Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#177
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#228
Pace65.3#281
Improvement+6.4#6

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#226
First Shot-2.7#264
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#123
Layup/Dunks-2.8#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#91
Freethrows-2.1#314
Improvement+1.5#82

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#133
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#236
Layups/Dunks+2.6#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
Freethrows-0.7#247
Improvement+4.9#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 10.0% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 77.7% 84.7% 62.9%
.500 or above in Conference 74.5% 82.0% 58.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 2.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round8.6% 9.7% 6.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 45 - 7
Quad 412 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 330   @ American L 73-77 OT 78%     0 - 1 -12.7 -12.1 -0.2
  Nov 12, 2021 337   @ Columbia W 82-67 79%     1 - 1 +5.8 +11.8 -4.5
  Nov 17, 2021 144   @ Princeton L 61-80 34%     1 - 2 -15.4 -8.2 -8.7
  Nov 20, 2021 197   VMI W 78-74 OT 63%     2 - 2 +0.0 -5.2 +4.9
  Nov 27, 2021 266   @ Army L 61-65 59%     2 - 3 -7.0 -8.0 +0.6
  Dec 01, 2021 90   Iona L 71-78 33%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -3.1 -2.0 -0.9
  Dec 05, 2021 291   @ Rider W 79-67 67%     3 - 4 1 - 1 +6.8 +8.5 -1.2
  Dec 08, 2021 310   @ Binghamton W 64-51 70%     4 - 4 +6.9 -4.0 +12.7
  Dec 12, 2021 148   Navy L 61-67 54%     4 - 5 -7.7 -6.4 -1.7
  Dec 18, 2021 198   @ Boston University W 84-79 OT 44%     5 - 5 +6.0 +4.9 +0.7
  Dec 22, 2021 348   Bethune-Cookman W 68-45 92%     6 - 5 +6.5 -9.5 +16.3
  Jan 02, 2022 90   @ Iona L 66-69 18%     6 - 6 1 - 2 +5.9 +1.1 +4.6
  Jan 07, 2022 219   @ Fairfield W 60-51 48%     7 - 6 2 - 2 +8.8 -8.6 +18.0
  Jan 09, 2022 291   Rider L 75-79 82%     7 - 7 2 - 3 -14.2 -2.1 -12.0
  Jan 14, 2022 246   Siena L 60-67 73%     7 - 8 2 - 4 -14.1 -14.5 +0.4
  Jan 16, 2022 137   Monmouth W 84-48 51%     8 - 8 3 - 4 +35.1 +13.7 +22.4
  Jan 23, 2022 219   Fairfield W 65-60 68%    
  Jan 26, 2022 205   St. Peter's W 63-59 66%    
  Jan 28, 2022 241   @ Quinnipiac W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 30, 2022 267   @ Manhattan W 69-66 58%    
  Feb 06, 2022 205   @ St. Peter's L 60-61 44%    
  Feb 08, 2022 137   @ Monmouth L 64-69 32%    
  Feb 12, 2022 286   Canisius W 72-63 81%    
  Feb 14, 2022 207   Niagara W 65-61 66%    
  Feb 18, 2022 246   @ Siena W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 20, 2022 241   Quinnipiac W 73-67 74%    
  Feb 25, 2022 267   Manhattan W 72-64 77%    
  Mar 03, 2022 286   @ Canisius W 70-66 63%    
  Mar 05, 2022 207   @ Niagara L 62-63 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.4 3.5 6.3 5.0 2.0 0.3 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.6 8.5 4.9 1.3 0.1 19.9 3rd
4th 0.1 3.6 8.9 4.4 0.7 0.0 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 7.8 4.7 0.4 0.0 14.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.9 4.8 0.5 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.7 4.3 1.0 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 7.7 12.2 17.6 19.1 16.9 11.9 6.4 2.2 0.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 24.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1
15-5 6.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1
14-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.4% 16.4% 16.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 2.2% 25.0% 25.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6
14-6 6.4% 19.5% 19.5% 14.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 5.1
13-7 11.9% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 10.2
12-8 16.9% 10.6% 10.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 15.1
11-9 19.1% 8.4% 8.4% 15.2 0.2 0.9 0.5 17.5
10-10 17.6% 6.4% 6.4% 15.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 16.4
9-11 12.2% 4.2% 4.2% 15.7 0.2 0.3 11.6
8-12 7.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.5
7-13 3.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.6
6-14 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 2.1 91.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.6 9.7 25.8 54.8 9.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%