Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#158
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#172
Pace64.8#296
Improvement+0.4#168

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#116
First Shot+3.0#88
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#259
Layup/Dunks+4.3#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#249
Freethrows-1.2#275
Improvement+1.3#95

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#221
First Shot-3.6#293
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#41
Layups/Dunks-4.5#327
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#53
Freethrows+1.0#105
Improvement-0.9#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 13.1% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 15.0
.500 or above 72.0% 78.6% 52.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 87.6% 66.9%
Conference Champion 11.1% 13.6% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 1.9%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.9%
First Round11.9% 12.9% 9.1%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 77 - 11
Quad 49 - 215 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2021 61   @ Syracuse L 60-75 16%     0 - 1 -4.1 -7.8 +2.7
  Nov 17, 2021 157   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-75 40%     1 - 1 +5.9 +7.1 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2021 135   Tulane L 87-90 OT 44%     1 - 2 -1.0 +5.5 -6.2
  Nov 23, 2021 195   Charlotte W 67-55 57%     2 - 2 +10.5 +1.0 +11.2
  Nov 24, 2021 136   Jacksonville St. L 64-72 44%     2 - 3 -6.2 -3.9 -2.9
  Dec 02, 2021 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 86-65 91%     3 - 3 +6.3 +0.8 +4.4
  Dec 04, 2021 144   @ Princeton L 79-81 OT 38%     3 - 4 +1.6 -2.7 +4.5
  Dec 11, 2021 141   @ Abilene Christian L 56-73 36%     3 - 5 -13.1 -15.7 +3.6
  Dec 14, 2021 302   Coppin St. W 76-69 85%     4 - 5 -3.7 -3.6 -0.5
  Jan 03, 2022 114   Towson W 65-61 45%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +5.6 +0.6 +5.6
  Jan 11, 2022 146   Delaware L 77-81 57%     5 - 6 1 - 1 -5.5 +9.0 -14.9
  Jan 15, 2022 217   @ Northeastern W 76-68 51%     6 - 6 2 - 1 +8.0 +6.1 +2.1
  Jan 17, 2022 132   @ Hofstra L 68-71 33%     6 - 7 2 - 2 +1.7 +2.5 -1.2
  Jan 20, 2022 232   Elon W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 22, 2022 340   William & Mary W 77-62 93%    
  Jan 27, 2022 180   @ James Madison L 74-75 43%    
  Jan 29, 2022 114   @ Towson L 66-72 26%    
  Jan 31, 2022 256   @ UNC Wilmington W 71-68 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 146   @ Delaware L 69-72 37%    
  Feb 07, 2022 180   James Madison W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 10, 2022 132   Hofstra W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 12, 2022 217   Northeastern W 70-65 71%    
  Feb 14, 2022 203   @ College of Charleston L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 17, 2022 340   @ William & Mary W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 19, 2022 232   @ Elon W 70-68 54%    
  Feb 24, 2022 256   UNC Wilmington W 73-65 78%    
  Feb 26, 2022 203   College of Charleston W 79-74 68%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.5 1.5 0.3 11.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.5 7.4 5.1 1.3 0.1 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.6 9.0 5.5 1.0 0.0 19.2 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 8.9 5.4 0.7 18.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 6.5 4.6 0.5 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.3 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.5 2.5 2.9 0.4 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.9 9.6 13.8 17.8 18.6 15.3 10.1 4.9 1.6 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 94.6% 1.5    1.3 0.2
14-4 72.0% 3.5    1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 40.0% 4.0    1.4 1.9 0.7 0.1
12-6 10.9% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 5.0 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.3% 36.2% 36.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.6% 24.0% 24.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2
14-4 4.9% 26.4% 26.4% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.6
13-5 10.1% 20.7% 20.7% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 8.0
12-6 15.3% 17.2% 17.2% 14.6 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.1 12.6
11-7 18.6% 11.6% 11.6% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.2 16.5
10-8 17.8% 10.3% 10.3% 15.2 0.1 1.2 0.5 16.0
9-9 13.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 12.7
8-10 9.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 9.2
7-11 4.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 4.8
6-12 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.2 1.9 87.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.4 5.9 51.0 37.3 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%