Monmouth
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#137
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#100
Pace70.5#128
Improvement-6.7#357

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#168
First Shot+1.5#133
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#276
Layup/Dunks-0.4#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#266
Freethrows+3.4#10
Improvement-2.7#324

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#126
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#120
Layups/Dunks+3.0#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#227
Freethrows-1.9#296
Improvement-4.0#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 19.5% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 98.9% 99.7% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 96.4% 86.3%
Conference Champion 3.4% 5.2% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.4% 19.5% 14.7%
Second Round1.7% 2.2% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Away) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 36 - 69 - 8
Quad 412 - 322 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 195   @ Charlotte L 66-68 52%     0 - 1 -1.0 -5.0 +4.0
  Nov 13, 2021 114   @ Towson W 79-71 32%     1 - 1 +14.6 +1.7 +12.4
  Nov 16, 2021 294   Lehigh W 85-75 87%     2 - 1 -0.3 +1.6 -2.6
  Nov 20, 2021 157   @ Saint Joseph's W 87-75 45%     3 - 1 +14.9 +12.0 +2.4
  Nov 24, 2021 144   Princeton W 76-64 62%     4 - 1 +10.6 +2.9 +8.2
  Nov 27, 2021 74   @ Cincinnati W 61-59 21%     5 - 1 +11.9 +1.2 +10.9
  Dec 03, 2021 207   @ Niagara W 57-49 55%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +8.4 -6.7 +16.2
  Dec 05, 2021 286   @ Canisius W 79-65 73%     7 - 1 2 - 0 +9.3 -0.1 +8.7
  Dec 09, 2021 92   @ St. John's L 83-88 25%     7 - 2 +3.8 +4.0 +0.4
  Dec 12, 2021 139   @ Pittsburgh W 56-52 41%     8 - 2 +8.1 -8.5 +16.9
  Dec 14, 2021 134   @ Yale W 69-60 39%     9 - 2 +13.6 -1.0 +14.6
  Dec 19, 2021 129   Colgate W 77-66 56%     10 - 2 +11.0 +5.5 +6.0
  Dec 22, 2021 132   Hofstra L 71-77 57%     10 - 3 -6.3 -4.3 -2.0
  Jan 14, 2022 205   @ St. Peter's L 62-67 54%     10 - 4 2 - 1 -4.5 -1.3 -3.4
  Jan 16, 2022 177   @ Marist L 48-84 49%     10 - 5 2 - 2 -34.1 -20.9 -14.2
  Jan 18, 2022 90   Iona L 85-86 OT 41%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +2.9 +5.2 -2.2
  Jan 20, 2022 219   @ Fairfield W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 23, 2022 267   Manhattan W 76-66 83%    
  Jan 28, 2022 286   Canisius W 77-66 86%    
  Jan 30, 2022 207   Niagara W 69-63 74%    
  Feb 04, 2022 219   Fairfield W 70-63 75%    
  Feb 06, 2022 241   @ Quinnipiac W 76-72 61%    
  Feb 08, 2022 177   Marist W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 11, 2022 267   @ Manhattan W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 13, 2022 90   @ Iona L 70-77 23%    
  Feb 18, 2022 291   Rider W 75-63 87%    
  Feb 22, 2022 246   Siena W 71-62 81%    
  Feb 25, 2022 205   St. Peter's W 67-61 72%    
  Feb 27, 2022 246   @ Siena W 68-64 61%    
  Mar 03, 2022 241   Quinnipiac W 78-69 80%    
  Mar 05, 2022 291   @ Rider W 73-66 72%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.6 3.4 1st
2nd 0.6 4.9 12.0 13.9 9.0 3.0 0.3 43.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.2 9.2 6.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 22.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 6.2 3.7 0.5 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 2.6 0.4 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.6 8.5 13.9 18.2 19.3 16.5 10.4 4.3 0.9 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 64.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3
16-4 29.0% 1.2    0.5 0.7 0.0
15-5 10.7% 1.1    0.3 0.7 0.1
14-6 2.7% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.3 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.9% 35.8% 33.6% 2.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 3.3%
16-4 4.3% 29.9% 29.8% 0.0% 12.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 3.0 0.1%
15-5 10.4% 26.8% 26.8% 12.9 0.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.6
14-6 16.5% 23.0% 23.0% 13.1 0.0 0.5 2.4 0.9 0.0 12.7
13-7 19.3% 19.5% 19.5% 13.4 0.2 2.1 1.4 0.1 15.5
12-8 18.2% 14.3% 14.3% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 15.6
11-9 13.9% 13.1% 13.1% 13.9 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 12.1
10-10 8.5% 7.9% 7.9% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.8
9-11 4.6% 5.2% 5.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3
8-12 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
7-13 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.3% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 8.3 5.4 1.0 0.1 82.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.6 1.9 2.6 14.8 20.0 36.8 18.7 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 5.1% 12.0 2.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 2.7% 12.0 2.7