Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
90 Iona 53.6%   13   15 - 3 7 - 0 26 - 5 18 - 2 +6.4      +3.3 87 +3.1 87 74.9 53 +12.8 36 +14.4 1
137 Monmouth 17.4%   10 - 6 2 - 3 20 - 11 12 - 8 +1.6      +0.2 168 +1.4 126 70.5 128 +5.2 100 -1.5 4
177 Marist 8.9%   8 - 8 3 - 4 16 - 13 11 - 9 -0.6      -2.0 226 +1.3 133 65.3 281 -3.4 228 -3.7 6
205 St. Peter's 7.0%   5 - 6 4 - 1 12 - 14 11 - 9 -2.0      -6.5 334 +4.5 65 67.5 211 -3.2 222 +2.8 3
207 Niagara 5.2%   7 - 8 3 - 4 14 - 14 10 - 10 -2.1      -1.9 225 -0.2 174 62.6 320 -2.3 207 -5.0 8
219 Fairfield 4.2%   7 - 9 2 - 4 14 - 16 9 - 11 -2.7      -2.0 229 -0.7 191 62.7 319 -4.2 242 -4.9 7
241 Quinnipiac 2.6%   9 - 6 5 - 3 14 - 13 10 - 10 -4.4      -1.7 221 -2.7 257 74.9 52 -2.6 212 -1.8 5
246 Siena 3.0%   6 - 6 3 - 1 13 - 15 10 - 10 -4.6      -4.5 298 -0.1 171 65.7 270 -2.2 203 +4.0 2
267 Manhattan 1.4%   8 - 5 2 - 3 14 - 14 8 - 12 -5.7      -2.5 247 -3.2 276 70.3 134 -0.4 176 -6.3 9
286 Canisius 0.5%   4 - 12 1 - 5 9 - 21 6 - 14 -7.2      -4.0 283 -3.2 277 72.2 86 -8.0 291 -11.5 11
291 Rider 0.4%   4 - 11 1 - 5 9 - 20 6 - 14 -7.7      -5.1 313 -2.6 251 69.0 170 -9.8 309 -10.9 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Iona 1.0 96.6 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 3.2 3.4 43.8 22.8 12.2 7.1 4.7 2.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Marist 4.6 0.4 17.5 19.9 17.8 14.6 10.9 8.3 5.7 3.4 1.4 0.3
St. Peter's 4.0 2.8 26.8 20.9 14.9 11.6 8.4 6.3 4.5 2.6 1.0 0.2
Niagara 5.6 0.2 8.4 12.0 14.3 14.7 14.9 13.1 10.9 7.1 3.4 1.0
Fairfield 6.0 0.1 6.2 9.9 12.4 14.5 14.7 13.8 12.5 9.2 4.8 1.7
Quinnipiac 5.7 0.2 6.7 10.5 13.9 15.8 16.2 15.3 12.4 6.6 2.1 0.3
Siena 5.5 0.9 11.4 12.8 13.8 13.6 11.6 11.3 10.3 7.8 4.7 1.7
Manhattan 7.7 0.1 2.1 4.0 5.6 7.5 9.7 12.1 14.9 19.4 15.9 8.7
Canisius 9.4 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.4 6.1 9.8 17.1 28.3 31.6
Rider 9.5 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.4 6.0 9.6 16.4 26.2 34.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iona 18 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 6.0 12.3 20.3 25.3 22.3 10.4
Monmouth 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.6 8.5 13.9 18.2 19.3 16.5 10.4 4.3 0.9
Marist 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 7.7 12.2 17.6 19.1 16.9 11.9 6.4 2.2 0.4
St. Peter's 11 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.0 6.0 9.6 14.1 16.2 15.8 14.0 10.0 5.9 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1
Niagara 10 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.9 8.7 13.6 18.0 18.6 15.4 11.0 6.3 2.2 0.6 0.1
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 5.5 10.2 15.6 17.8 18.1 14.3 9.0 4.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
Quinnipiac 10 - 10 0.5 3.1 8.8 15.8 20.2 19.8 15.6 9.6 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Siena 10 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.2 5.0 8.9 12.7 14.8 15.9 14.6 10.9 7.4 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Manhattan 8 - 12 0.3 1.9 5.1 10.2 14.5 16.5 16.5 14.1 9.8 6.2 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 0.8 3.5 9.2 15.1 19.0 18.5 15.1 10.1 5.1 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.1
Rider 6 - 14 0.9 4.3 9.8 15.7 18.3 18.1 14.3 9.7 5.1 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iona 96.6% 92.4 3.9 0.3 0.0
Monmouth 3.4% 1.3 1.9 0.2 0.0
Marist 0.4% 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 2.8% 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
Niagara 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 0.9% 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 0.1% 0.0 0.0
Canisius
Rider


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iona 53.6% 49.5% 4.1% 13   0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 2.2 3.1 9.6 23.4 10.4 0.4 0.0 46.4 8.2%
Monmouth 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 8.3 5.4 1.0 0.1 82.6 0.0%
Marist 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.1 91.1 0.0%
St. Peter's 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 2.0 93.0 0.0%
Niagara 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 1.3 94.8 0.0%
Fairfield 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.2 95.8 0.0%
Quinnipiac 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 97.4 0.0%
Siena 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 97.0 0.0%
Manhattan 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 98.6 0.0%
Canisius 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Rider 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iona 53.6% 3.0% 51.9% 13.0% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 17.4% 0.0% 17.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 8.9% 0.6% 8.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 7.0% 1.0% 6.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 5.2% 0.4% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 4.2% 0.9% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 2.6% 0.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 3.0% 0.7% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.8 4.2
1st Round 97.7% 1.0 2.3 95.4 2.3
2nd Round 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0