West Virginia
Big 12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#43
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#29
Pace69.2#164
Improvement+0.3#173

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#81
First Shot+0.3#165
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#13
Layup/Dunks-0.7#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#292
Freethrows+1.5#77
Improvement-0.2#191

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#26
First Shot+6.2#21
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#134
Layups/Dunks-0.6#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#137
Freethrows+3.4#5
Improvement+0.5#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 2.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.5% 14.2% 4.3%
Top 6 Seed 22.5% 40.0% 17.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.2% 81.3% 55.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.1% 80.5% 54.4%
Average Seed 7.6 6.8 7.9
.500 or above 93.9% 98.8% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 28.3% 48.6% 22.5%
Conference Champion 0.7% 2.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 20.8% 9.7% 23.9%
First Four7.5% 5.8% 8.0%
First Round57.5% 78.3% 51.6%
Second Round31.0% 45.1% 27.0%
Sweet Sixteen10.4% 16.8% 8.5%
Elite Eight3.8% 6.1% 3.1%
Final Four1.3% 2.0% 1.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 22.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 46 - 12
Quad 25 - 111 - 13
Quad 33 - 013 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 105   Oakland W 60-53 79%     1 - 0 +9.0 -12.2 +21.2
  Nov 12, 2021 139   Pittsburgh W 74-59 85%     2 - 0 +14.0 +3.0 +11.3
  Nov 18, 2021 232   Elon W 87-68 90%     3 - 0 +15.2 +6.8 +7.4
  Nov 19, 2021 37   Marquette L 71-82 49%     3 - 1 -0.3 +4.2 -4.5
  Nov 21, 2021 68   Clemson W 66-59 59%     4 - 1 +15.0 +1.6 +13.9
  Nov 26, 2021 216   Eastern Kentucky W 80-77 92%     5 - 1 -2.0 +10.9 -12.7
  Nov 30, 2021 192   Bellarmine W 74-55 90%     6 - 1 +15.1 +2.6 +14.1
  Dec 04, 2021 285   Radford W 67-51 96%     7 - 1 +6.3 -8.4 +15.0
  Dec 08, 2021 18   Connecticut W 56-53 46%     8 - 1 +14.3 -4.6 +19.3
  Dec 12, 2021 164   Kent St. W 63-50 88%     9 - 1 +10.5 -2.6 +14.4
  Dec 18, 2021 50   @ UAB W 65-59 44%     10 - 1 +18.0 +1.7 +16.7
  Dec 22, 2021 250   Youngstown St. W 82-52 94%     11 - 1 +22.8 +4.5 +18.4
  Jan 01, 2022 17   @ Texas L 59-74 27%     11 - 2 0 - 1 +1.8 -3.7 +5.0
  Jan 08, 2022 55   Kansas St. W 71-68 65%     12 - 2 1 - 1 +9.4 +3.5 +5.8
  Jan 11, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. W 70-60 61%     13 - 2 2 - 1 +17.5 +3.8 +13.5
  Jan 15, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 59-85 17%     13 - 3 2 - 2 -5.6 -8.2 +3.5
  Jan 18, 2022 5   Baylor L 68-77 28%     13 - 4 2 - 3 +7.4 +3.9 +3.2
  Jan 22, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech L 59-67 22%    
  Jan 26, 2022 30   Oklahoma W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 31   @ Arkansas L 71-75 33%    
  Jan 31, 2022 5   @ Baylor L 65-76 14%    
  Feb 05, 2022 14   Texas Tech L 62-65 42%    
  Feb 08, 2022 36   Iowa St. W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 12, 2022 46   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-68 40%    
  Feb 14, 2022 55   @ Kansas St. L 64-65 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 7   Kansas L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 21, 2022 57   @ TCU L 65-66 45%    
  Feb 23, 2022 36   @ Iowa St. L 64-67 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 17   Texas L 63-64 46%    
  Mar 01, 2022 30   @ Oklahoma L 65-69 33%    
  Mar 05, 2022 57   TCU W 67-63 67%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.2 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.5 2.0 0.4 0.1 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.6 4.6 1.0 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.3 5.0 6.2 1.1 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 8.2 2.0 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.1 8.9 3.4 0.2 14.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 7.5 6.0 0.3 15.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 5.5 5.8 0.8 13.4 9th
10th 0.3 1.7 4.3 4.0 0.9 0.0 11.1 10th
Total 0.3 1.7 5.6 10.7 16.4 19.5 17.5 13.5 8.4 4.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 45.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 38.8% 61.2% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.5% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 100.0%
11-7 4.3% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 8.4% 99.9% 4.9% 95.1% 5.5 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 13.5% 99.1% 5.6% 93.6% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 4.0 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
8-10 17.5% 92.2% 3.4% 88.8% 8.2 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 4.1 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.4 92.0%
7-11 19.5% 63.0% 1.4% 61.5% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.4 2.6 3.1 1.8 0.1 7.2 62.4%
6-12 16.4% 25.8% 0.4% 25.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.1 25.5%
5-13 10.7% 3.4% 0.2% 3.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.3 3.2%
4-14 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 5.6 0.1%
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 61.2% 2.7% 58.5% 7.6 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.1 7.0 9.0 8.8 7.7 6.8 5.4 5.7 4.1 0.3 0.0 38.8 60.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%