Kansas
Big 12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#7
Expected Predictive Rating+19.0#6
Pace71.1#113
Improvement-1.6#247

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#4
First Shot+9.6#5
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#66
Layup/Dunks+7.4#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#126
Freethrows+0.2#159
Improvement-2.9#328

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#28
First Shot+6.1#23
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#136
Layups/Dunks+2.2#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#74
Freethrows+1.5#81
Improvement+1.3#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 12.8% 15.2% 7.0%
#1 Seed 42.7% 47.8% 30.4%
Top 2 Seed 72.9% 78.7% 58.8%
Top 4 Seed 95.6% 97.4% 91.3%
Top 6 Seed 99.2% 99.7% 98.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 2.0 1.9 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.5% 96.9%
Conference Champion 54.2% 61.0% 37.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round94.1% 95.2% 91.4%
Sweet Sixteen67.0% 69.4% 61.3%
Elite Eight40.8% 43.1% 35.3%
Final Four22.3% 23.6% 19.2%
Championship Game11.4% 12.1% 9.5%
National Champion5.6% 6.1% 4.4%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 56 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 111 - 6
Quad 27 - 118 - 7
Quad 35 - 023 - 7
Quad 43 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 20   Michigan St. W 87-74 67%     1 - 0 +26.3 +13.5 +11.6
  Nov 12, 2021 171   Tarleton St. W 88-62 96%     2 - 0 +23.1 +21.2 +3.5
  Nov 18, 2021 224   Stony Brook W 88-59 97%     3 - 0 +23.6 +12.5 +11.4
  Nov 25, 2021 83   North Texas W 71-59 84%     4 - 0 +19.0 +4.3 +14.9
  Nov 26, 2021 72   Dayton L 73-74 83%     4 - 1 +6.5 +5.9 +0.6
  Nov 28, 2021 90   Iona W 96-83 86%     5 - 1 +19.4 +22.1 -3.3
  Dec 03, 2021 92   @ St. John's W 95-75 81%     6 - 1 +28.8 +18.6 +8.7
  Dec 07, 2021 168   UTEP W 78-52 96%     7 - 1 +23.4 +6.1 +17.3
  Dec 11, 2021 126   Missouri W 102-65 94%     8 - 1 +37.1 +27.1 +8.9
  Dec 18, 2021 162   Stephen F. Austin W 80-72 96%     9 - 1 +5.6 +4.8 +0.6
  Dec 29, 2021 116   Nevada W 88-61 93%     10 - 1 +28.1 +7.2 +18.4
  Jan 01, 2022 123   George Mason W 76-67 94%     11 - 1 +9.4 +4.6 +5.0
  Jan 04, 2022 46   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-63 70%     12 - 1 1 - 0 +23.5 +9.6 +13.7
  Jan 08, 2022 14   @ Texas Tech L 67-75 50%     12 - 2 1 - 1 +9.9 +10.4 -1.0
  Jan 11, 2022 36   Iowa St. W 62-61 81%     13 - 2 2 - 1 +9.8 +3.9 +5.9
  Jan 15, 2022 43   West Virginia W 85-59 83%     14 - 2 3 - 1 +33.8 +14.4 +18.4
  Jan 18, 2022 30   @ Oklahoma W 67-64 63%     15 - 2 4 - 1 +17.5 +9.6 +8.3
  Jan 22, 2022 55   @ Kansas St. W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 24, 2022 14   Texas Tech W 70-65 70%    
  Jan 29, 2022 3   Kentucky W 77-76 56%    
  Feb 01, 2022 36   @ Iowa St. W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 5   Baylor W 76-75 57%    
  Feb 07, 2022 17   @ Texas W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 30   Oklahoma W 76-68 80%    
  Feb 14, 2022 46   Oklahoma St. W 77-67 84%    
  Feb 19, 2022 43   @ West Virginia W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 22, 2022 55   Kansas St. W 75-64 87%    
  Feb 26, 2022 5   @ Baylor L 73-77 36%    
  Mar 01, 2022 57   @ TCU W 73-66 71%    
  Mar 03, 2022 57   TCU W 76-64 86%    
  Mar 05, 2022 17   Texas W 70-64 72%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.9 11.8 16.6 13.4 6.4 1.6 54.2 1st
2nd 0.5 4.7 10.1 8.1 2.4 0.1 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 5.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 2.5 1.0 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 6.2 11.5 17.4 20.5 19.0 13.5 6.4 1.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6
16-2 100.0% 6.4    6.4 0.0
15-3 99.3% 13.4    12.4 1.0
14-4 87.4% 16.6    12.3 4.2 0.2
13-5 57.8% 11.8    5.6 5.3 0.9 0.0
12-6 22.6% 3.9    0.9 1.9 1.0 0.2
11-7 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.2% 54.2 39.2 12.4 2.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.6% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.1 1.5 0.1 100.0%
16-2 6.4% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5% 1.1 5.6 0.8 100.0%
15-3 13.5% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.2 10.5 2.9 0.1 100.0%
14-4 19.0% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.4 12.1 6.1 0.8 0.0 100.0%
13-5 20.5% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 1.7 8.7 8.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 17.4% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.3 3.4 7.5 5.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.5% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 2.9 0.8 3.2 4.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 6.2% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 3.7 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 2.7% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.9% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.3% 89.1% 6.5% 82.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.4%
6-12 0.1% 69.2% 69.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.2%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 27.9% 72.0% 2.0 42.7 30.2 15.4 7.3 2.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 91.1 8.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 97.0 3.0