Texas
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#17
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#51
Pace58.4#353
Improvement-1.1#219

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#24
First Shot+5.4#38
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#52
Layup/Dunks+2.0#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
Freethrows+1.6#71
Improvement+0.5#151

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#22
First Shot+5.6#33
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#66
Layups/Dunks+4.4#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#146
Freethrows+0.6#144
Improvement-1.5#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 3.1% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 18.0% 21.1% 8.8%
Top 6 Seed 46.2% 51.6% 29.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.4% 84.7% 71.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.3% 82.9% 69.0%
Average Seed 6.4 6.1 7.2
.500 or above 98.9% 99.5% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 64.8% 71.8% 43.5%
Conference Champion 4.4% 5.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.9% 7.5%
First Four4.2% 3.5% 6.5%
First Round79.8% 83.5% 68.6%
Second Round55.6% 59.5% 43.7%
Sweet Sixteen27.5% 29.9% 20.1%
Elite Eight12.5% 13.7% 8.9%
Final Four5.3% 5.9% 3.7%
Championship Game2.3% 2.5% 1.6%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.5%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Home) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 10
Quad 24 - 111 - 12
Quad 31 - 012 - 12
Quad 49 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 354   Houston Baptist W 92-48 99%     1 - 0 +24.4 +18.7 +11.4
  Nov 13, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 74-86 15%     1 - 1 +13.1 +16.1 -3.9
  Nov 17, 2021 209   Northern Colorado W 62-49 95%     2 - 1 +8.3 -7.9 +17.8
  Nov 20, 2021 287   San Jose St. W 79-45 98%     3 - 1 +24.3 -1.3 +25.0
  Nov 24, 2021 236   California Baptist W 68-44 96%     4 - 1 +17.5 +0.3 +20.5
  Nov 29, 2021 212   Sam Houston St. W 73-57 95%     5 - 1 +11.2 +13.9 +0.7
  Dec 03, 2021 276   UT Rio Grande Valley W 88-58 97%     6 - 1 +21.0 +9.8 +11.3
  Dec 09, 2021 23   @ Seton Hall L 60-64 45%     6 - 2 +11.4 +1.8 +9.1
  Dec 14, 2021 356   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 63-31 99.6%    7 - 2 +10.4 -9.1 +25.6
  Dec 19, 2021 76   Stanford W 60-53 74%     8 - 2 +14.4 -4.2 +19.1
  Dec 22, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 68-48 99%     9 - 2 +5.3 -5.2 +12.1
  Dec 28, 2021 353   Incarnate Word W 78-33 99%     10 - 2 +26.9 +4.8 +27.4
  Jan 01, 2022 43   West Virginia W 74-59 73%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +22.8 +9.0 +14.3
  Jan 04, 2022 55   @ Kansas St. W 70-57 61%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +24.4 +17.0 +9.5
  Jan 08, 2022 46   @ Oklahoma St. L 51-64 57%     12 - 3 2 - 1 -0.5 -4.0 +1.7
  Jan 11, 2022 30   Oklahoma W 66-52 68%     13 - 3 3 - 1 +23.5 +6.9 +18.4
  Jan 15, 2022 36   @ Iowa St. L 70-79 52%     13 - 4 3 - 2 +4.8 +8.4 -3.7
  Jan 18, 2022 55   Kansas St. L 65-66 77%     13 - 5 3 - 3 +5.4 +9.1 -3.9
  Jan 22, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. W 66-59 75%    
  Jan 25, 2022 57   @ TCU W 63-60 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 15   Tennessee W 64-62 60%    
  Feb 01, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech L 57-61 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 36   Iowa St. W 64-59 71%    
  Feb 07, 2022 7   Kansas L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 5   @ Baylor L 63-70 24%    
  Feb 15, 2022 30   @ Oklahoma L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 19, 2022 14   Texas Tech W 60-59 57%    
  Feb 23, 2022 57   TCU W 65-57 79%    
  Feb 26, 2022 43   @ West Virginia W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 28, 2022 5   Baylor L 65-67 45%    
  Mar 05, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 64-70 28%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.9 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.6 3.9 4.3 1.1 0.0 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.2 7.1 1.9 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 7.8 9.8 2.4 0.1 20.9 4th
5th 0.3 5.5 8.9 2.5 0.1 17.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 7.5 2.5 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.6 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.5 0.2 5.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.3 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.3 11.1 16.6 20.1 19.2 13.9 7.7 2.9 0.9 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 94.7% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 60.2% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 18.6% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1
11-7 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.9% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.9% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 3.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.7% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 3.8 0.1 0.7 2.4 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.9% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.6 4.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 19.2% 99.7% 10.3% 89.4% 5.9 0.0 0.5 2.0 5.1 6.0 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.7%
9-9 20.1% 96.5% 8.8% 87.6% 7.1 0.1 0.4 2.2 4.4 5.5 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 96.2%
8-10 16.6% 76.7% 6.0% 70.7% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.1 3.9 75.2%
7-11 11.1% 36.0% 3.8% 32.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.1 7.1 33.5%
6-12 5.3% 10.3% 2.4% 7.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.8 8.1%
5-13 1.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.7%
4-14 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 81.4% 9.8% 71.5% 6.4 0.6 2.0 6.2 9.3 13.8 14.3 12.2 8.4 4.9 3.7 3.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 18.6 79.3%