Oklahoma
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#30
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#55
Pace66.6#246
Improvement+0.2#174

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#39
First Shot+6.3#25
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#227
Layup/Dunks+9.2#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
Freethrows-0.1#187
Improvement-0.4#203

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#31
First Shot+4.5#49
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#48
Layups/Dunks+1.4#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#134
Freethrows+1.3#89
Improvement+0.7#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.5% 10.4% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 21.8% 34.6% 14.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.9% 79.2% 52.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.3% 78.0% 50.6%
Average Seed 7.6 7.1 8.1
.500 or above 89.4% 96.7% 85.4%
.500 or above in Conference 35.5% 53.4% 25.4%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 6.4% 18.5%
First Four7.4% 6.1% 8.2%
First Round58.7% 76.4% 48.8%
Second Round35.0% 47.6% 28.1%
Sweet Sixteen13.2% 19.0% 10.0%
Elite Eight4.9% 7.4% 3.6%
Final Four1.8% 2.8% 1.2%
Championship Game0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 35.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 11
Quad 25 - 211 - 13
Quad 32 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 345   Northwestern St. W 77-59 99%     1 - 0 +2.3 -6.4 +8.6
  Nov 12, 2021 318   Texas San Antonio W 96-44 98%     2 - 0 +39.9 +13.7 +24.0
  Nov 18, 2021 153   East Carolina W 79-74 86%     3 - 0 +5.5 +8.2 -2.5
  Nov 19, 2021 169   Indiana St. W 87-63 87%     4 - 0 +23.9 +10.2 +12.2
  Nov 21, 2021 73   Utah St. L 70-73 67%     4 - 1 +4.5 +1.2 +3.2
  Nov 24, 2021 354   Houston Baptist W 57-40 99%     5 - 1 -2.6 -23.8 +22.5
  Nov 27, 2021 81   @ Central Florida W 65-62 59%     6 - 1 +12.6 +2.7 +10.2
  Dec 01, 2021 35   Florida W 74-67 62%     7 - 1 +16.0 +3.8 +12.1
  Dec 07, 2021 118   Butler L 62-66 OT 85%     7 - 2 -3.0 -5.4 +2.2
  Dec 11, 2021 31   Arkansas W 88-66 50%     8 - 2 +33.9 +16.8 +16.1
  Dec 19, 2021 220   Texas Arlington W 70-50 94%     9 - 2 +14.7 +0.5 +15.2
  Dec 22, 2021 277   Alcorn St. W 72-48 96%     10 - 2 +14.9 +0.3 +16.5
  Jan 01, 2022 55   Kansas St. W 71-69 71%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +8.4 +8.5 +0.0
  Jan 04, 2022 5   @ Baylor L 74-84 19%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +11.4 +7.9 +3.8
  Jan 08, 2022 36   Iowa St. W 79-66 63%     12 - 3 2 - 1 +21.8 +23.0 +0.2
  Jan 11, 2022 17   @ Texas L 52-66 32%     12 - 4 2 - 2 +2.8 -5.8 +6.7
  Jan 15, 2022 57   @ TCU L 58-59 OT 54%     12 - 5 2 - 3 +10.1 -7.9 +18.1
  Jan 18, 2022 7   Kansas L 64-67 37%     12 - 6 2 - 4 +12.3 +4.0 +8.0
  Jan 22, 2022 5   Baylor L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 26, 2022 43   @ West Virginia L 67-68 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 8   @ Auburn L 68-76 21%    
  Jan 31, 2022 57   TCU W 68-62 73%    
  Feb 05, 2022 46   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 09, 2022 14   Texas Tech L 63-64 49%    
  Feb 12, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 68-76 20%    
  Feb 15, 2022 17   Texas W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 36   @ Iowa St. L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 22, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech L 60-66 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. W 69-64 68%    
  Mar 01, 2022 43   West Virginia W 69-65 67%    
  Mar 05, 2022 55   @ Kansas St. W 65-64 50%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.7 5.7 5.3 1.0 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.3 5.4 7.7 1.5 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 9.6 2.5 0.1 16.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 8.7 3.7 0.2 14.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 6.6 5.2 0.4 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.7 0.7 10.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.9 14.1 18.6 19.8 16.6 10.8 5.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 75.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 64.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 15.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 2.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.0% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 5.6% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 4.9 0.0 0.6 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.8% 99.5% 7.4% 92.2% 5.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.7 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
9-9 16.6% 98.8% 5.6% 93.1% 7.1 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 5.2 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.7%
8-10 19.8% 83.1% 4.4% 78.7% 9.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 3.3 82.3%
7-11 18.6% 45.0% 2.3% 42.7% 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.7 2.1 0.2 10.2 43.7%
6-12 14.1% 13.1% 1.6% 11.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 12.3 11.7%
5-13 7.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.8 0.9%
4-14 3.1% 3.1
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 61.9% 4.1% 57.8% 7.6 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.5 6.8 9.5 10.3 8.5 5.8 5.3 6.3 3.8 0.2 0.0 38.1 60.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%