Loyola Chicago
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#28
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#18
Pace62.4#326
Improvement-2.2#273

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#31
First Shot+7.3#21
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#252
Layup/Dunks+5.3#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#34
Freethrows+0.9#104
Improvement-2.2#299

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#37
First Shot+3.4#68
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#22
Layups/Dunks+0.5#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#85
Freethrows+1.6#77
Improvement-0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 2.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 9.9% 12.1% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 24.7% 29.1% 9.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.8% 84.7% 71.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.1% 66.9% 47.9%
Average Seed 8.1 7.8 9.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 87.9% 92.9% 70.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.5% 5.9% 8.5%
First Round78.8% 81.9% 67.9%
Second Round44.8% 48.4% 32.4%
Sweet Sixteen17.4% 19.2% 11.0%
Elite Eight6.6% 7.4% 4.0%
Final Four2.6% 2.9% 1.5%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 2
Quad 25 - 26 - 4
Quad 310 - 117 - 5
Quad 49 - 025 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 302   Coppin St. W 103-45 97%     1 - 0 +47.3 +17.0 +24.6
  Nov 13, 2021 221   Florida Gulf Coast W 89-77 94%     2 - 0 +6.7 +9.8 -3.5
  Nov 16, 2021 350   Chicago St. W 92-56 99%     3 - 0 +19.0 +9.5 +8.4
  Nov 20, 2021 257   Illinois-Chicago W 80-63 96%     4 - 0 +9.5 +11.7 -0.4
  Nov 24, 2021 20   Michigan St. L 61-63 46%     4 - 1 +11.3 -4.1 +15.4
  Nov 25, 2021 8   Auburn L 53-62 30%     4 - 2 +8.8 -5.3 +13.0
  Nov 26, 2021 119   Arizona St. W 77-59 80%     5 - 2 +21.4 +18.4 +5.1
  Dec 01, 2021 169   Indiana St. W 88-76 91%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +9.4 +18.0 -8.2
  Dec 04, 2021 94   @ DePaul W 68-64 64%     7 - 2 +12.5 -0.7 +13.3
  Dec 10, 2021 85   @ Vanderbilt W 69-58 62%     8 - 2 +20.2 +14.4 +7.8
  Jan 06, 2022 39   San Francisco W 79-74 57%     9 - 2 +15.6 +17.9 -1.9
  Jan 08, 2022 117   Bradley W 78-71 OT 85%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +8.0 +0.7 +6.8
  Jan 11, 2022 186   Valparaiso W 81-74 2OT 92%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +3.6 +0.6 +2.5
  Jan 15, 2022 169   @ Indiana St. W 64-56 82%     12 - 2 4 - 0 +10.4 -7.0 +17.4
  Jan 18, 2022 270   @ Evansville W 77-48 92%     13 - 2 5 - 0 +25.5 +18.3 +12.6
  Jan 22, 2022 77   Missouri St. W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 25, 2022 133   Southern Illinois W 68-55 89%    
  Jan 27, 2022 133   @ Southern Illinois W 65-57 74%    
  Jan 30, 2022 106   @ Drake W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 02, 2022 202   Illinois St. W 79-63 94%    
  Feb 06, 2022 77   @ Missouri St. W 70-67 58%    
  Feb 09, 2022 117   @ Bradley W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 13, 2022 101   Northern Iowa W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 16, 2022 186   @ Valparaiso W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 106   Drake W 71-61 84%    
  Feb 21, 2022 202   @ Illinois St. W 76-65 85%    
  Feb 23, 2022 270   Evansville W 72-51 98%    
  Feb 26, 2022 101   @ Northern Iowa W 72-67 66%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.1 12.4 21.8 23.9 18.0 7.0 87.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.9 2.0 0.3 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.2 8.4 14.4 22.1 23.9 18.0 7.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.0    7.0
17-1 100.0% 18.0    18.0
16-2 100.0% 23.9    23.8 0.1
15-3 98.5% 21.8    20.0 1.8 0.0
14-4 86.2% 12.4    8.4 3.7 0.3
13-5 48.9% 4.1    1.4 2.0 0.7 0.1
12-6 15.3% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 87.9% 87.9 78.7 7.8 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.0% 99.5% 66.5% 33.0% 3.7 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.6%
17-1 18.0% 97.3% 61.4% 35.8% 5.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.1 4.1 3.5 2.7 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 92.9%
16-2 23.9% 92.2% 56.7% 35.5% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 2.8 1.5 0.2 1.9 82.0%
15-3 22.1% 83.4% 50.4% 33.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.1 4.5 1.1 0.0 3.7 66.6%
14-4 14.4% 71.6% 45.2% 26.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.2 2.0 0.1 4.1 48.2%
13-5 8.4% 52.2% 37.8% 14.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.1 4.0 23.2%
12-6 4.2% 37.4% 31.6% 5.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 8.6%
11-7 1.4% 25.6% 24.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.7%
10-8 0.4% 22.7% 22.7% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
9-9 0.1% 34.9% 34.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 81.8% 51.9% 29.9% 8.1 0.6 1.2 2.6 5.5 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.1 9.8 11.5 12.7 6.2 0.5 0.0 18.2 62.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.7% 100.0% 3.1 10.8 22.2 28.4 28.1 8.7 1.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 99.2% 4.8 1.5 0.9 12.0 28.1 26.5 18.9 8.6 2.3 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 97.3% 5.1 0.5 10.2 20.3 29.1 23.7 9.2 3.4 0.7 0.2