Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#202
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#210
Pace70.9#118
Improvement+2.5#69

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#105
First Shot+3.1#87
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#233
Layup/Dunks-2.0#260
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#58
Freethrows+2.4#30
Improvement+2.0#68

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#299
First Shot-3.3#285
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#249
Layups/Dunks-2.6#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#60
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#183
Freethrows-2.2#307
Improvement+0.5#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 11.5% 14.1% 3.2%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 27.8% 8.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 2.4% 17.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Home) - 76.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 34 - 65 - 15
Quad 48 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 256   UNC Wilmington W 68-63 71%     1 - 0 -2.5 -7.8 +5.3
  Nov 12, 2021 263   @ Eastern Michigan L 98-103 2OT 55%     1 - 1 -7.9 +0.6 -7.2
  Nov 16, 2021 51   Murray St. L 65-77 21%     1 - 2 -5.2 -3.6 -2.0
  Nov 20, 2021 331   Bucknell W 105-100 OT 87%     2 - 2 -8.7 +0.1 -9.9
  Nov 23, 2021 71   Saint Louis L 76-82 19%     2 - 3 +1.7 +4.7 -2.8
  Nov 24, 2021 103   Buffalo L 90-106 28%     2 - 4 -11.5 +9.1 -19.1
  Dec 01, 2021 77   Missouri St. W 79-74 OT 27%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +9.7 -0.9 +10.2
  Dec 04, 2021 268   Jackson St. L 55-61 74%     3 - 5 -14.2 -14.3 -0.3
  Dec 11, 2021 350   @ Chicago St. W 80-71 83%     4 - 5 -3.0 +8.9 -11.2
  Dec 18, 2021 242   Ball St. W 85-64 70%     5 - 5 +14.0 +6.8 +7.1
  Dec 21, 2021 318   Texas San Antonio W 81-64 84%     6 - 5 +4.9 +4.3 +1.0
  Dec 29, 2021 25   @ Wisconsin L 85-89 OT 7%     6 - 6 +11.3 +19.1 -7.8
  Jan 02, 2022 186   @ Valparaiso L 76-81 OT 38%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -3.4 -2.2 -0.8
  Jan 12, 2022 106   @ Drake L 75-86 21%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -4.0 +9.3 -14.0
  Jan 16, 2022 117   Bradley W 74-65 40%     7 - 8 2 - 2 +10.0 +6.5 +4.0
  Jan 19, 2022 77   @ Missouri St. L 63-88 14%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -15.2 -5.2 -10.8
  Jan 21, 2022 270   Evansville W 72-65 76%    
  Jan 23, 2022 270   Evansville W 72-65 76%    
  Jan 26, 2022 106   Drake L 71-75 39%    
  Jan 29, 2022 101   @ Northern Iowa L 72-81 18%    
  Feb 02, 2022 28   @ Loyola Chicago L 63-79 6%    
  Feb 05, 2022 133   Southern Illinois L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 09, 2022 186   Valparaiso W 73-71 59%    
  Feb 12, 2022 169   @ Indiana St. L 73-77 34%    
  Feb 15, 2022 101   Northern Iowa L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 19, 2022 117   @ Bradley L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 21, 2022 28   Loyola Chicago L 65-76 15%    
  Feb 23, 2022 133   @ Southern Illinois L 65-71 27%    
  Feb 26, 2022 169   Indiana St. W 76-75 55%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 7.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 6.2 1.9 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 9.2 3.4 0.2 16.5 6th
7th 0.3 3.9 10.5 5.4 0.4 20.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.5 10.7 5.8 0.6 0.0 22.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.2 7.2 3.6 0.5 16.2 9th
10th 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 10th
Total 0.3 1.6 5.8 12.4 18.2 20.5 18.1 12.7 6.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 6.3% 6.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.9% 4.4% 4.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
11-7 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
10-8 6.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3
9-9 12.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.5
8-10 18.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 18.0
7-11 20.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 20.4
6-12 18.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.2
5-13 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
4-14 5.8% 5.8
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%