Dec 22, 2021 222   Eastern Washington W 78-46 96%     9 - 2 +26.6 +9.6 +20.4
  Dec 28, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 75-53 99%     10 - 2 +7.3 -5.8 +12.4
  Jan 05, 2022 36   @ Iowa St. L 47-51 56%     10 - 3 0 - 1 +9.8 -12.4 +21.9
  Jan 08, 2022 7   Kansas W 75-67 50%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +23.3 +12.1 +11.7
  Jan 11, 2022 5   @ Baylor W 65-62 28%     12 - 3 2 - 1 +24.4 +8.3 +16.4
  Jan 13, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. W 78-57 77%     13 - 3 3 - 1 +28.5 +13.3 +15.2
  Jan 15, 2022 55   @ Kansas St. L 51-62 65%     13 - 4 3 - 2 +0.4 -10.2 +9.9
  Jan 18, 2022 36   Iowa St. W 72-60 74%     14 - 4 4 - 2 +20.8 +8.4 +12.6
  Jan 22, 2022 43   West Virginia W 67-59 78%    
  Jan 24, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 65-70 30%    
  Jan 29, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 68-60 78%    
  Feb 01, 2022 17   Texas W 61-57 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 43   @ West Virginia W 65-62 58%    
  Feb 09, 2022 30   @ Oklahoma W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 57   TCU W 66-57 82%    
  Feb 16, 2022 5   Baylor L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 19, 2022 17   @ Texas L 59-60 43%    
  Feb 22, 2022 30   Oklahoma W 66-60 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 57   @ TCU W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 28, 2022 55   Kansas St. W 65-56 81%    
  Mar 05, 2022 46   @ Oklahoma St. W 64-61 59%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.3 6.3 3.0 0.5 19.1 1st
2nd 0.7 5.9 11.5 7.6 2.1 0.2 28.0 2nd
3rd 0.8 7.4 11.4 6.0 1.1 0.1 26.7 3rd
4th 0.2 3.7 6.6 2.1 0.1 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.2 1.4 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.1 1.9 7th
8th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.7 9.6 16.2 19.7 20.2 15.0 8.4 3.2 0.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 95.1% 3.0    2.6 0.4
14-4 74.3% 6.3    3.9 2.1 0.2
13-5 42.3% 6.3    2.6 3.0 0.8 0.0
12-6 12.9% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1
11-7 1.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 10.1 6.8 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.3 0.4 0.2 100.0%
15-3 3.2% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 1.8 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.4% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 2.3 1.7 3.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.0% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 3.0 0.8 3.5 6.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 20.2% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 3.7 0.2 1.4 7.3 7.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.7% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 4.5 0.0 0.2 3.1 6.5 6.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 16.2% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 5.4 0.0 0.7 2.4 5.4 4.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 9.6% 99.3% 7.7% 91.6% 6.5 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
8-10 4.7% 92.1% 7.5% 84.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 91.5%
7-11 1.8% 63.0% 4.8% 58.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 61.2%
6-12 0.5% 29.2% 2.4% 26.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 27.5%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.4% 14.3% 84.1% 4.4 4.3 10.2 21.1 20.6 18.0 11.6 6.1 2.9 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.6 98.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 85.5 14.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 60.3 39.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 69.2 30.8