Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#267
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#176
Pace70.3#134
Improvement-1.1#221

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#247
First Shot-2.3#255
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#199
Layup/Dunks-1.4#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#334
Freethrows+4.5#2
Improvement+0.5#149

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#276
First Shot-1.5#227
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#311
Layups/Dunks-4.4#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#37
Freethrows-1.3#279
Improvement-1.6#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.6% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 43.8% 54.3% 29.8%
.500 or above in Conference 20.9% 28.6% 10.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.1% 10.1% 23.9%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round1.2% 1.4% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 411 - 614 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 215   Fordham W 66-60 47%     1 - 0 +1.1 -10.8 +11.4
  Nov 15, 2021 184   @ Old Dominion L 58-79 24%     1 - 1 -19.4 -6.8 -15.1
  Nov 19, 2021 298   North Alabama W 55-51 59%     2 - 1 -4.0 -16.3 +12.4
  Nov 20, 2021 104   Liberty W 76-60 17%     3 - 1 +20.5 +12.3 +9.8
  Nov 30, 2021 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-73 80%     4 - 1 -9.7 +1.6 -11.1
  Dec 03, 2021 246   @ Siena W 77-72 OT 36%     5 - 1 1 - 0 +2.9 +0.8 +1.9
  Dec 05, 2021 241   Quinnipiac L 73-90 55%     5 - 2 1 - 1 -23.9 -8.8 -13.9
  Dec 11, 2021 111   @ Utah L 62-96 12%     5 - 3 -27.3 -6.2 -22.6
  Dec 20, 2021 351   Charleston Southern W 99-75 81%     6 - 3 +9.0 +3.5 +1.7
  Dec 21, 2021 283   @ The Citadel W 77-74 45%     7 - 3 -1.5 -0.8 -0.7
  Jan 14, 2022 90   @ Iona L 76-88 9%     7 - 4 1 - 2 -3.1 -2.8 +1.4
  Jan 16, 2022 286   Canisius W 80-75 65%     8 - 4 2 - 2 -4.7 +3.1 -7.8
  Jan 18, 2022 207   Niagara L 63-72 46%     8 - 5 2 - 3 -13.6 -9.2 -4.8
  Jan 21, 2022 246   Siena W 68-67 57%    
  Jan 23, 2022 137   @ Monmouth L 66-76 17%    
  Jan 28, 2022 205   @ St. Peter's L 62-68 27%    
  Jan 30, 2022 177   Marist L 66-69 42%    
  Feb 04, 2022 207   @ Niagara L 64-70 27%    
  Feb 06, 2022 286   @ Canisius L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 08, 2022 291   @ Rider L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 11, 2022 137   Monmouth L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 13, 2022 241   @ Quinnipiac L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 16, 2022 219   @ Fairfield L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 20, 2022 291   Rider W 72-68 68%    
  Feb 25, 2022 177   @ Marist L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 27, 2022 219   Fairfield L 67-68 50%    
  Mar 01, 2022 205   St. Peter's L 64-65 47%    
  Mar 03, 2022 90   Iona L 69-79 20%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 2.9 0.7 0.1 5.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.4 1.2 0.1 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.6 2.8 0.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.5 5.2 0.5 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.4 7.1 1.4 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.8 6.6 8.2 2.5 0.1 19.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.7 6.0 2.0 0.1 15.9 10th
11th 0.3 1.6 3.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 8.7 11th
Total 0.3 1.9 5.1 10.2 14.5 16.5 16.5 14.1 9.8 6.2 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 64.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 24.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 12.9% 12.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 14.1% 14.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.4% 8.3% 8.3% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
12-8 3.0% 5.4% 5.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
11-9 6.2% 4.0% 4.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.9
10-10 9.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
9-11 14.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.9
8-12 16.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 16.3
7-13 16.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 16.4
6-14 14.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.4
5-15 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
4-16 5.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.1
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%