Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#186
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#202
Pace65.0#293
Improvement+1.8#88

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#186
First Shot+2.9#92
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#341
Layup/Dunks+2.1#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#129
Freethrows-0.6#233
Improvement+1.9#71

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#188
First Shot-2.6#260
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#42
Layups/Dunks-2.9#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
Freethrows+2.0#60
Improvement-0.1#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 7.8% 14.7% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 11.8% 22.1% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 4.0% 12.6%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 36.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 35 - 76 - 14
Quad 46 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 88   Toledo L 61-69 32%     0 - 1 -4.0 -8.2 +3.9
  Nov 13, 2021 257   Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 OT 74%     0 - 2 -11.5 -11.8 +0.5
  Nov 17, 2021 76   @ Stanford L 60-74 16%     0 - 3 -4.1 -8.8 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2021 136   Jacksonville St. W 78-70 40%     1 - 3 +9.8 +5.7 +4.1
  Nov 23, 2021 173   Coastal Carolina L 61-64 48%     1 - 4 -3.4 -10.6 +7.1
  Nov 24, 2021 135   Tulane W 68-64 39%     2 - 4 +6.0 -0.5 +6.6
  Dec 02, 2021 106   @ Drake L 66-73 23%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +0.0 +2.7 -3.4
  Dec 05, 2021 315   @ Western Michigan W 71-60 71%     3 - 5 +4.2 -1.4 +6.6
  Dec 11, 2021 195   Charlotte L 67-68 62%     3 - 6 -5.0 -2.6 -2.5
  Dec 20, 2021 263   Eastern Michigan W 67-55 75%     4 - 6 +4.0 +0.5 +4.9
  Dec 22, 2021 340   William & Mary W 88-66 90%     5 - 6 +7.3 +13.7 -5.3
  Jan 02, 2022 202   Illinois St. W 81-76 OT 62%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +0.8 -3.7 +4.1
  Jan 05, 2022 101   @ Northern Iowa L 65-92 21%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -19.5 -5.4 -14.3
  Jan 08, 2022 133   Southern Illinois L 60-63 48%     6 - 8 1 - 3 -3.4 -2.7 -1.2
  Jan 11, 2022 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 74-81 2OT 8%     6 - 9 1 - 4 +7.8 +3.2 +5.1
  Jan 15, 2022 77   Missouri St. L 57-74 29%     6 - 10 1 - 5 -12.3 -10.6 -3.2
  Jan 19, 2022 101   Northern Iowa W 83-80 OT 37%     7 - 10 2 - 5 +5.5 +3.6 +1.7
  Jan 22, 2022 169   @ Indiana St. L 67-70 36%    
  Jan 26, 2022 117   Bradley L 66-68 45%    
  Jan 30, 2022 133   @ Southern Illinois L 59-65 29%    
  Feb 02, 2022 270   Evansville W 66-58 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 169   Indiana St. W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 09, 2022 202   @ Illinois St. L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 12, 2022 77   @ Missouri St. L 64-75 16%    
  Feb 16, 2022 28   Loyola Chicago L 60-71 17%    
  Feb 19, 2022 270   @ Evansville W 64-61 58%    
  Feb 23, 2022 106   Drake L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 117   @ Bradley L 64-71 25%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 7.1 2.2 0.1 12.8 6th
7th 0.3 4.1 10.3 4.3 0.2 19.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.2 12.5 6.3 0.5 0.0 25.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 6.9 11.3 5.5 0.6 0.0 26.2 9th
10th 0.6 1.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.4 10th
Total 0.6 3.5 9.2 17.3 22.2 20.7 14.7 7.7 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 6.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 6.7% 6.7% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.8% 3.2% 3.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
9-9 7.7% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.5
8-10 14.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.5
7-11 20.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 20.5
6-12 22.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 22.1
5-13 17.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.2
4-14 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
3-15 3.5% 3.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%