Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#132
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#105
Pace69.8#145
Improvement-1.9#262

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#75
First Shot+7.8#12
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#352
Layup/Dunks-0.9#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#22
Freethrows+0.3#154
Improvement-2.0#292

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#224
First Shot-2.7#265
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#84
Layups/Dunks+1.3#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.3#357
Freethrows+2.2#46
Improvement+0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.4% 21.6% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 95.1% 98.2% 91.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 97.6% 88.7%
Conference Champion 22.8% 30.1% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round19.4% 21.6% 16.5%
Second Round2.0% 2.3% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 410 - 10
Quad 49 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 9   @ Houston L 75-83 OT 6%     0 - 1 +12.0 +10.1 +2.1
  Nov 13, 2021 190   @ Duquesne W 73-63 54%     1 - 1 +11.2 +5.1 +6.8
  Nov 16, 2021 90   @ Iona L 74-82 26%     1 - 2 +0.9 +2.1 -0.8
  Nov 19, 2021 70   @ Maryland L 67-69 22%     1 - 3 +8.2 -1.6 +9.9
  Nov 22, 2021 99   @ Richmond L 68-81 28%     1 - 4 -4.7 +3.1 -8.8
  Nov 27, 2021 199   Detroit Mercy W 98-84 73%     2 - 4 +9.9 +15.9 -6.8
  Dec 01, 2021 144   Princeton W 81-77 64%     3 - 4 +2.6 +2.0 +0.4
  Dec 04, 2021 331   Bucknell W 88-69 92%     4 - 4 +5.3 +10.1 -4.0
  Dec 08, 2021 224   @ Stony Brook L 62-79 60%     4 - 5 -17.4 -11.9 -5.5
  Dec 18, 2021 31   @ Arkansas W 89-81 13%     5 - 5 +22.4 +12.6 +8.9
  Dec 22, 2021 137   @ Monmouth W 77-71 43%     6 - 5 +10.1 +7.4 +2.8
  Dec 29, 2021 340   @ William & Mary L 62-63 86%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -10.7 -16.7 +6.1
  Jan 09, 2022 180   @ James Madison W 87-80 52%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +8.8 +11.2 -2.6
  Jan 11, 2022 114   @ Towson L 66-78 34%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -5.4 -3.3 -2.6
  Jan 15, 2022 146   Delaware W 82-77 64%     8 - 7 2 - 2 +3.5 +4.3 -0.8
  Jan 17, 2022 158   Drexel W 71-68 67%     9 - 7 3 - 2 +0.8 +3.4 -2.3
  Jan 22, 2022 217   @ Northeastern W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 27, 2022 203   @ College of Charleston W 82-80 54%    
  Jan 29, 2022 256   @ UNC Wilmington W 75-70 65%    
  Feb 03, 2022 114   Towson W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 180   James Madison W 81-76 71%    
  Feb 07, 2022 256   UNC Wilmington W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 10, 2022 158   @ Drexel L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 146   @ Delaware L 74-75 44%    
  Feb 15, 2022 232   @ Elon W 75-71 61%    
  Feb 19, 2022 217   Northeastern W 74-67 76%    
  Feb 24, 2022 232   Elon W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 340   William & Mary W 82-65 95%    
  Feb 28, 2022 203   College of Charleston W 84-77 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.3 7.3 7.7 4.4 0.9 22.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.1 10.6 9.0 2.8 0.2 27.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.3 9.2 6.3 1.1 0.1 20.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 6.7 4.6 0.6 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 4.1 8.2 13.7 18.5 19.9 17.4 10.6 4.6 0.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
15-3 94.7% 4.4    3.7 0.7
14-4 72.9% 7.7    4.6 2.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 42.1% 7.3    2.5 3.6 1.1 0.1
12-6 11.8% 2.3    0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.8% 22.8 11.9 8.1 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.9% 34.3% 33.3% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4%
15-3 4.6% 36.6% 36.3% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 2.9 0.5%
14-4 10.6% 28.1% 28.1% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.5 7.6
13-5 17.4% 25.3% 25.3% 13.3 0.0 0.3 2.7 1.4 0.1 13.0
12-6 19.9% 20.4% 20.4% 13.5 0.1 2.0 1.8 0.2 15.8
11-7 18.5% 15.7% 15.7% 13.7 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.6
10-8 13.7% 12.9% 12.9% 14.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 11.9
9-9 8.2% 10.8% 10.8% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 7.3
8-10 4.1% 7.6% 7.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.7
7-11 1.5% 6.1% 6.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.4
6-12 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 8.8 6.9 1.6 0.1 80.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.0 0.7 4.2 13.4 1.4 41.5 31.0 7.0 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 3.9% 11.3 2.9 1.0