James Madison
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#180
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#111
Pace75.5#43
Improvement-3.4#311

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#153
First Shot+3.9#67
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#337
Layup/Dunks+3.8#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
Freethrows+0.7#121
Improvement+4.4#10

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#218
First Shot+0.4#165
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#319
Layups/Dunks+3.1#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#299
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#309
Freethrows+2.0#59
Improvement-7.8#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.7% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 90.6% 94.2% 79.5%
.500 or above in Conference 63.4% 70.3% 42.0%
Conference Champion 5.4% 6.6% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.1% 4.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.8% 9.6% 6.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 68 - 9
Quad 410 - 217 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 184   Old Dominion W 58-53 60%     1 - 0 +1.6 -16.0 +17.7
  Nov 16, 2021 216   @ Eastern Kentucky W 79-78 47%     2 - 0 +1.0 -5.0 +5.8
  Nov 19, 2021 123   George Mason W 67-64 46%     3 - 0 +3.4 -8.7 +11.9
  Nov 22, 2021 164   Kent St. L 69-74 47%     3 - 1 -5.0 -1.7 -3.3
  Nov 23, 2021 206   Wright St. W 78-76 55%     4 - 1 +0.0 -4.1 +4.0
  Nov 24, 2021 51   Murray St. L 62-74 17%     4 - 2 -2.7 -4.6 +1.5
  Nov 28, 2021 151   @ Florida Atlantic W 69-65 35%     5 - 2 +7.2 +3.8 +3.9
  Dec 07, 2021 67   Virginia W 52-49 28%     6 - 2 +8.5 -7.4 +16.4
  Dec 11, 2021 285   Radford W 79-70 80%     7 - 2 -0.7 -2.6 +1.4
  Jan 09, 2022 132   Hofstra L 80-87 48%     7 - 3 0 - 1 -7.3 +1.8 -8.9
  Jan 11, 2022 217   Northeastern W 89-66 66%     8 - 3 1 - 1 +18.0 +19.8 -0.4
  Jan 15, 2022 340   @ William & Mary W 95-91 OT 80%     9 - 3 2 - 1 -5.7 +5.7 -11.9
  Jan 17, 2022 232   @ Elon L 67-90 52%     9 - 4 2 - 2 -24.3 -5.4 -19.6
  Jan 20, 2022 256   UNC Wilmington W 78-71 75%    
  Jan 22, 2022 203   College of Charleston W 84-80 65%    
  Jan 27, 2022 158   Drexel W 75-74 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 146   Delaware W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 31, 2022 114   @ Towson L 70-77 24%    
  Feb 03, 2022 217   @ Northeastern L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 132   @ Hofstra L 76-81 29%    
  Feb 07, 2022 158   @ Drexel L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 10, 2022 232   Elon W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 12, 2022 340   William & Mary W 81-67 91%    
  Feb 14, 2022 146   @ Delaware L 74-78 33%    
  Feb 17, 2022 203   @ College of Charleston L 82-83 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 256   @ UNC Wilmington W 75-73 55%    
  Feb 26, 2022 114   Towson L 73-75 43%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 4.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.1 6.2 2.7 0.2 12.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 8.5 3.9 0.3 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.2 9.1 5.1 0.4 18.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 7.2 4.9 0.6 15.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.3 4.3 0.5 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.2 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 6.4 10.9 15.3 17.8 17.4 13.3 8.7 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 96.3% 0.4    0.3 0.0
14-4 86.4% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 51.0% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
12-6 15.0% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 40.9% 40.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.4% 27.2% 25.7% 1.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.1%
14-4 1.6% 29.6% 29.6% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2
13-5 4.2% 22.1% 22.1% 13.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 3.3
12-6 8.7% 16.1% 16.1% 13.7 0.5 0.7 0.1 7.3
11-7 13.3% 12.8% 12.8% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 11.6
10-8 17.4% 9.5% 9.5% 14.3 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 15.7
9-9 17.8% 7.5% 7.5% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 16.4
8-10 15.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 14.5
7-11 10.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.6
6-12 6.4% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.3
5-13 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.5 0.5 91.1 0.0%