Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#207
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#207
Pace62.6#320
Improvement-2.3#278

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#225
First Shot-0.1#177
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#309
Layup/Dunks-1.9#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#194
Freethrows+1.0#95
Improvement-2.2#302

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#174
First Shot-0.5#184
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#151
Layups/Dunks+0.9#150
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#256
Freethrows+0.9#112
Improvement-0.1#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.1% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 49.6% 60.2% 33.1%
.500 or above in Conference 54.1% 65.5% 36.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.1% 5.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round5.1% 5.9% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 19   @ Xavier L 60-63 5%     0 - 1 +13.3 -4.0 +17.2
  Nov 12, 2021 22   @ Ohio St. L 74-84 6%     0 - 2 +5.6 +7.6 -2.1
  Nov 19, 2021 273   SIU Edwardsville W 70-60 66%     1 - 2 +3.6 +1.8 +2.7
  Nov 20, 2021 288   St. Thomas L 67-76 70%     1 - 3 -16.5 -4.9 -13.0
  Nov 21, 2021 250   @ Youngstown St. W 58-53 50%     2 - 3 +2.8 -10.1 +13.5
  Nov 29, 2021 129   @ Colgate W 70-59 25%     3 - 3 +16.0 +3.4 +13.5
  Dec 03, 2021 137   Monmouth L 49-57 45%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -8.9 -16.7 +6.7
  Dec 05, 2021 219   Fairfield L 71-81 62%     3 - 5 0 - 2 -15.2 -0.7 -15.0
  Dec 08, 2021 263   @ Eastern Michigan L 58-60 53%     3 - 6 -4.9 -9.8 +4.7
  Dec 18, 2021 255   Albany W 66-58 61%     4 - 6 +3.0 +0.0 +3.7
  Dec 31, 2021 241   @ Quinnipiac L 68-77 49%     4 - 7 0 - 3 -10.9 -2.7 -8.7
  Jan 09, 2022 241   Quinnipiac W 76-66 68%     5 - 7 1 - 3 +3.1 -2.0 +4.9
  Jan 13, 2022 286   Canisius W 68-58 77%     6 - 7 2 - 3 +0.3 -6.5 +7.2
  Jan 16, 2022 90   @ Iona L 55-78 15%     6 - 8 2 - 4 -14.1 -11.0 -4.1
  Jan 18, 2022 267   @ Manhattan W 72-63 54%     7 - 8 3 - 4 +5.8 -0.4 +6.5
  Jan 21, 2022 205   St. Peter's W 61-59 61%    
  Jan 23, 2022 291   Rider W 69-61 79%    
  Jan 28, 2022 246   @ Siena L 62-63 48%    
  Jan 30, 2022 137   @ Monmouth L 63-69 26%    
  Feb 04, 2022 267   Manhattan W 70-64 73%    
  Feb 06, 2022 90   Iona L 66-72 30%    
  Feb 12, 2022 219   @ Fairfield L 61-63 41%    
  Feb 14, 2022 177   @ Marist L 61-65 34%    
  Feb 19, 2022 286   @ Canisius W 69-66 57%    
  Feb 25, 2022 291   @ Rider W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 27, 2022 205   @ St. Peter's L 59-62 38%    
  Mar 03, 2022 246   Siena W 65-60 69%    
  Mar 05, 2022 177   Marist W 63-62 56%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.4 2.2 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 8.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.5 5.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.4 7.2 3.1 0.3 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 8.1 3.7 0.3 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 7.4 5.7 0.5 0.0 14.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.1 6.2 1.0 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.5 1.6 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.6 1.4 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.9 8.7 13.6 18.0 18.6 15.4 11.0 6.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 8.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 15.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 25.5% 25.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.6% 21.8% 21.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.5
14-6 2.2% 12.1% 12.1% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.9
13-7 6.3% 15.3% 15.3% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 5.3
12-8 11.0% 9.8% 9.8% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 9.9
11-9 15.4% 7.0% 7.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 14.3
10-10 18.6% 4.9% 4.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 17.7
9-11 18.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.1 0.3 17.5
8-12 13.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.4
7-13 8.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.6
6-14 3.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-15 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 1.3 94.8 0.0%