Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#133
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#173
Pace58.6#351
Improvement+3.3#47

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#160
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#284
Layup/Dunks+1.7#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#98
Freethrows+0.5#140
Improvement+1.6#81

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#125
First Shot+2.5#91
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#265
Layups/Dunks-1.7#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#12
Freethrows+0.4#162
Improvement+1.7#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.1% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 54.5% 73.9% 44.5%
.500 or above in Conference 51.4% 72.0% 40.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.1% 1.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round3.3% 4.1% 2.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 34 - 56 - 13
Quad 49 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 292   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-69 76%     0 - 1 -8.3 -11.3 +3.1
  Nov 12, 2021 314   Austin Peay W 73-55 89%     1 - 1 +6.8 +3.8 +5.2
  Nov 19, 2021 69   Colorado W 67-63 29%     2 - 1 +11.8 +9.5 +3.0
  Nov 21, 2021 217   Northeastern L 47-59 67%     2 - 2 -14.5 -23.3 +8.0
  Nov 22, 2021 45   Creighton L 64-66 22%     2 - 3 +8.2 +6.9 +1.0
  Nov 26, 2021 277   Alcorn St. W 62-59 85%     3 - 3 -6.1 -3.3 -2.3
  Dec 01, 2021 270   @ Evansville W 54-52 71%     4 - 3 1 - 0 -1.5 +0.2 -1.0
  Dec 04, 2021 309   Southern Miss W 66-41 89%     5 - 3 +14.0 +0.6 +17.5
  Dec 11, 2021 121   @ Tulsa L 65-69 37%     5 - 4 +1.4 +3.9 -3.0
  Dec 15, 2021 316   Southeast Missouri St. W 80-55 90%     6 - 4 +13.2 +5.9 +9.8
  Dec 22, 2021 39   @ San Francisco L 52-64 15%     6 - 5 +1.1 -10.2 +10.6
  Dec 28, 2021 322   Grambling St. W 75-64 91%     7 - 5 -1.8 -5.2 +3.2
  Jan 08, 2022 186   @ Valparaiso W 63-60 52%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +4.6 +1.3 +3.8
  Jan 12, 2022 77   @ Missouri St. L 76-81 23%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +4.8 +10.7 -6.3
  Jan 15, 2022 101   Northern Iowa L 68-69 49%     8 - 7 2 - 2 +1.5 +2.4 -1.0
  Jan 17, 2022 106   Drake L 59-60 51%     8 - 8 2 - 3 +1.0 -5.9 +6.7
  Jan 19, 2022 169   Indiana St. W 63-55 68%     9 - 8 3 - 3 +5.4 -1.9 +8.3
  Jan 22, 2022 117   @ Bradley L 61-65 34%    
  Jan 25, 2022 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 55-68 11%    
  Jan 27, 2022 28   Loyola Chicago L 57-65 26%    
  Jan 30, 2022 186   Valparaiso W 65-59 71%    
  Feb 02, 2022 77   Missouri St. L 64-67 42%    
  Feb 05, 2022 202   @ Illinois St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 09, 2022 101   @ Northern Iowa L 64-69 28%    
  Feb 12, 2022 270   Evansville W 64-53 85%    
  Feb 15, 2022 117   Bradley W 64-63 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 169   @ Indiana St. L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 23, 2022 202   Illinois St. W 71-65 73%    
  Feb 26, 2022 106   @ Drake L 61-66 31%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 4.6 1.8 0.1 9.5 3rd
4th 0.2 4.1 7.9 3.1 0.1 15.5 4th
5th 0.1 4.2 10.8 4.4 0.4 0.0 20.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 10.5 5.3 0.4 0.0 19.8 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 8.0 5.1 0.4 15.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.8 3.5 0.4 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.9 1.5 0.3 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.4 8.6 15.5 20.4 20.9 15.7 9.4 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 58.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.3% 15.9% 15.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.2% 9.9% 9.9% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 3.9% 10.6% 10.6% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.5
11-7 9.4% 6.4% 6.4% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.8
10-8 15.7% 4.9% 4.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 14.9
9-9 20.9% 3.6% 3.6% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 20.2
8-10 20.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 20.1
7-11 15.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 15.3
6-12 8.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.5
5-13 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
4-14 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.3 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%