Baylor
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.9#5
Expected Predictive Rating+19.6#4
Pace69.3#156
Improvement-4.4#345

Offense
Total Offense+11.0#5
First Shot+7.9#11
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#18
Layup/Dunks+1.9#106
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#39
Freethrows-2.1#313
Improvement-1.4#265

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#14
First Shot+4.0#59
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#4
Layups/Dunks+7.0#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#101
Freethrows+1.2#93
Improvement-3.1#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 13.6% 16.6% 8.1%
#1 Seed 41.5% 48.6% 28.7%
Top 2 Seed 74.1% 80.8% 62.2%
Top 4 Seed 97.2% 98.6% 94.7%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 2.0 1.8 2.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.5% 99.4% 96.9%
Conference Champion 42.2% 49.6% 28.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.4% 96.6% 93.1%
Sweet Sixteen71.7% 73.6% 68.2%
Elite Eight46.2% 48.4% 42.4%
Final Four26.3% 28.0% 23.3%
Championship Game14.2% 15.2% 12.4%
National Champion7.3% 8.1% 5.9%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 64.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 47 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 213 - 5
Quad 26 - 119 - 7
Quad 32 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 353   Incarnate Word W 87-60 99.7%    1 - 0 +8.9 +3.7 +4.9
  Nov 15, 2021 218   Nicholls St. W 89-60 98%     2 - 0 +23.9 +4.6 +16.5
  Nov 17, 2021 329   Central Arkansas W 92-47 99%     3 - 0 +31.4 -5.6 +29.6
  Nov 20, 2021 76   Stanford W 86-48 90%     4 - 0 +42.9 +23.0 +22.6
  Nov 24, 2021 119   Arizona St. W 75-63 92%     5 - 0 +15.4 +8.7 +7.0
  Nov 25, 2021 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 69-61 86%     6 - 0 +15.4 +6.8 +8.7
  Nov 26, 2021 20   Michigan St. W 75-58 70%     7 - 0 +30.3 +16.6 +15.3
  Dec 04, 2021 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 99-54 99.8%    8 - 0 +23.4 +12.5 +9.8
  Dec 12, 2021 6   Villanova W 57-36 63%     9 - 0 +36.4 +0.8 +39.0
  Dec 18, 2021 40   @ Oregon W 78-70 71%     10 - 0 +21.1 +19.4 +2.8
  Dec 20, 2021 277   Alcorn St. W 94-57 99%     11 - 0 +27.9 +16.0 +11.7
  Dec 28, 2021 345   Northwestern St. W 104-68 99.5%    12 - 0 +20.3 +7.8 +7.8
  Jan 01, 2022 36   @ Iowa St. W 77-72 69%     13 - 0 1 - 0 +18.8 +11.0 +7.5
  Jan 04, 2022 30   Oklahoma W 84-74 81%     14 - 0 2 - 0 +19.5 +13.6 +5.6
  Jan 08, 2022 57   @ TCU W 76-64 77%     15 - 0 3 - 0 +23.1 +16.3 +7.6
  Jan 11, 2022 14   Texas Tech L 62-65 72%     15 - 1 3 - 1 +9.8 +5.4 +4.1
  Jan 15, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. L 54-61 86%     15 - 2 3 - 2 +0.5 -6.6 +6.5
  Jan 18, 2022 43   @ West Virginia W 77-68 72%     16 - 2 4 - 2 +21.9 +14.6 +7.5
  Jan 22, 2022 30   @ Oklahoma W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 25, 2022 55   Kansas St. W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 29, 2022 16   @ Alabama W 79-77 55%    
  Jan 31, 2022 43   West Virginia W 76-65 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 75-76 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 55   @ Kansas St. W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 12, 2022 17   Texas W 70-63 76%    
  Feb 16, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 19, 2022 57   TCU W 75-62 89%    
  Feb 21, 2022 46   @ Oklahoma St. W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 7   Kansas W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 28, 2022 17   @ Texas W 67-65 55%    
  Mar 05, 2022 36   Iowa St. W 74-64 84%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.0 12.0 14.5 9.1 2.1 42.2 1st
2nd 0.5 5.7 12.3 9.9 3.0 0.2 31.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.7 7.4 4.2 0.8 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.2 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.6 7.8 14.8 20.7 22.7 17.5 9.3 2.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.1    2.1
15-3 98.0% 9.1    8.3 0.8
14-4 82.7% 14.5    10.3 4.0 0.2
13-5 52.7% 12.0    5.9 5.2 0.9 0.0
12-6 19.6% 4.0    0.9 1.9 1.1 0.1
11-7 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.2% 42.2 27.5 12.0 2.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.1% 100.0% 48.2% 51.8% 1.1 2.0 0.1 100.0%
15-3 9.3% 100.0% 44.0% 56.0% 1.1 8.0 1.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.5% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 1.3 12.9 4.5 0.1 100.0%
13-5 22.7% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.6 11.5 9.8 1.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 20.7% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 2.0 5.5 10.2 4.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.8% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2.6 1.5 5.5 6.1 1.7 0.1 100.0%
10-8 7.8% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 3.3 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
9-9 3.6% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 3.9 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 1.2% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.3% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.0% 87.5% 12.5% 75.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 2.0 41.5 32.6 17.1 5.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.0 95.1 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.7 7.3