Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#101
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#130
Pace70.0#140
Improvement+4.4#25

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#64
First Shot+5.1#42
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#236
Layup/Dunks+1.8#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#72
Freethrows+2.3#34
Improvement+5.1#4

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#152
First Shot-1.1#209
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#53
Layups/Dunks+3.8#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#353
Freethrows+2.0#57
Improvement-0.7#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 11.9% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.8 12.6 13.3
.500 or above 69.7% 79.8% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 97.6% 87.4%
Conference Champion 7.1% 9.6% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round10.3% 11.8% 7.8%
Second Round1.8% 2.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Home) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 34 - 6
Quad 36 - 610 - 12
Quad 46 - 115 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 218   Nicholls St. L 58-62 83%     0 - 1 -9.1 -14.5 +5.2
  Nov 11, 2021 79   Vermont L 57-71 51%     0 - 2 -9.3 -14.1 +5.0
  Nov 17, 2021 31   @ Arkansas L 80-93 19%     0 - 3 +1.4 +8.3 -5.9
  Nov 27, 2021 80   @ St. Bonaventure W 90-80 33%     1 - 3 +19.7 +17.7 +1.6
  Dec 01, 2021 117   @ Bradley L 69-71 46%     1 - 4 0 - 1 +4.0 +1.2 +2.8
  Dec 05, 2021 99   Richmond L 52-60 57%     1 - 5 -4.8 -17.7 +12.4
  Dec 14, 2021 268   Jackson St. W 66-56 89%     2 - 5 +1.8 +4.5 -1.1
  Dec 18, 2021 200   @ Marshall W 75-60 66%     3 - 5 +15.9 +2.3 +13.8
  Dec 22, 2021 104   Liberty L 74-76 52%     3 - 6 +2.5 +6.5 -4.1
  Dec 23, 2021 66   Wyoming L 69-71 38%     3 - 7 +6.1 -6.8 +13.1
  Jan 02, 2022 270   Evansville W 83-61 89%     4 - 7 1 - 1 +13.5 +11.2 +3.3
  Jan 05, 2022 186   Valparaiso W 92-65 79%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +23.6 +18.2 +5.6
  Jan 08, 2022 77   @ Missouri St. W 85-84 32%     6 - 7 3 - 1 +10.8 +21.7 -10.9
  Jan 11, 2022 169   Indiana St. W 80-74 OT 77%     7 - 7 4 - 1 +3.4 -0.9 +3.7
  Jan 15, 2022 133   @ Southern Illinois W 69-68 51%     8 - 7 5 - 1 +5.6 +6.9 -1.2
  Jan 19, 2022 186   @ Valparaiso L 80-83 OT 63%     8 - 8 5 - 2 -1.4 +2.1 -3.3
  Jan 22, 2022 106   Drake W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 26, 2022 270   @ Evansville W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 202   Illinois St. W 81-72 82%    
  Feb 02, 2022 117   Bradley W 74-70 67%    
  Feb 05, 2022 106   @ Drake L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 09, 2022 133   Southern Illinois W 69-64 72%    
  Feb 13, 2022 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 64-74 17%    
  Feb 15, 2022 202   @ Illinois St. W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 20, 2022 77   Missouri St. W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 23, 2022 169   @ Indiana St. W 75-72 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 28   Loyola Chicago L 67-72 34%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.0 1.7 0.3 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.9 11.0 11.2 4.4 0.5 31.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.4 11.6 8.4 1.9 0.1 26.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.9 8.4 5.4 0.7 0.0 17.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.1 3.5 0.3 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 1.8 0.2 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.6 10.1 16.9 21.4 20.5 14.9 7.5 2.1 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 77.3% 1.7    1.1 0.6
14-4 40.1% 3.0    1.4 1.4 0.2
13-5 11.8% 1.8    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 1.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 3.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.3% 45.5% 35.2% 10.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.9%
15-3 2.1% 27.6% 25.4% 2.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.6 3.0%
14-4 7.5% 21.1% 20.9% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 5.9 0.3%
13-5 14.9% 14.0% 13.9% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 12.8 0.1%
12-6 20.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 18.0
11-7 21.4% 8.3% 8.3% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 19.6
10-8 16.9% 6.1% 6.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 15.9
9-9 10.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 9.7
8-10 4.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
7-11 1.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.4% 10.3% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 89.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.4 5.2 5.2 6.9 36.2 20.7 20.7 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 29.8% 10.5 6.4 8.5 8.5 6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 9.1% 11.0 9.1