Evansville
Missouri Valley
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#270
Expected Predictive Rating-10.2#314
Pace60.3#346
Improvement-1.6#251

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#291
First Shot+0.1#175
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#358
Layup/Dunks-6.6#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#17
Freethrows-0.6#228
Improvement-0.8#235

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#219
First Shot-4.5#314
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#14
Layups/Dunks-5.6#341
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#118
Freethrows+0.1#183
Improvement-0.8#221
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 87.4% 73.7% 91.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 32 - 112 - 21
Quad 44 - 26 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 74   @ Cincinnati L 43-65 8%     0 - 1 -12.1 -22.0 +9.3
  Nov 11, 2021 355   IUPUI W 60-40 90%     1 - 1 +0.0 -11.3 +14.5
  Nov 13, 2021 62   @ Belmont L 43-81 7%     1 - 2 -27.2 -24.1 -4.5
  Nov 20, 2021 81   Central Florida L 59-75 16%     1 - 3 -11.4 -5.3 -7.8
  Nov 22, 2021 167   Rice L 104-109 3OT 28%     1 - 4 -5.1 +6.9 -10.9
  Nov 23, 2021 79   Vermont L 49-58 11%     1 - 5 -1.8 -16.5 +14.1
  Nov 24, 2021 152   Akron L 60-69 26%     1 - 6 -8.4 -6.2 -3.4
  Nov 28, 2021 352   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-54 75%     2 - 6 +3.0 +1.4 +3.1
  Dec 01, 2021 133   Southern Illinois L 52-54 29%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2
  Dec 04, 2021 290   Tennessee Tech W 59-51 66%     3 - 7 -2.1 -14.5 +12.8
  Dec 08, 2021 316   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 73-75 53%     3 - 8 -8.8 -5.3 -3.5
  Jan 02, 2022 101   @ Northern Iowa L 61-83 11%     3 - 9 0 - 2 -14.5 -7.1 -8.4
  Jan 08, 2022 106   Drake L 59-60 22%     3 - 10 0 - 3 +1.0 -7.0 +7.8
  Jan 12, 2022 117   @ Bradley L 47-79 13%     3 - 11 0 - 4 -26.0 -19.2 -9.0
  Jan 18, 2022 28   Loyola Chicago L 48-77 8%     3 - 12 0 - 5 -19.2 -11.0 -13.6
  Jan 21, 2022 202   @ Illinois St. L 65-72 24%    
  Jan 23, 2022 202   @ Illinois St. L 65-72 24%    
  Jan 26, 2022 101   Northern Iowa L 62-71 22%    
  Jan 29, 2022 77   @ Missouri St. L 57-73 7%    
  Feb 02, 2022 186   @ Valparaiso L 58-66 23%    
  Feb 05, 2022 117   Bradley L 60-67 28%    
  Feb 08, 2022 169   @ Indiana St. L 61-69 20%    
  Feb 10, 2022 169   Indiana St. L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 133   @ Southern Illinois L 53-64 15%    
  Feb 16, 2022 106   @ Drake L 57-70 11%    
  Feb 19, 2022 186   Valparaiso L 61-64 42%    
  Feb 23, 2022 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 51-72 2%    
  Feb 26, 2022 77   Missouri St. L 60-71 17%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 6.2 4.6 0.9 0.0 14.1 9th
10th 6.8 17.4 23.7 19.5 8.8 1.7 0.1 77.8 10th
Total 6.8 17.4 23.9 21.7 15.4 8.6 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-13 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.6
4-14 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
3-15 21.7% 21.7
2-16 23.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.9
1-17 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.3
0-18 6.8% 6.8
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.6%