UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#256
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#197
Pace67.8#202
Improvement+5.3#13

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#243
First Shot-4.4#307
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#49
Layup/Dunks-4.2#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#279
Freethrows-0.1#190
Improvement+5.8#2

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#254
First Shot-1.4#221
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#286
Layups/Dunks+1.8#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#345
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#94
Freethrows-2.0#301
Improvement-0.5#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 4.2% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 35.0% 56.6% 28.0%
.500 or above in Conference 50.5% 72.6% 43.3%
Conference Champion 3.5% 7.8% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 1.2% 5.6%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round2.2% 3.8% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 24.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 34 - 84 - 11
Quad 49 - 513 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 202   @ Illinois St. L 63-68 29%     0 - 1 -4.2 -11.8 +7.6
  Nov 16, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh L 51-59 20%     0 - 2 -3.9 -14.9 +10.3
  Nov 18, 2021 173   Coastal Carolina W 65-53 42%     1 - 2 +9.1 -9.8 +19.0
  Nov 20, 2021 358   @ Delaware St. W 67-63 91%     2 - 2 -15.8 -7.1 -8.1
  Nov 24, 2021 309   Southern Miss L 66-80 63%     2 - 3 -22.5 -8.7 -13.9
  Dec 01, 2021 231   Norfolk St. L 69-74 54%     2 - 4 -11.1 -3.6 -7.5
  Dec 11, 2021 238   @ Jacksonville L 48-77 37%     2 - 5 -30.6 -20.1 -11.5
  Dec 18, 2021 275   @ High Point W 71-69 OT 46%     3 - 5 -1.9 -6.1 +4.1
  Dec 22, 2021 225   Campbell W 65-58 52%     4 - 5 +1.5 -5.2 +7.4
  Dec 29, 2021 146   Delaware W 70-68 37%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +0.5 +0.8 -0.1
  Jan 12, 2022 232   Elon W 73-66 55%     6 - 5 2 - 0 +0.7 +6.4 -4.7
  Jan 17, 2022 203   @ College of Charleston W 86-78 29%     7 - 5 3 - 0 +8.7 +8.2 +0.0
  Jan 20, 2022 180   @ James Madison L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 22, 2022 114   @ Towson L 63-75 13%    
  Jan 24, 2022 217   @ Northeastern L 65-70 30%    
  Jan 27, 2022 217   Northeastern W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 29, 2022 132   Hofstra L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 31, 2022 158   Drexel L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 03, 2022 232   @ Elon L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 340   @ William & Mary W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 07, 2022 132   @ Hofstra L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 12, 2022 203   College of Charleston L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 14, 2022 340   William & Mary W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 17, 2022 114   Towson L 65-72 29%    
  Feb 19, 2022 180   James Madison L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 24, 2022 158   @ Drexel L 65-73 22%    
  Feb 26, 2022 146   @ Delaware L 66-75 20%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 4.6 1.7 0.2 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 6.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.0 8.5 4.2 0.4 16.3 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 8.5 5.1 0.5 17.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 7.5 5.3 0.8 16.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.3 4.0 0.6 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 10th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.0 10.1 15.1 17.5 17.3 13.7 9.6 5.6 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 98.4% 0.4    0.3 0.0
14-4 78.8% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 45.0% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 14.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 20.3% 20.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 12.6% 12.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
13-5 2.7% 9.0% 9.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.4
12-6 5.6% 7.8% 7.8% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 5.1
11-7 9.6% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.2 0.3 9.2
10-8 13.7% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.1 0.3 13.2
9-9 17.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.1 0.3 16.8
8-10 17.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 17.3
7-11 15.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 15.0
6-12 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.0
5-13 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%