Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#46
Expected Predictive Rating+9.1#63
Pace73.5#69
Improvement+0.5#160

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#152
First Shot-0.3#189
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#82
Layup/Dunks+4.6#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#302
Freethrows+0.9#107
Improvement-0.4#202

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#8
First Shot+8.6#7
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#138
Layups/Dunks+5.7#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#6
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#150
Freethrows-1.2#276
Improvement+0.9#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.2% 5.2% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 9.5% 19.3% 6.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.3% 61.9% 34.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.7% 60.4% 33.0%
Average Seed 8.4 7.9 8.7
.500 or above 52.2% 71.9% 45.7%
.500 or above in Conference 39.2% 60.4% 32.2%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 4.6% 15.0%
First Four8.0% 9.2% 7.6%
First Round37.6% 57.7% 30.9%
Second Round19.4% 31.3% 15.5%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 10.9% 4.6%
Elite Eight2.0% 3.7% 1.5%
Final Four0.6% 1.3% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 12
Quad 24 - 210 - 14
Quad 32 - 212 - 16
Quad 44 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 220   Texas Arlington W 88-45 92%     1 - 0 +37.7 +12.5 +24.1
  Nov 12, 2021 105   Oakland L 55-56 78%     1 - 1 +1.0 -15.0 +16.0
  Nov 14, 2021 303   Prairie View W 72-59 96%     2 - 1 +2.2 -13.6 +14.7
  Nov 16, 2021 262   Umass Lowell W 80-58 92%     3 - 1 +16.7 +4.1 +11.9
  Nov 17, 2021 97   North Carolina St. W 74-68 66%     4 - 1 +11.8 -2.4 +13.9
  Nov 22, 2021 203   College of Charleston W 96-66 90%     5 - 1 +25.7 +7.8 +13.6
  Nov 26, 2021 120   @ Oral Roberts W 78-77 OT 66%     6 - 1 +6.7 -1.6 +8.2
  Dec 01, 2021 87   Wichita St. L 51-60 72%     6 - 2 -4.9 -14.4 +9.1
  Dec 05, 2021 19   Xavier L 71-77 45%     6 - 3 +5.2 -1.8 +7.5
  Dec 13, 2021 156   Cleveland St. W 98-93 OT 87%     7 - 3 +2.9 +5.4 -3.4
  Dec 18, 2021 9   Houston L 61-72 24%     7 - 4 +6.5 -4.2 +10.7
  Jan 04, 2022 7   Kansas L 63-74 30%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +4.3 -6.1 +10.7
  Jan 08, 2022 17   Texas W 64-51 43%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +24.7 +6.2 +20.4
  Jan 11, 2022 43   @ West Virginia L 60-70 39%     8 - 6 1 - 2 +2.9 -5.9 +8.9
  Jan 13, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech L 57-78 23%     8 - 7 1 - 3 -3.1 -3.5 +0.2
  Jan 15, 2022 5   @ Baylor W 61-54 14%     9 - 7 2 - 3 +28.4 +2.3 +26.7
  Jan 19, 2022 57   TCU W 57-56 65%     10 - 7 3 - 3 +7.1 -6.0 +13.2
  Jan 22, 2022 17   @ Texas L 59-66 25%    
  Jan 26, 2022 36   Iowa St. W 65-64 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 35   @ Florida L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 02, 2022 55   @ Kansas St. L 64-65 43%    
  Feb 05, 2022 30   Oklahoma W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 08, 2022 57   @ TCU L 64-65 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 43   West Virginia W 68-66 60%    
  Feb 14, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 67-77 16%    
  Feb 19, 2022 55   Kansas St. W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 21, 2022 5   Baylor L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 26, 2022 30   @ Oklahoma L 64-69 32%    
  Mar 02, 2022 36   @ Iowa St. L 63-67 35%    
  Mar 05, 2022 14   Texas Tech L 61-64 41%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.4 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.4 3.1 0.8 0.1 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 6.0 6.4 1.5 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.3 5.6 8.2 1.8 0.1 16.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 9.5 2.4 0.1 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 8.5 3.9 0.2 14.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.7 5.3 0.3 12.1 8th
9th 0.4 3.2 4.6 0.7 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.4 1.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.7 10th
Total 0.4 2.2 6.8 12.8 18.6 19.9 17.4 12.1 6.2 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 76.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 49.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
12-6 14.3% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 6.3% 93.8% 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.8% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.5% 99.6% 9.1% 90.5% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 6.2% 99.3% 6.7% 92.6% 6.3 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.2%
10-8 12.1% 96.9% 4.4% 92.5% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 96.8%
9-9 17.4% 75.8% 3.7% 72.2% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 0.2 4.2 74.9%
8-10 19.9% 28.9% 2.6% 26.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.4 0.3 14.2 27.0%
7-11 18.6% 4.7% 1.0% 3.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 17.7 3.8%
6-12 12.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.1%
5-13 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 6.8
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.3% 2.7% 38.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.0 4.3 5.8 6.2 5.6 4.6 4.0 5.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 58.7 39.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%