Delaware
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#146
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#122
Pace66.2#260
Improvement-1.3#233

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#96
First Shot+3.7#74
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#232
Layup/Dunks+1.3#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
Freethrows+1.4#81
Improvement-1.8#283

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#233
First Shot-1.6#235
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#205
Layups/Dunks+1.3#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#229
Freethrows-0.4#226
Improvement+0.5#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.6% 14.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.3
.500 or above 98.8% 99.1% 94.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 94.2% 78.8%
Conference Champion 22.1% 23.0% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round14.6% 14.9% 10.4%
Second Round1.2% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 93.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 37 - 48 - 9
Quad 413 - 221 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 53   @ Davidson L 71-93 16%     0 - 1 -10.3 +0.9 -11.6
  Nov 13, 2021 246   @ Siena W 83-63 62%     1 - 1 +17.9 +15.2 +3.6
  Nov 17, 2021 226   La Salle W 85-82 OT 74%     2 - 1 -2.6 +1.5 -4.4
  Nov 22, 2021 185   Appalachian St. W 75-68 57%     3 - 1 +6.1 +9.9 -3.1
  Nov 23, 2021 215   Fordham W 81-71 63%     4 - 1 +7.6 +9.3 -1.9
  Nov 24, 2021 105   Oakland L 73-81 37%     4 - 2 -3.5 +1.8 -5.2
  Nov 27, 2021 122   @ Temple L 74-75 34%     4 - 3 +4.4 +4.6 -0.2
  Nov 30, 2021 235   LIU Brooklyn W 75-67 76%     5 - 3 +1.5 +0.2 +1.4
  Dec 02, 2021 358   @ Delaware St. W 59-48 96%     6 - 3 -8.8 -20.6 +12.5
  Dec 05, 2021 254   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 70-60 79%     7 - 3 +2.6 -7.9 +10.3
  Dec 08, 2021 307   Lafayette W 68-58 86%     8 - 3 -0.9 -3.6 +3.8
  Dec 21, 2021 90   Iona L 72-83 30%     8 - 4 -4.6 -0.4 -3.8
  Dec 29, 2021 256   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-70 63%     8 - 5 0 - 1 -4.5 +0.5 -5.2
  Dec 31, 2021 203   @ College of Charleston W 67-66 51%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +1.7 -5.1 +6.8
  Jan 11, 2022 158   @ Drexel W 81-77 43%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +6.8 +16.3 -9.0
  Jan 15, 2022 132   @ Hofstra L 77-82 36%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -0.3 +2.2 -2.3
  Jan 17, 2022 217   @ Northeastern W 82-76 OT 54%     11 - 6 3 - 2 +6.0 +5.0 +0.6
  Jan 20, 2022 340   William & Mary W 79-63 94%    
  Jan 22, 2022 232   Elon W 74-67 78%    
  Jan 24, 2022 114   Towson L 70-71 50%    
  Jan 27, 2022 114   @ Towson L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 29, 2022 180   @ James Madison L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 158   Drexel W 72-69 63%    
  Feb 10, 2022 217   Northeastern W 72-66 73%    
  Feb 12, 2022 132   Hofstra W 75-74 56%    
  Feb 14, 2022 180   James Madison W 78-74 67%    
  Feb 17, 2022 232   @ Elon W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 340   @ William & Mary W 76-65 82%    
  Feb 24, 2022 203   College of Charleston W 80-75 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 256   UNC Wilmington W 75-66 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.7 7.4 7.4 3.7 0.6 22.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.4 10.1 8.0 1.9 0.1 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.5 9.6 6.2 1.1 0.0 20.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 7.3 4.9 0.7 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 4.3 9.0 14.7 19.6 19.7 16.6 9.3 3.8 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-3 97.6% 3.7    3.4 0.3
14-4 79.5% 7.4    4.8 2.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 45.0% 7.4    2.8 3.6 1.0 0.1
12-6 13.7% 2.7    0.4 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.1% 22.1 11.9 7.5 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.6% 31.7% 31.7% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 3.8% 24.1% 24.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.9
14-4 9.3% 25.3% 25.3% 13.5 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 7.0
13-5 16.6% 20.3% 20.3% 13.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.4 13.2
12-6 19.7% 16.9% 16.9% 14.1 0.5 2.0 0.8 0.0 16.4
11-7 19.6% 12.2% 12.2% 14.4 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 17.2
10-8 14.7% 9.1% 9.1% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 13.4
9-9 9.0% 5.5% 5.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.5
8-10 4.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.2
7-11 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.5% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.6% 14.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 7.0 3.4 0.4 85.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.2 12.6 51.6 34.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%