William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#340
Expected Predictive Rating-14.8#340
Pace71.3#107
Improvement+4.6#20

Offense
Total Offense-7.6#341
First Shot-7.4#345
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#201
Layup/Dunks-2.4#273
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#320
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#239
Freethrows-0.8#243
Improvement+3.6#17

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#310
First Shot-2.7#264
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#314
Layups/Dunks-3.8#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#130
Freethrows+0.7#135
Improvement+1.0#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 4.2% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 73.5% 50.4% 75.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Away) - 6.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 112 - 16
Quad 43 - 114 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 49   @ Wake Forest L 59-77 2%     0 - 1 -5.6 -9.8 +4.8
  Nov 12, 2021 330   American L 62-74 56%     0 - 2 -25.7 -22.5 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2021 231   @ Norfolk St. L 74-91 15%     0 - 3 -18.1 -1.0 -16.0
  Nov 20, 2021 210   Georgia St. L 59-77 17%     0 - 4 -20.2 -19.8 +0.8
  Nov 21, 2021 248   Howard L 76-82 23%     0 - 5 -10.6 -4.6 -5.6
  Nov 24, 2021 285   @ Radford L 54-67 24%     0 - 6 -17.6 -15.5 -3.2
  Dec 01, 2021 148   @ Navy L 56-75 8%     0 - 7 -15.6 -8.3 -9.0
  Dec 04, 2021 53   @ Davidson L 46-70 2%     0 - 8 -12.3 -25.0 +12.6
  Dec 07, 2021 184   Old Dominion L 59-74 20%     0 - 9 -18.4 -12.2 -7.0
  Dec 09, 2021 332   Hampton L 53-54 56%     0 - 10 -14.8 -18.4 +3.5
  Dec 12, 2021 219   Fairfield L 47-70 25%     0 - 11 -28.2 -23.1 -7.3
  Dec 22, 2021 186   @ Valparaiso L 66-88 10%     0 - 12 -20.4 -2.9 -18.6
  Dec 29, 2021 132   Hofstra W 63-62 14%     1 - 12 1 - 0 +0.7 -15.4 +16.1
  Dec 31, 2021 217   Northeastern W 71-70 25%     2 - 12 2 - 0 -4.0 -9.6 +5.5
  Jan 15, 2022 180   James Madison L 91-95 OT 20%     2 - 13 2 - 1 -7.2 +2.7 -9.3
  Jan 17, 2022 114   Towson L 69-91 10%     2 - 14 2 - 2 -20.4 +0.2 -22.3
  Jan 20, 2022 146   @ Delaware L 63-79 6%    
  Jan 22, 2022 158   @ Drexel L 62-77 7%    
  Jan 25, 2022 203   @ College of Charleston L 70-83 11%    
  Jan 27, 2022 232   @ Elon L 64-75 14%    
  Jan 29, 2022 232   Elon L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 03, 2022 203   College of Charleston L 73-81 25%    
  Feb 05, 2022 256   UNC Wilmington L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 10, 2022 114   @ Towson L 60-79 4%    
  Feb 12, 2022 180   @ James Madison L 67-81 9%    
  Feb 14, 2022 256   @ UNC Wilmington L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 17, 2022 158   Drexel L 64-74 20%    
  Feb 19, 2022 146   Delaware L 65-76 18%    
  Feb 24, 2022 217   @ Northeastern L 61-73 12%    
  Feb 26, 2022 132   @ Hofstra L 65-82 5%    
Projected Record 4 - 26 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.4 3.7 4.8 1.2 0.1 10.2 8th
9th 0.4 2.9 8.7 9.6 3.3 0.2 25.0 9th
10th 12.6 21.9 16.9 5.3 0.4 0.0 57.1 10th
Total 13.0 24.8 26.0 18.7 10.5 4.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 1.7% 1.7
7-11 4.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-12 10.5% 10.5
5-13 18.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.7
4-14 26.0% 26.0
3-15 24.8% 24.8
2-16 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.3%