Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
114 Towson 31.1%   14   13 - 5 4 - 1 22 - 9 13 - 5 +4.1      +4.2 66 -0.2 172 63.6 314 +5.4 97 +5.6 2
132 Hofstra 19.4%   9 - 7 3 - 2 18 - 11 12 - 6 +2.2      +3.9 75 -1.7 224 69.8 145 +4.7 105 +1.7 4
146 Delaware 14.6%   11 - 6 3 - 2 19 - 11 11 - 7 +1.0      +3.0 96 -2.0 233 66.2 260 +3.4 122 +3.9 3
158 Drexel 12.2%   6 - 7 2 - 2 14 - 13 10 - 8 +0.3      +2.0 116 -1.7 221 64.8 296 -0.2 172 +1.2 5
180 James Madison 8.9%   9 - 4 2 - 2 16 - 11 9 - 9 -0.7      +0.9 153 -1.6 218 75.5 43 +4.0 111 -4.0 8
203 College of Charleston 5.4%   9 - 6 1 - 2 16 - 14 8 - 10 -1.8      -1.2 210 -0.6 186 84.5 1 +1.6 147 -9.4 9
217 Northeastern 3.1%   6 - 11 0 - 6 12 - 17 6 - 12 -2.5      -1.8 222 -0.7 194 65.5 277 -3.2 224 -18.1 10
232 Elon 2.8%   3 - 13 2 - 3 8 - 21 7 - 11 -3.8      -0.9 204 -2.9 263 65.7 271 -7.1 282 -4.0 7
256 UNC Wilmington 2.6%   7 - 5 3 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -5.0      -2.4 243 -2.6 254 67.8 202 -1.7 197 +13.5 1
340 William & Mary 0.1%   2 - 14 2 - 2 4 - 26 4 - 14 -12.2      -7.6 341 -4.6 310 71.3 107 -14.8 340 -2.2 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Towson 1.8 59.5 19.9 10.8 5.6 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 2.9 22.8 27.1 20.2 13.9 8.0 4.6 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.0
Delaware 2.9 22.1 24.7 20.7 15.0 9.1 4.7 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
Drexel 3.8 11.1 17.7 19.2 18.1 13.6 9.2 6.2 3.3 1.2 0.2
James Madison 4.9 5.4 9.2 12.4 15.9 18.0 15.1 11.9 7.8 3.5 0.6
College of Charleston 6.0 2.3 4.7 6.9 10.5 13.9 17.2 16.5 14.7 9.7 3.5
Northeastern 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.9 9.3 14.7 22.3 32.1 13.8
Elon 6.5 0.6 2.2 4.4 7.6 12.8 17.1 20.8 19.8 11.1 3.6
UNC Wilmington 5.5 3.5 6.2 9.0 12.3 16.3 17.4 16.0 11.4 6.0 1.7
William & Mary 9.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 4.5 10.2 25.0 57.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Towson 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.9 10.2 16.2 20.5 20.7 15.6 7.4 1.8
Hofstra 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 4.1 8.2 13.7 18.5 19.9 17.4 10.6 4.6 0.9
Delaware 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 4.3 9.0 14.7 19.6 19.7 16.6 9.3 3.8 0.6
Drexel 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.9 9.6 13.8 17.8 18.6 15.3 10.1 4.9 1.6 0.3
James Madison 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 6.4 10.9 15.3 17.8 17.4 13.3 8.7 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.0
College of Charleston 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 7.8 12.2 16.5 16.7 16.1 11.4 7.6 4.2 1.8 0.5 0.1
Northeastern 6 - 12 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.3 13.8 18.9 20.9 17.2 10.8 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.1
Elon 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 4.0 10.0 16.3 19.3 19.1 15.3 8.6 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.0
UNC Wilmington 9 - 9 0.2 1.6 5.0 10.1 15.1 17.5 17.3 13.7 9.6 5.6 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 4 - 14 13.0 24.8 26.0 18.7 10.5 4.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Towson 59.5% 43.5 12.6 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 22.8% 11.9 8.1 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Delaware 22.1% 11.9 7.5 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Drexel 11.1% 5.0 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
James Madison 5.4% 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
College of Charleston 2.3% 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northeastern 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elon 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 3.5% 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
William & Mary


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Towson 31.1% 31.1% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.8 13.5 12.0 2.3 0.1 68.9 0.0%
Hofstra 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 8.8 6.9 1.6 0.1 80.6 0.0%
Delaware 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.5 7.0 3.4 0.4 85.4 0.0%
Drexel 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.2 1.9 87.8 0.0%
James Madison 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.5 0.5 91.1 0.0%
College of Charleston 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.1 1.0 94.6 0.0%
Northeastern 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 96.9 0.0%
Elon 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1 2.7 97.2 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 97.4 0.0%
William & Mary 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Towson 31.1% 0.0% 31.1% 4.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 19.4% 0.0% 19.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 14.6% 0.0% 14.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 12.2% 0.7% 11.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 8.9% 0.1% 8.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 5.4% 0.4% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 3.1% 1.2% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 2.8% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 2.6% 0.7% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 97.7% 1.0 2.3 97.6 0.0
2nd Round 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0