TCU
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#57
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#39
Pace66.3#254
Improvement+2.7#65

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#117
First Shot-1.5#231
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#7
Layup/Dunks+2.8#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#252
Freethrows-1.5#294
Improvement-1.2#250

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#27
First Shot+5.6#34
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#81
Layups/Dunks+2.8#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows+2.4#36
Improvement+3.9#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 3.4% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 8.4% 16.5% 4.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.7% 58.4% 30.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.8% 57.5% 29.6%
Average Seed 8.4 7.9 8.7
.500 or above 84.9% 95.5% 80.4%
.500 or above in Conference 20.4% 36.7% 13.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 29.7% 13.5% 36.5%
First Four6.2% 6.7% 6.0%
First Round35.4% 54.9% 27.1%
Second Round16.8% 26.7% 12.6%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 8.1% 3.6%
Elite Eight1.4% 2.2% 1.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 29.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 11
Quad 24 - 29 - 13
Quad 33 - 011 - 14
Quad 46 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 323   McNeese St. W 77-61 97%     1 - 0 +3.2 -11.2 +12.6
  Nov 15, 2021 309   Southern Miss W 83-51 96%     2 - 0 +21.0 +3.2 +16.4
  Nov 18, 2021 218   Nicholls St. W 63-50 89%     3 - 0 +7.9 -9.3 +17.9
  Nov 22, 2021 95   Santa Clara L 66-85 61%     3 - 1 -13.1 -5.2 -7.9
  Nov 24, 2021 253   Pepperdine W 73-64 89%     4 - 1 +4.1 +4.3 +0.5
  Nov 29, 2021 314   Austin Peay W 68-51 96%     5 - 1 +5.8 -0.2 +8.5
  Dec 02, 2021 120   Oral Roberts W 71-63 77%     6 - 1 +8.7 +1.2 +8.1
  Dec 08, 2021 111   Utah W 76-62 66%     7 - 1 +18.2 +4.5 +13.9
  Dec 11, 2021 60   Texas A&M W 68-64 50%     8 - 1 +12.5 +2.8 +9.8
  Dec 18, 2021 155   @ Georgetown W 80-73 71%     9 - 1 +10.0 +3.3 +6.4
  Dec 21, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 90-55 97%     10 - 1 +22.2 +9.2 +12.2
  Jan 08, 2022 5   Baylor L 64-76 23%     10 - 2 0 - 1 +4.4 +2.2 +1.4
  Jan 12, 2022 55   @ Kansas St. W 60-57 39%     11 - 2 1 - 1 +14.4 -1.8 +16.3
  Jan 15, 2022 30   Oklahoma W 59-58 OT 46%     12 - 2 2 - 1 +10.5 -9.8 +20.3
  Jan 19, 2022 46   @ Oklahoma St. L 56-57 35%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +11.5 -2.1 +13.6
  Jan 22, 2022 36   @ Iowa St. L 61-66 30%    
  Jan 25, 2022 17   Texas L 60-63 40%    
  Jan 29, 2022 13   LSU L 62-67 31%    
  Jan 31, 2022 30   @ Oklahoma L 62-68 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 55   Kansas St. W 64-62 60%    
  Feb 08, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. W 65-64 56%    
  Feb 12, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech L 57-66 18%    
  Feb 15, 2022 36   Iowa St. L 63-64 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 5   @ Baylor L 62-75 11%    
  Feb 21, 2022 43   West Virginia W 66-65 55%    
  Feb 23, 2022 17   @ Texas L 57-65 21%    
  Feb 26, 2022 14   Texas Tech L 59-63 37%    
  Mar 01, 2022 7   Kansas L 66-73 29%    
  Mar 03, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 64-76 14%    
  Mar 05, 2022 43   @ West Virginia L 63-67 33%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.3 4.3 4.7 0.6 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 7.0 1.5 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 8.1 2.9 0.1 13.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 8.6 5.8 0.3 16.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 7.3 6.8 0.7 0.0 16.9 9th
10th 0.7 3.5 6.6 5.4 1.1 0.0 17.4 10th
Total 0.7 3.6 8.7 14.3 18.8 18.4 15.2 10.4 5.7 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 83.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 69.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 23.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.3% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.1% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 4.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.9% 99.8% 5.8% 94.0% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 5.7% 98.9% 3.9% 95.1% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
9-9 10.4% 95.1% 2.8% 92.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.5 95.0%
8-10 15.2% 73.6% 1.7% 71.9% 9.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 2.8 2.3 2.1 0.9 0.0 4.0 73.1%
7-11 18.4% 33.3% 0.8% 32.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.1 1.7 0.1 12.3 32.8%
6-12 18.8% 7.8% 0.5% 7.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 17.3 7.4%
5-13 14.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.2 0.7%
4-14 8.7% 8.7
3-15 3.6% 3.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.7% 1.3% 37.3% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.6 4.2 5.9 6.1 5.5 4.2 5.0 3.3 0.2 0.0 61.3 37.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%