Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#55
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#71
Pace66.2#258
Improvement+3.5#44

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#129
First Shot+1.6#128
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#184
Layup/Dunks+2.2#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#112
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement+2.8#37

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#19
First Shot+3.5#67
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#5
Layups/Dunks+3.6#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#145
Freethrows+0.0#188
Improvement+0.8#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 4.4% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 31.9% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.8% 30.7% 11.2%
Average Seed 9.2 8.9 9.5
.500 or above 42.8% 62.0% 34.9%
.500 or above in Conference 10.5% 21.0% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.2% 23.3% 45.8%
First Four4.5% 6.7% 3.5%
First Round15.7% 28.4% 10.5%
Second Round7.4% 13.8% 4.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 4.0% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.6% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Home) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 45 - 12
Quad 23 - 48 - 16
Quad 31 - 09 - 16
Quad 46 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 320   Florida A&M W 67-57 97%     1 - 0 -2.6 -8.2 +5.9
  Nov 17, 2021 338   Nebraska Omaha W 79-64 97%     2 - 0 +0.5 -3.1 +3.6
  Nov 22, 2021 31   Arkansas L 64-72 38%     2 - 1 +3.9 -5.7 +9.9
  Nov 23, 2021 11   Illinois L 64-72 23%     2 - 2 +8.7 +0.2 +8.2
  Nov 28, 2021 347   North Dakota W 84-42 98%     3 - 2 +25.6 -0.7 +26.1
  Dec 01, 2021 255   Albany W 71-43 93%     4 - 2 +20.5 +5.3 +18.1
  Dec 05, 2021 87   @ Wichita St. W 65-59 49%     5 - 2 +15.1 -1.1 +16.2
  Dec 08, 2021 37   Marquette L 63-64 53%     5 - 3 +7.2 -4.5 +11.7
  Dec 12, 2021 321   Green Bay W 82-64 97%     6 - 3 +5.3 +13.7 -5.7
  Dec 19, 2021 140   @ Nebraska W 67-58 68%     7 - 3 +13.0 -9.9 +22.1
  Dec 21, 2021 323   McNeese St. W 74-59 97%     8 - 3 +2.2 -2.4 +5.3
  Jan 01, 2022 30   @ Oklahoma L 69-71 29%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +12.5 +8.0 +4.5
  Jan 04, 2022 17   Texas L 57-70 39%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -1.3 -0.9 -2.5
  Jan 08, 2022 43   @ West Virginia L 68-71 35%     8 - 6 0 - 3 +9.9 +2.5 +7.3
  Jan 12, 2022 57   TCU L 57-60 61%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +3.1 -8.0 +11.0
  Jan 15, 2022 14   Texas Tech W 62-51 35%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +23.8 +2.6 +21.9
  Jan 18, 2022 17   @ Texas W 66-65 23%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +17.8 +12.5 +5.4
  Jan 22, 2022 7   Kansas L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 25, 2022 5   @ Baylor L 61-74 11%    
  Jan 29, 2022 109   @ Mississippi W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 02, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. W 65-64 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 57   @ TCU L 62-64 40%    
  Feb 09, 2022 5   Baylor L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 12, 2022 36   @ Iowa St. L 60-65 31%    
  Feb 14, 2022 43   West Virginia W 65-64 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 46   @ Oklahoma St. L 62-66 35%    
  Feb 22, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 64-75 13%    
  Feb 26, 2022 36   Iowa St. W 63-62 52%    
  Feb 28, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech L 56-65 19%    
  Mar 05, 2022 30   Oklahoma L 64-65 50%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.4 0.1 4.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.6 2.9 0.4 7.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 5.9 1.0 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 8.7 2.6 0.1 13.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 9.4 5.7 0.3 17.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 8.6 8.1 0.9 0.0 20.3 9th
10th 1.1 5.1 9.2 7.7 1.5 0.0 24.6 10th
Total 1.1 5.2 11.8 18.3 21.5 18.8 12.8 6.6 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 28.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.8% 100.0% 6.8% 93.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
10-8 2.9% 98.0% 4.9% 93.1% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.9%
9-9 6.6% 86.3% 4.1% 82.2% 8.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.9 85.7%
8-10 12.8% 47.5% 2.5% 45.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.2 2.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.7 46.2%
7-11 18.8% 10.9% 1.9% 9.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 16.7 9.2%
6-12 21.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.3 0.6%
5-13 18.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.3
4-14 11.8% 11.8
3-15 5.2% 5.2
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.9% 1.3% 16.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.6 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 82.1 16.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%