Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
28 Loyola Chicago 81.8%   9   13 - 2 5 - 0 23 - 5 15 - 3 +12.3      +6.4 31 +6.0 37 62.4 326 +15.8 18 +14.5 1
77 Missouri St. 17.8%   13 - 6 5 - 2 20 - 10 12 - 6 +7.2      +6.0 36 +1.3 135 67.2 225 +4.3 108 +6.2 3
101 Northern Iowa 10.4%   8 - 8 5 - 2 14 - 13 11 - 7 +5.0      +4.4 64 +0.6 152 70.0 140 +2.6 130 +7.4 2
106 Drake 8.2%   11 - 6 4 - 2 17 - 12 10 - 8 +4.5      +3.4 86 +1.1 139 65.1 292 +3.8 114 +5.0 4
117 Bradley 5.6%   8 - 10 3 - 4 14 - 15 9 - 9 +3.5      +1.4 133 +2.1 108 67.7 203 -0.6 180 +1.6 6
133 Southern Illinois 3.3%   9 - 8 3 - 3 15 - 14 9 - 9 +2.1      +0.6 160 +1.5 125 58.6 351 -0.2 173 +1.4 7
169 Indiana St. 1.5%   5 - 9 1 - 4 11 - 16 7 - 11 -0.1      -1.5 219 +1.4 130 73.7 65 -0.8 186 -0.8 8
186 Valparaiso 0.9%   7 - 10 2 - 5 11 - 17 6 - 12 -0.9      -0.3 186 -0.6 188 65.0 293 -2.2 202 -1.6 9
202 Illinois St. 0.8%   7 - 9 2 - 3 12 - 17 7 - 11 -1.7      +2.4 105 -4.1 299 70.9 118 -2.4 210 +2.5 5
270 Evansville 0.1%   3 - 12 0 - 5 6 - 22 3 - 15 -6.0      -4.4 291 -1.6 219 60.3 346 -10.2 314 -11.7 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Loyola Chicago 1.2 87.9 8.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 2.6 12.0 45.1 24.8 11.1 4.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 3.2 7.1 31.4 26.7 17.6 10.1 4.7 1.7 0.6 0.1
Drake 3.8 4.0 21.1 22.8 21.6 14.9 8.8 4.5 1.8 0.5 0.0
Bradley 5.0 0.5 6.4 13.3 20.1 22.0 17.4 11.3 6.3 2.5 0.1
Southern Illinois 5.5 0.6 4.3 9.5 15.5 20.0 19.8 15.7 10.1 4.2 0.3
Indiana St. 6.9 0.1 1.3 3.7 6.9 11.1 15.0 18.9 19.5 19.7 3.9
Valparaiso 7.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.6 7.3 12.8 19.3 25.1 26.2 4.4
Illinois St. 6.9 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.1 11.1 16.5 20.3 22.1 16.2 2.7
Evansville 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 5.0 14.1 77.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Loyola Chicago 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.2 8.4 14.4 22.1 23.9 18.0 7.0
Missouri St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.8 10.8 19.1 24.4 20.9 12.5 5.0 0.9
Northern Iowa 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.6 10.1 16.9 21.4 20.5 14.9 7.5 2.1 0.3
Drake 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 9.2 15.6 19.3 20.1 16.1 9.4 3.6 1.0 0.1
Bradley 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.3 11.1 18.1 21.5 20.0 13.3 6.4 1.9 0.2
Southern Illinois 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 3.4 8.6 15.5 20.4 20.9 15.7 9.4 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
Indiana St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.9 3.2 7.3 12.6 17.1 18.8 16.7 12.2 7.1 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Valparaiso 6 - 12 0.6 3.5 9.2 17.3 22.2 20.7 14.7 7.7 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Illinois St. 7 - 11 0.3 1.6 5.8 12.4 18.2 20.5 18.1 12.7 6.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
Evansville 3 - 15 6.8 17.4 23.9 21.7 15.4 8.6 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Loyola Chicago 87.9% 78.7 7.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
Missouri St. 12.0% 5.8 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
Northern Iowa 7.1% 3.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Drake 4.0% 1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Bradley 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Indiana St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valparaiso 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Illinois St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Evansville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Loyola Chicago 81.8% 51.9% 29.9% 9   0.6 1.2 2.6 5.5 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.1 9.8 11.5 12.7 6.2 0.5 0.0 18.2 62.1%
Missouri St. 17.8% 17.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 6.2 7.5 1.8 0.2 82.2 0.5%
Northern Iowa 10.4% 10.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 89.6 0.1%
Drake 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 91.8 0.0%
Bradley 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 1.5 0.6 94.4 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.3 96.7 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 98.5 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.1 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Loyola Chicago 81.8% 6.5% 78.8% 44.8% 17.4% 6.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Missouri St. 17.8% 0.3% 17.7% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 10.4% 0.2% 10.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 8.2% 0.0% 8.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 5.6% 0.3% 5.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 3.3% 0.1% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Valparaiso 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 69.7 30.3 0.1
1st Round 99.8% 1.3 0.2 72.9 26.9 0.0
2nd Round 51.0% 0.5 49.0 48.5 2.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 19.5% 0.2 80.5 19.3 0.3
Elite Eight 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0 0.0
Final Four 2.7% 0.0 97.4 2.7
Final Game 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3