Towson
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#114
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#97
Pace63.6#314
Improvement-0.3#190

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#66
First Shot+3.1#86
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#91
Layup/Dunks+0.2#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#241
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#61
Freethrows+0.6#127
Improvement+0.0#173

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#172
First Shot+2.8#82
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#350
Layups/Dunks+3.6#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#275
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement-0.2#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.1% 32.3% 26.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.7% 97.1%
Conference Champion 59.5% 64.3% 40.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round31.1% 32.3% 26.3%
Second Round4.1% 4.4% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 79.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 39 - 510 - 8
Quad 414 - 124 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 255   @ Albany W 77-56 73%     1 - 0 +18.5 +8.9 +10.3
  Nov 13, 2021 137   Monmouth L 71-79 68%     1 - 1 -8.9 -6.7 -1.6
  Nov 16, 2021 332   Hampton W 78-54 94%     2 - 1 +10.2 -0.5 +10.1
  Nov 19, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh L 59-63 50%     2 - 2 +0.1 -3.2 +2.8
  Nov 23, 2021 211   Penn W 76-61 80%     3 - 2 +10.2 +3.7 +7.4
  Nov 25, 2021 39   San Francisco L 61-71 26%     3 - 3 +0.6 +2.6 -3.3
  Nov 26, 2021 193   New Mexico W 73-58 70%     4 - 3 +13.6 +3.9 +11.0
  Dec 02, 2021 235   LIU Brooklyn W 72-63 84%     5 - 3 +2.5 -1.2 +3.9
  Dec 06, 2021 164   @ Kent St. W 73-58 56%     6 - 3 +17.5 +13.1 +6.4
  Dec 08, 2021 22   @ Ohio St. L 74-85 14%     6 - 4 +4.6 +13.2 -9.6
  Dec 11, 2021 302   @ Coppin St. W 89-75 82%     7 - 4 +8.3 +11.3 -3.7
  Dec 14, 2021 175   UNC Greensboro W 74-64 75%     8 - 4 +7.0 +10.3 -2.4
  Dec 22, 2021 148   @ Navy W 69-52 53%     9 - 4 +20.4 +7.7 +14.7
  Jan 03, 2022 158   @ Drexel L 61-65 55%     9 - 5 0 - 1 -1.2 -3.0 +1.2
  Jan 09, 2022 217   Northeastern W 70-67 81%     10 - 5 1 - 1 -2.0 +5.1 -6.7
  Jan 11, 2022 132   Hofstra W 78-66 66%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +11.7 +5.1 +7.1
  Jan 15, 2022 232   @ Elon W 59-54 70%     12 - 5 3 - 1 +3.7 -8.5 +12.8
  Jan 17, 2022 340   @ William & Mary W 91-69 90%     13 - 5 4 - 1 +12.3 +22.0 -7.9
  Jan 20, 2022 203   College of Charleston W 80-72 80%    
  Jan 22, 2022 256   UNC Wilmington W 75-63 87%    
  Jan 24, 2022 146   @ Delaware W 71-70 50%    
  Jan 27, 2022 146   Delaware W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 29, 2022 158   Drexel W 72-66 74%    
  Jan 31, 2022 180   James Madison W 77-70 76%    
  Feb 03, 2022 132   @ Hofstra L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 217   @ Northeastern W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 10, 2022 340   William & Mary W 79-60 96%    
  Feb 12, 2022 232   Elon W 74-64 84%    
  Feb 17, 2022 256   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-65 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 203   @ College of Charleston W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 180   @ James Madison W 75-73 57%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.5 12.7 18.5 15.4 7.4 1.8 59.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 8.1 6.9 2.2 0.2 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.8 4.0 0.9 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.9 10.2 16.2 20.5 20.7 15.6 7.4 1.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8
16-2 100.0% 7.4    7.4 0.0
15-3 98.9% 15.4    14.4 1.0
14-4 89.5% 18.5    13.7 4.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 62.2% 12.7    5.7 5.5 1.4 0.1
12-6 21.7% 3.5    0.6 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 59.5% 59.5 43.5 12.6 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.8% 50.5% 49.4% 1.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.9 2.0%
16-2 7.4% 44.9% 44.9% 0.0% 12.7 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.3 4.1 0.0%
15-3 15.6% 40.1% 40.1% 13.1 0.0 0.8 4.0 1.4 0.0 9.3
14-4 20.7% 34.2% 34.2% 13.4 0.3 3.8 2.8 0.2 13.6
13-5 20.5% 31.1% 31.1% 13.7 0.1 2.3 3.5 0.4 14.1
12-6 16.2% 24.4% 24.4% 13.9 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.7 0.0 12.2
11-7 10.2% 20.2% 20.2% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 8.1
10-8 4.9% 17.5% 17.5% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 4.1
9-9 2.0% 12.2% 12.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
8-10 0.7% 12.1% 12.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 9.7% 9.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.1% 31.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.8 13.5 12.0 2.3 0.1 68.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 11.5 0.2 3.2 6.9 7.1 19.0 45.3 18.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 5.8% 11.7 1.9 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%