Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#246
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#203
Pace65.7#270
Improvement+7.5#3

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#298
First Shot-0.7#205
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#350
Layup/Dunks-1.5#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#105
Freethrows-1.9#308
Improvement+0.9#124

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#171
First Shot-1.0#208
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#94
Layups/Dunks-4.2#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#40
Freethrows+0.4#165
Improvement+6.6#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.9% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 32.7% 46.4% 22.3%
.500 or above in Conference 55.7% 71.5% 43.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.2% 6.3%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round2.7% 3.6% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 49 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 47-75 10%     0 - 1 -18.3 -15.8 -6.2
  Nov 13, 2021 146   Delaware L 63-83 38%     0 - 2 -21.5 -10.1 -12.3
  Nov 16, 2021 134   Yale L 54-82 34%     0 - 3 -28.5 -16.9 -12.6
  Nov 19, 2021 155   @ Georgetown L 65-83 23%     0 - 4 -15.0 -3.8 -12.3
  Nov 22, 2021 179   Harvard W 72-69 45%     1 - 4 -0.2 -5.6 +5.3
  Nov 28, 2021 331   @ Bucknell L 56-65 OT 66%     1 - 5 -17.7 -21.7 +3.8
  Nov 30, 2021 266   @ Army W 83-67 44%     2 - 5 +13.0 +6.2 +6.2
  Dec 03, 2021 267   Manhattan L 72-77 OT 64%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -13.2 -9.5 -3.4
  Dec 05, 2021 205   @ St. Peter's W 60-58 31%     3 - 6 1 - 1 +2.5 -5.8 +8.4
  Dec 11, 2021 344   @ Holy Cross W 72-59 72%     4 - 6 +2.5 -1.9 +5.2
  Jan 09, 2022 219   Fairfield W 69-62 52%     5 - 6 2 - 1 +1.8 -10.5 +11.9
  Jan 14, 2022 177   @ Marist W 67-60 27%     6 - 6 3 - 1 +8.9 -3.5 +12.4
  Jan 21, 2022 267   @ Manhattan L 67-68 43%    
  Jan 25, 2022 90   @ Iona L 62-76 9%    
  Jan 28, 2022 207   Niagara W 63-62 52%    
  Jan 30, 2022 241   Quinnipiac W 71-69 61%    
  Feb 01, 2022 286   Canisius W 70-65 70%    
  Feb 04, 2022 291   Rider W 68-62 72%    
  Feb 06, 2022 219   @ Fairfield L 61-65 33%    
  Feb 11, 2022 90   Iona L 65-73 22%    
  Feb 13, 2022 291   @ Rider W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 18, 2022 177   Marist L 63-64 46%    
  Feb 20, 2022 205   St. Peter's L 60-61 52%    
  Feb 22, 2022 137   @ Monmouth L 62-71 19%    
  Feb 24, 2022 241   @ Quinnipiac L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 27, 2022 137   Monmouth L 64-68 39%    
  Mar 03, 2022 207   @ Niagara L 60-65 31%    
  Mar 05, 2022 286   @ Canisius W 68-67 49%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.4 2.1 3.7 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.3 5.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 6.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 7.3 3.7 0.4 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.9 4.3 0.4 11.6 6th
7th 0.6 4.7 5.2 0.8 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.3 1.3 0.1 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.9 1.5 0.1 7.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.1 0.0 4.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.2 5.0 8.9 12.7 14.8 15.9 14.6 10.9 7.4 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 80.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1
16-4 39.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2
15-5 15.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 9.5% 9.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 22.0% 22.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.7% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 1.9% 11.9% 11.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
14-6 4.1% 10.4% 10.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.7
13-7 7.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 6.9
12-8 10.9% 4.5% 4.5% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 10.5
11-9 14.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.6 0.2 0.3 14.1
10-10 15.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 15.5
9-11 14.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.6
8-12 12.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.6
7-13 8.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.8
6-14 5.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.0
5-15 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%