Elon
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#232
Expected Predictive Rating-7.1#282
Pace65.7#271
Improvement+5.5#10

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#204
First Shot+0.3#169
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#271
Layup/Dunks-5.0#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#27
Freethrows-1.1#272
Improvement+0.9#123

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#263
First Shot-2.1#252
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#247
Layups/Dunks+1.7#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows-5.4#356
Improvement+4.6#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 4.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 30.1% 52.3% 22.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 8.7% 3.3% 10.5%
First Four2.6% 3.4% 2.3%
First Round1.9% 2.8% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 25.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 33 - 103 - 18
Quad 46 - 49 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 35   @ Florida L 61-74 6%     0 - 1 +1.0 -2.7 +3.2
  Nov 18, 2021 43   West Virginia L 68-87 10%     0 - 2 -8.7 -1.6 -6.1
  Nov 19, 2021 109   Mississippi L 56-74 22%     0 - 3 -13.7 -15.0 +2.1
  Nov 21, 2021 122   Temple L 58-75 26%     0 - 4 -14.1 -10.7 -4.0
  Nov 27, 2021 136   Jacksonville St. L 81-93 38%     0 - 5 -12.7 +6.8 -19.5
  Nov 30, 2021 175   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-74 29%     0 - 6 -11.0 -6.8 -4.4
  Dec 04, 2021 275   High Point L 77-83 69%     0 - 7 -15.0 +3.4 -18.5
  Dec 11, 2021 34   @ North Carolina L 63-80 6%     0 - 8 -3.0 -10.3 +8.7
  Dec 15, 2021 183   Winthrop W 63-61 48%     1 - 8 -1.4 -7.4 +6.3
  Dec 18, 2021 10   @ Duke L 56-87 3%     1 - 9 -11.4 -9.5 -1.4
  Dec 21, 2021 31   @ Arkansas L 55-81 5%     1 - 10 -11.6 -8.3 -4.5
  Dec 29, 2021 217   Northeastern W 79-62 55%     2 - 10 1 - 0 +12.0 +14.2 -0.1
  Jan 09, 2022 203   @ College of Charleston L 61-65 33%     2 - 11 1 - 1 -3.3 -10.5 +7.2
  Jan 12, 2022 256   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-73 45%     2 - 12 1 - 2 -9.5 +1.2 -11.7
  Jan 15, 2022 114   Towson L 54-59 30%     2 - 13 1 - 3 -3.4 -13.9 +9.9
  Jan 17, 2022 180   James Madison W 90-67 48%     3 - 13 2 - 3 +19.8 +17.0 +3.5
  Jan 20, 2022 158   @ Drexel L 65-72 25%    
  Jan 22, 2022 146   @ Delaware L 67-74 22%    
  Jan 27, 2022 340   William & Mary W 75-64 86%    
  Jan 29, 2022 340   @ William & Mary W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 03, 2022 256   UNC Wilmington W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 203   College of Charleston W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 10, 2022 180   @ James Madison L 71-77 28%    
  Feb 12, 2022 114   @ Towson L 64-74 16%    
  Feb 15, 2022 132   Hofstra L 71-75 39%    
  Feb 17, 2022 146   Delaware L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 19, 2022 158   Drexel L 68-70 46%    
  Feb 24, 2022 132   @ Hofstra L 68-77 20%    
  Feb 26, 2022 217   @ Northeastern L 65-69 34%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 2.0 0.4 4.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 4.0 1.1 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.9 7.2 2.4 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.3 3.3 8.7 4.6 0.3 17.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.7 9.7 6.3 0.8 0.0 20.8 7th
8th 0.3 4.1 8.7 5.6 1.1 0.0 19.8 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 4.8 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 3.6 10th
Total 0.2 1.0 4.0 10.0 16.3 19.3 19.1 15.3 8.6 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 81.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 61.5% 0.2    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 18.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 23.8% 23.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 15.5% 15.5% 15.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.6% 13.1% 13.1% 15.7 0.1 0.2 1.4
11-7 4.2% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.4 3.8
10-8 8.6% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.4 8.1
9-9 15.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.6 14.7
8-10 19.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 18.6
7-11 19.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 19.0
6-12 16.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 16.1
5-13 10.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.0
4-14 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.0
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 2.7 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%